RKLB
Rocket Lab USA, Inc.
RKLB has a slight edge over UPS overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc.
UPS has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
RKLB Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
RKLB's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
UPS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
UPS's cash flow is currently healthy, and its revenue, profitability and balance sheet are stable.
RKLB PE Valuation
RKLB has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
UPS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 14x | $73.78 | -33% |
| Forward | 14x | $110 | — |
| Fair | 18x | $92.54 | -16% |
| Current | 21x | $110 | — |
| Expensive | 29x | $148 | +34% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UPS's PE is in its expensive range at 21x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
RKLB Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect RKLB's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
UPS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for UPS, with profitability improving.
RKLB Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.36 | +$0.03 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.27 | +$0.19 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.32 | +$0.09 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.37 | +$0.01 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.39 | -$0.02 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.46 | -$0.11 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.41 | -$0.04 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.38 | $0.00 |
RKLB is still losing money, but less than at its worst: $0.36 per share over the past year, against $0.46 at its worst in mid-2025.
UPS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.96 | +53% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.20 | -20% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.38 | -20% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.18 | -9.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.56 | -2.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.46 | -2.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.71 | +9.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.85 | -0.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.75 | -13% |
UPS has the edge over RKLB on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RKLB Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $267.8M | +73% |
| Q2 2026 | $234.1M | +62% |
| Q1 2026 | $200.3M | +63% |
| Q4 2025 | $179.7M | +36% |
| Q3 2025 | $155.1M | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $144.5M | +36% |
| Q1 2025 | $122.6M | +32% |
| Q4 2024 | $132.4M | +121% |
RKLB has the edge over UPS on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -30% | +8.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | -25% | +17 points |
| Q1 2026 | -28% | +20 points |
| Q4 2025 | -28% | +11 points |
| Q3 2025 | -38% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | -41% | -0.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | -48% | -1.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | -39% | +41 points |
RKLB's operating margin was −30% last quarter, up 8.5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
UPS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $22.9B | +6.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $22.8B | +7.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $21.2B | -1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $24.5B | -3.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $21.4B | -3.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $21.2B | -2.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $21.5B | -0.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $25.3B | +1.5% |
UPS's revenue is recovering but still below its 2021 peak: $22.9B last quarter, up 6.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.6% | -0.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4.1% | -4.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 6% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | -1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4% | -0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.6% | -0.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.7% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 12% | +1.6 points |
UPS has the edge over RKLB on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RKLB Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$23.9M | +$45.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$110.1M | -$54.8M |
| Q1 2026 | -$77.4M | +$5.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$114.2M | -$90.2M |
| Q3 2025 | -$69.4M | -$27.5M |
| Q2 2025 | -$55.3M | -$26.9M |
| Q1 2025 | -$82.9M | -$61.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$23.9M | +$28.7M |
RKLB has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$326M over the past year, against −$232M the year before.
UPS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.4B | +59% |
| Q2 2026 | $166M | +$941M |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | -17% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.6B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.5B | +131% |
| Q2 2025 | -$775M | -173% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.4B | -37% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.2B | +512% |
UPS has the edge over RKLB on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RKLB Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.6% | +22.6M shares |
| 1 year | +23% | +124M shares |
| 3 years | +35% | +168M shares |
| 5 years | +46% | +204M shares |
RKLB has 652M diluted shares, up 23% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
UPS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.5% | +4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6M shares |
| 5 years | -3.1% | -27M shares |
| Available history | -2% | -17M shares |
UPS has the edge over RKLB on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $1B |
| Q4 2024 | — |
UPS hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
RKLB Net Leverage
RKLB's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
UPS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.3x | Healthy |
UPS's net debt is about 1.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.5 years a year ago.
RKLB Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 46.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.6 | Neutral |
RKLB's weekly RSI is 47 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 28 (neutral).
UPS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 74.5 | Neutral |
UPS's weekly RSI is 59 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 75 (neutral).
RKLB PE vs Industrials Sector
RKLB has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
UPS PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | UPS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 24x | 12% below |
| PE % | 73 | 58 | 15 pts above |
UPS is trading at 21x earnings, a 12% discount to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
RKLB Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $61.4 | 4.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $68.1 | 5.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $77.6 | 17% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.5 | 13% above |
| 200 week MA | $31.4 | 104% above |
RKLB's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 104% above its 200-week average.
UPS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $100.9 | 9.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $104.2 | 5.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $104.6 | 5.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $103.1 | 7% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.4 | 15% below |
UPS has the edge over RKLB on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RKLB Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.82 | $10.3 | +4.9% |
| 2021 | $10.3 | $12.0 | +17% |
| 2022 | $12.0 | $3.77 | -69% |
| 2023 | $3.77 | $5.53 | +47% |
| 2024 | $5.53 | $27.2 | +392% |
| 2025 | $27.2 | $70.7 | +160% |
| 2026 YTD | $70.7 | $64.1 | -9.3% |
RKLB's yearly returns have swung widely, from +392% in 2024 to −69% in 2022. It's down 9.3% so far in 2026.
UPS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $118.9 | $172.2 | +45% |
| 2021 | $172.2 | $212.2 | +23% |
| 2022 | $212.2 | $177.0 | -17% |
| 2023 | $177.0 | $157.2 | -11% |
| 2024 | $157.2 | $126.1 | -20% |
| 2025 | $126.1 | $100.5 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $100.5 | $110.4 | +9.8% |
UPS has the edge over RKLB on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.