RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
RIVN offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
W
Wayfair Inc.
W has the edge over RIVN overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
RIVN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
RIVN's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
W Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
W's cash flow is currently healthy, and its revenue, profitability and balance sheet are stable.
RIVN PE Valuation
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
W PE Valuation
W has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RIVN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect RIVN's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
W Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for W, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RIVN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.25 | +$0.83 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.58 | +$0.62 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.92 | +$0.77 |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.07 | +$1.62 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.08 | +$2.52 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.20 | +$2.76 |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.69 | +$2.08 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.69 | +$1.05 |
RIVN has the edge over W on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
W Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.81 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$1.26 | +$1.29 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.47 | -$0.08 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.35 | +$0.49 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.44 | +$1.57 |
| Q3 2025 | -$2.55 | +$1.89 |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.39 | +$2.85 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.84 | +$2.47 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.01 | +$2.46 |
W is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.26 per share over the past year, against $12.72 at its worst in early 2023.
RIVN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +38% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | -26% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.6B | +78% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B | +32% |
RIVN's revenue is growing: $2.2B last quarter, up 38% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -41% | +22 points |
| Q2 2026 | -50% | +35 points |
| Q1 2026 | -64% | -11 points |
| Q4 2025 | -65% | -27 points |
| Q3 2025 | -63% | +71 points |
| Q2 2025 | -86% | +33 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +70 points |
| Q4 2024 | -38% | +82 points |
RIVN's operating margin was −41% last quarter, up 22 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2021.
W Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.4B | +9.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.5B | +7.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.9B | +7.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.3B | +6.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | +8.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.3B | +5% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.7B | 0% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.1B | +0.2% |
W's revenue has grown year over year for eight quarters in a row: $3.4B last quarter, up 9.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.1% | +1.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3% | +2.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.4% | +4.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.5% | +6.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.2% | +3.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5% | +1.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | -4.5% | +4.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -3.8% | +1.8 points |
W has the edge over RIVN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RIVN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.1B | -$703M |
| Q2 2026 | -$849M | -$451M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -$549M |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.1B | -234% |
| Q3 2025 | -$421M | +$732M |
| Q2 2025 | -$398M | +$639M |
| Q1 2025 | -$526M | +$997M |
| Q4 2024 | $856M | +$2.3B |
RIVN has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$4.2B over the past year, against −$489M the year before.
W Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $168M | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $334M | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | -$77M | +$24M |
| Q4 2025 | $177M | +25% |
| Q3 2025 | $128M | +300% |
| Q2 2025 | $260M | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | -$101M | +$51M |
| Q4 2024 | $142M | +28% |
W has the edge over RIVN on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RIVN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +9.1% | +121M shares |
| 1 year | +19% | +226M shares |
| 3 years | +52% | +494M shares |
RIVN has 1.4B diluted shares, up 19% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | $6M |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
W Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +4.5% | +6M shares |
| 1 year | +6.2% | +8M shares |
| 3 years | +19% | +22M shares |
| 5 years | +33% | +33.9M shares |
| Available history | +50% | +45.8M shares |
W has the edge over RIVN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | $75M |
RIVN Net Leverage
RIVN's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
W Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 4.6x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 5.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 12.7x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 33.2x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 103.9x | High |
| Q4 2021 | 5.9x | High |
W's net debt is about 2.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 13 years a year ago.
RIVN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.6 | Neutral |
RIVN's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
W Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 67.1 | Neutral |
W's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 67 (neutral).
RIVN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
W PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | W | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
W has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RIVN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.3 | 3.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $15.9 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $14.7 | 13% below |
| 200 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
RIVN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 15% below its 200-week average.
W Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $108.0 | 3.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $101.0 | 10% above |
| 50 week MA | $91.2 | 22% above |
| 100 week MA | $74.9 | 49% above |
| 200 week MA | $63.9 | 74% above |
W has the edge over RIVN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RIVN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $130.0 | $96.8 | -25% |
| 2022 | $96.8 | $19.1 | -80% |
| 2023 | $19.1 | $23.5 | +23% |
| 2024 | $23.5 | $13.7 | -42% |
| 2025 | $13.7 | $20.9 | +53% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.9 | $12.8 | -39% |
RIVN has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 39% so far in 2026.
W Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $92.1 | $252.8 | +175% |
| 2021 | $252.8 | $204.4 | -19% |
| 2022 | $204.4 | $33.6 | -84% |
| 2023 | $33.6 | $61.7 | +84% |
| 2024 | $61.7 | $43.8 | -29% |
| 2025 | $43.8 | $102.2 | +134% |
| 2026 YTD | $102.2 | $111.5 | +9.1% |
W has the edge over RIVN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.