SERA
Sera Prognostics, Inc.
SERA offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
UNH has the edge over SERA overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
SERA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
SERA's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
UNH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
UNH's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
SERA PE Valuation
SERA has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
UNH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 18x | $405 | — |
| Cheap | 19x | $325 | -20% |
| Fair | 23x | $410 | +1.2% |
| Current | 23x | $405 | — |
| Expensive | 30x | $526 | +30% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UNH's PE is in its fair range at 23x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
SERA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses steady | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect SERA's revenue to grow, with its earnings and profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
UNH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect UNH's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
SERA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.66 | +$0.11 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.66 | +$0.19 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.64 | +$0.30 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.67 | +$0.32 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.77 | +$0.22 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.85 | +$0.13 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.94 | +$0.13 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.99 | +$0.17 |
SERA is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.66 per share over the past year, against $1.43 at its worst in late 2022.
UNH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $22.65 | +29% |
| Q3 2026 | $17.55 | -8.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $15.58 | -33% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.28 | -44% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.23 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.17 | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $23.09 | +53% |
| Q1 2025 | $23.89 | +46% |
| Q4 2024 | $15.51 | -35% |
UNH has the edge over SERA on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
SERA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42K | +163% |
| Q2 2026 | $30K | +76% |
| Q1 2026 | $14K | -63% |
| Q4 2025 | $10K | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $16K | -45% |
| Q2 2025 | $17K | -29% |
| Q4 2024 | $24K | -41% |
| Q3 2024 | $29K | -31% |
SERA's revenue is recovering but still below its 2023 peak: $42,000 last quarter, up 163% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -21160% | +34966 points |
| Q2 2026 | -33347% | +21477 points |
| Q1 2026 | -66857% | -42515 points |
| Q4 2025 | -89540% | -50278 points |
| Q3 2025 | -56125% | -25566 points |
| Q2 2025 | -54824% | -16269 points |
| Q1 2025 | -24342% | N/A |
| Q4 2024 | -39263% | -17682 points |
SERA's operating margin was −21160% last quarter, up 34965 points from the same quarter a year ago.
UNH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $112.7B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $112B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $111.7B | +2% |
| Q4 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $111.6B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $109.6B | +9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.8B | +6.8% |
UNH has the edge over SERA on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.8% | +2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.1% | +2.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.1% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3% | -7.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8% | -4.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.6% | -3.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.3% | +0.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.7% | -0.4 points |
UNH has the edge over SERA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SERA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$7.4M | -$843K |
| Q2 2026 | -$6.3M | -$573K |
| Q1 2026 | -$8.8M | -$1.2M |
| Q4 2025 | -$6.5M | -$182K |
| Q3 2025 | -$6.6M | +$432K |
| Q2 2025 | -$5.8M | +$181K |
| Q1 2025 | -$7.6M | -252% |
| Q4 2024 | -$6.3M | +$513K |
SERA has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$29M over the past year, against −$26M the year before.
UNH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.3B | -16% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.3B | +63% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.1B | +79% |
| Q4 2025 | $160M | -89% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.1B | -61% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.3B | +6.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.6B | +1037% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.5B | +$7.6B |
UNH has the edge over SERA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
SERA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +313K shares |
| 1 year | +2.6% | +1.3M shares |
| 3 years | +62% | +19.5M shares |
| 5 years | +66% | +20.3M shares |
| Available history | +180% | +32.7M shares |
SERA has 51M diluted shares, up 2.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
UNH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -4M shares |
| 1 year | -0.7% | -6M shares |
| 3 years | -3.6% | -34M shares |
| 5 years | -5.5% | -53M shares |
| Available history | -6.6% | -64M shares |
UNH has the edge over SERA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $3B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
UNH spent $5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 52% from the year before.
SERA Net Leverage
SERA's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
UNH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.4x | Healthy |
UNH's net debt is about 1.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
SERA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.3 | Neutral |
SERA's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 57 (neutral).
UNH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.0 | Neutral |
UNH's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
SERA PE vs Healthcare Sector
SERA has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
UNH PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | UNH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 26x | 11% below |
| PE % | 47 | 29 | 18 pts above |
UNH is trading at 23x earnings, a 11% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
SERA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $2.06 | 3.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $2.05 | 3.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $2.29 | 14% below |
| 100 week MA | $2.97 | 33% below |
| 200 week MA | $4.19 | 53% below |
SERA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 53% below its 200-week average.
UNH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $394.2 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $400.5 | 1.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $361.2 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $376.0 | 7.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $446.6 | 9.3% below |
UNH has the edge over SERA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
SERA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $11.0 | $8.00 | -27% |
| 2022 | $8.00 | $1.60 | -80% |
| 2023 | $1.60 | $5.98 | +274% |
| 2024 | $5.98 | $8.00 | +34% |
| 2025 | $8.00 | $3.52 | -56% |
| 2026 YTD | $3.52 | $1.98 | -44% |
SERA's yearly returns have swung widely, from +274% in 2023 to −80% in 2022. It's down 44% so far in 2026.
UNH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $296.0 | $340.8 | +15% |
| 2021 | $340.8 | $495.4 | +45% |
| 2022 | $495.4 | $531.3 | +7.3% |
| 2023 | $531.3 | $526.5 | -0.9% |
| 2024 | $526.5 | $510.0 | -3.1% |
| 2025 | $510.0 | $331.8 | -35% |
| 2026 YTD | $331.8 | $405.1 | +22% |
UNH has the edge over SERA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.