UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
UNH has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
VCEL
Vericel Corporation
VCEL has the edge over UNH overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
UNH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
UNH's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
VCEL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
VCEL's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
UNH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 18x | $405 | — |
| Cheap | 19x | $325 | -20% |
| Fair | 23x | $410 | +1.2% |
| Current | 23x | $405 | — |
| Expensive | 30x | $526 | +30% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UNH's PE is in its fair range at 23x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
VCEL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 67x | $57.42 | — |
| Current | 88x | $57.42 | — |
| Cheap | 106x | $68.69 | +20% |
| Fair | 277x | $180 | +214% |
| Expensive | 1,180x | $767 | +1236% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
VCEL has the edge over UNH in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
UNH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect UNH's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
VCEL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
VCEL has the edge over UNH on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
UNH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $22.65 | +29% |
| Q3 2026 | $17.55 | -8.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $15.58 | -33% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.28 | -44% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.23 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.17 | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $23.09 | +53% |
| Q1 2025 | $23.89 | +46% |
| Q4 2024 | $15.51 | -35% |
UNH's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $17.55 over the past year, against $23.89 in early 2025.
VCEL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.86 | +32% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.65 | +150% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.48 | +243% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.43 | +760% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.32 | +60% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.26 | +225% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.14 | +600% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.05 | +400% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.20 | +$0.27 |
VCEL has the edge over UNH on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
UNH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $112.7B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $112B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $111.7B | +2% |
| Q4 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $111.6B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $109.6B | +9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.8B | +6.8% |
UNH's revenue has held roughly level: $113B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.8% | +2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.1% | +2.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.1% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3% | -7.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8% | -4.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.6% | -3.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.3% | +0.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.7% | -0.4 points |
UNH's operating margin was 5.8% last quarter, up 2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
VCEL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $85.4M | +26% |
| Q2 2026 | $77.5M | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | $68.4M | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $92.9M | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $67.5M | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $63.2M | +20% |
| Q1 2025 | $52.6M | +2.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $75.4M | +16% |
VCEL has the edge over UNH on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | +9.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 0.6% | +3.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | -12% | +13 points |
| Q4 2025 | 24% | -0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.1% | +9.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | -3.2% | +8.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | -24% | -14 points |
| Q4 2024 | 25% | +4.9 points |
VCEL has the edge over UNH on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
UNH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.3B | -16% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.3B | +63% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.1B | +79% |
| Q4 2025 | $160M | -89% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.1B | -61% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.3B | +6.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.6B | +1037% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.5B | +$7.6B |
UNH still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2022 peak: $22.8B over the past year.
VCEL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $15.7M | -19% |
| Q2 2026 | $14.3M | +17504% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.1M | +$22.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $12.8M | +52% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.5M | +$28.7M |
| Q2 2025 | $81K | -95% |
| Q1 2025 | -$7.6M | -$797K |
| Q4 2024 | $8.5M | +276% |
VCEL generated $58M in free cash flow over the past year, up 184% from the year before.
UNH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -4M shares |
| 1 year | -0.7% | -6M shares |
| 3 years | -3.6% | -34M shares |
| 5 years | -5.5% | -53M shares |
| Available history | -6.6% | -64M shares |
UNH has the edge over VCEL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $3B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
UNH spent $5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 52% from the year before.
VCEL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.2% | +650K shares |
| 1 year | +2% | +1.1M shares |
| 3 years | +11% | +5.3M shares |
| 5 years | +13% | +6.3M shares |
| Available history | +20% | +8.8M shares |
VCEL has 53M diluted shares, up 2% from a year ago.
UNH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.4x | Healthy |
UNH's net debt is about 1.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
VCEL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -3.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -4.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -3.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -4.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -5.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -8.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -18.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -7.4x | Net Cash |
VCEL has the edge over UNH on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
UNH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.0 | Neutral |
UNH's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
VCEL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 75.1 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 69.5 | Neutral |
VCEL's weekly RSI is 75 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 70 (neutral).
UNH PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | UNH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 26x | 11% below |
| PE % | 47 | 29 | 18 pts above |
UNH has the edge over VCEL on valuation relative to its sector.
VCEL PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | VCEL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 88x | 26x | 242% above |
| PE % | 10 | 29 | 19 pts below |
VCEL is trading at 88x earnings, a 242% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
UNH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $394.2 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $400.5 | 1.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $361.2 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $376.0 | 7.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $446.6 | 9.3% below |
UNH has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20-, 50- and 100-week averages, but 9.3% below its 200-week average.
VCEL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $44.4 | 29% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 31% above |
| 50 week MA | $39.0 | 47% above |
| 100 week MA | $41.0 | 40% above |
| 200 week MA | $40.5 | 42% above |
VCEL has the edge over UNH on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
UNH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $296.0 | $340.8 | +15% |
| 2021 | $340.8 | $495.4 | +45% |
| 2022 | $495.4 | $531.3 | +7.3% |
| 2023 | $531.3 | $526.5 | -0.9% |
| 2024 | $526.5 | $510.0 | -3.1% |
| 2025 | $510.0 | $331.8 | -35% |
| 2026 YTD | $331.8 | $405.1 | +22% |
UNH has finished three years in a row lower, and it's up 22% so far in 2026.
VCEL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $17.5 | $29.0 | +66% |
| 2021 | $29.0 | $41.6 | +44% |
| 2022 | $41.6 | $23.8 | -43% |
| 2023 | $23.8 | $35.6 | +49% |
| 2024 | $35.6 | $57.3 | +61% |
| 2025 | $57.3 | $37.7 | -34% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.7 | $57.4 | +52% |
VCEL has the edge over UNH on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.