UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc.
UPS's fundamentals are mixed: free cash flow grew 44%, but its operating margin fell 2 points to 7.1%. At 21x earnings, it's trading above its usual 18x. Analysts expect strong earnings growth.
UPS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
UPS's cash flow is currently healthy, and its revenue, profitability and balance sheet are stable.
UPS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 14x | $73.78 | -33% |
| Forward | 14x | $110 | — |
| Fair | 18x | $92.54 | -16% |
| Current | 21x | $110 | — |
| Expensive | 29x | $148 | +34% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UPS's PE is in its expensive range at 21x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
UPS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for UPS, with profitability improving.
UPS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.96 | +53% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.20 | -20% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.38 | -20% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.18 | -9.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.56 | -2.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.46 | -2.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.71 | +9.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.85 | -0.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.75 | -13% |
UPS's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $5.20 over the past year, against $14.68 in late 2021.
UPS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $22.9B | +6.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $22.8B | +7.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $21.2B | -1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $24.5B | -3.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $21.4B | -3.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $21.2B | -2.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $21.5B | -0.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $25.3B | +1.5% |
UPS's revenue is recovering but still below its 2021 peak: $22.9B last quarter, up 6.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.6% | -0.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4.1% | -4.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 6% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | -1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4% | -0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.6% | -0.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.7% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 12% | +1.6 points |
UPS's operating margin was 7.6% last quarter, down 0.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
UPS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.4B | +59% |
| Q2 2026 | $166M | +$941M |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | -17% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.6B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.5B | +131% |
| Q2 2025 | -$775M | -173% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.4B | -37% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.2B | +512% |
UPS still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2022 peak: $6.4B over the past year.
UPS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.5% | +4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6M shares |
| 5 years | -3.1% | -27M shares |
| Available history | -2% | -17M shares |
UPS has 852M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $1B |
| Q4 2024 | — |
UPS hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
UPS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.3x | Healthy |
UPS's net debt is about 1.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.5 years a year ago.
UPS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 74.5 | Neutral |
UPS's weekly RSI is 59 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 75 (neutral).
UPS PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | UPS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 24x | 12% below |
| PE % | 73 | 58 | 15 pts above |
UPS is trading at 21x earnings, a 12% discount to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
UPS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $100.9 | 9.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $104.2 | 5.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $104.6 | 5.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $103.1 | 7% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.4 | 15% below |
UPS has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20-, 50- and 100-week averages, but 15% below its 200-week average.
UPS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $118.9 | $172.2 | +45% |
| 2021 | $172.2 | $212.2 | +23% |
| 2022 | $212.2 | $177.0 | -17% |
| 2023 | $177.0 | $157.2 | -11% |
| 2024 | $157.2 | $126.1 | -20% |
| 2025 | $126.1 | $100.5 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $100.5 | $110.4 | +9.8% |
UPS has finished four years in a row lower, and it's up 9.8% so far in 2026.