TM
Toyota Motor Corporation
TM has the edge over TSLA overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
TSLA's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
TM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
TM's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
TSLA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
TSLA's revenue and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
TM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.9x | $175 | -16% |
| Current | 9.4x | $210 | — |
| Fair | 10x | $225 | +7.5% |
| Expensive | 13x | $290 | +38% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TM has the edge over TSLA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
TSLA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 60x | $54.70 | -86% |
| Fair | 174x | $158 | -60% |
| Forward | 196x | $397 | — |
| Expensive | 415x | $378 | -4.9% |
| Current | 437x | $397 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TSLA's PE is in its expensive range at 437x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 196x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
TM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect TM's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
TSLA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for TSLA, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
TM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $22.31 | +9.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $18.69 | -17% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.86 | -26% |
| Q3 2025 | $22.19 | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $20.41 | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $22.57 | -1.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $24.03 | +15% |
| Q3 2024 | $19.86 | +11% |
TM has the edge over TSLA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TSLA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.03 | +123% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.91 | -39% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.08 | -38% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.09 | -40% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.08 | -47% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.50 | -59% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.73 | -51% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.82 | -53% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.04 | -53% |
TSLA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.91 over the past year, against $4.30 in late 2023.
TM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $85.9B | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $80.4B | +3.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $85.9B | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.6B | +8.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.8B | +3.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $77.5B | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $77.7B | +2.9% |
| Q3 2024 | $71.7B | +0.1% |
TM has the edge over TSLA on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.9% | -1.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.5% | -4.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8.8% | -1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6.8% | -3.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9.5% | -1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9% | -1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 9.8% | -4.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 10% | -2.5 points |
TM has the edge over TSLA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TSLA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $28B | -0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $28.2B | +26% |
| Q1 2026 | $22.4B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $24.9B | -3.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $28.1B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $22.5B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $19.3B | -9.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $25.7B | +2.1% |
TSLA's revenue has picked up after two years of holding roughly level: $28B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.6% | -3.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.4% | -2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.2% | +2.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.7% | -0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.8% | -5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.1% | -2.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2.1% | -3.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.2% | -2 points |
TSLA's operating margin was 2.6% last quarter, down 3.2 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
TM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$4.8B | -221% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.5B | +153% |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.1B | +$320.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.3B | +$610.4M |
| Q2 2025 | $4B | +$4B |
| Q1 2025 | $592.5M | +$592.7M |
| Q4 2024 | -$3.4B | +$1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.9B | -$637.3M |
TM has burned cash in most quarters: −$7.7B over the past year, against −$711M the year before.
TSLA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | -62% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.1B | -848% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +117% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | -30% |
| Q3 2025 | $4B | +46% |
| Q2 2025 | $146M | -89% |
| Q1 2025 | $664M | +$3.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2B | -1.6% |
TSLA has the edge over TM on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
TM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -6.1% | -79.5M shares |
| 1 year | -6.1% | -79.4M shares |
| 3 years | -9.7% | -132M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -174M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -202M shares |
TM has the edge over TSLA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $22.9B |
| Q1 2026 | $50,144 |
| Q4 2025 | $50,144 |
| Q3 2025 | $37,608 |
| Q2 2025 | $250.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $835.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $891.9M |
| Q3 2024 | $5.5B |
TM spent $22.9B buying back its own shares over the past year, about three times what it spent the year before.
TSLA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +15M shares |
| 3 years | +1.4% | +48M shares |
| 5 years | +5.1% | +172M shares |
| Available history | +33% | +886M shares |
TSLA has 3.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
TM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 4.5x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.1x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 4.7x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q3 2024 | 3.4x | Elevated |
TM's net debt is about 4.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.7 years a year ago.
TSLA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
TSLA has the edge over TM on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
TM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 60.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 77.3 | Neutral |
TM's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 77 (neutral).
TSLA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 72.6 | Neutral |
TSLA's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 73 (neutral).
TM PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | TM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.4x | 18x | 48% below |
| PE % | 35 | 47 | 12 pts below |
TM has the edge over TSLA on valuation relative to its sector.
TSLA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | TSLA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 437x | 18x | 2,324% above |
| PE % | 84 | 47 | 37 pts above |
TSLA is trading at 437x earnings, a 2324% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
TM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $196.3 | 6.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $191.3 | 9.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $201.5 | 4% above |
| 100 week MA | $194.5 | 7.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $187.8 | 12% above |
TM is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 12% above its 200-week average.
TSLA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $376.0 | 5.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $364.0 | 9.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $393.6 | 1% above |
| 100 week MA | $372.1 | 6.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $296.9 | 34% above |
TSLA is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 34% above its 200-week average.
TM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $141.3 | $150.5 | +6.5% |
| 2021 | $150.5 | $183.8 | +22% |
| 2022 | $183.8 | $137.1 | -25% |
| 2023 | $137.1 | $183.4 | +34% |
| 2024 | $183.4 | $199.5 | +8.8% |
| 2025 | $199.5 | $216.6 | +8.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $216.6 | $209.7 | -3.2% |
TM has the edge over TSLA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
TSLA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $28.7 | $220.6 | +669% |
| 2021 | $220.6 | $355.7 | +61% |
| 2022 | $355.7 | $123.2 | -65% |
| 2023 | $123.2 | $248.5 | +102% |
| 2024 | $248.5 | $431.7 | +74% |
| 2025 | $431.7 | $475.2 | +10% |
| 2026 YTD | $475.2 | $397.5 | -16% |
TSLA's yearly returns have swung widely, from +669% in 2020 to −65% in 2022. It's down 16% so far in 2026.