RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
RIVN offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc.
ULTA has the edge over RIVN overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
RIVN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
RIVN's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
ULTA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
ULTA's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
RIVN PE Valuation
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ULTA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $448 | -31% |
| Fair | 20x | $561 | -14% |
| Forward | 21x | $651 | — |
| Current | 24x | $651 | — |
| Expensive | 29x | $809 | +24% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ULTA's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 21x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
RIVN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect RIVN's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ULTA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ULTA, with profitability improving.
RIVN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.25 | +$0.83 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.58 | +$0.62 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.92 | +$0.77 |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.07 | +$1.62 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.08 | +$2.52 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.20 | +$2.76 |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.69 | +$2.08 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.69 | +$1.05 |
RIVN is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.25 per share over the past year, against $7.40 at its worst in late 2022.
ULTA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $31.27 | +14% |
| Q3 2026 | $27.45 | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $26.68 | +4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $25.64 | +1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $26.05 | +4.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $26.05 | +4.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.57 | -0.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $25.34 | -2.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $24.97 | +1.3% |
ULTA has the edge over RIVN on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RIVN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +38% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | -26% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.6B | +78% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B | +32% |
RIVN has the edge over ULTA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -41% | +22 points |
| Q2 2026 | -50% | +35 points |
| Q1 2026 | -64% | -11 points |
| Q4 2025 | -65% | -27 points |
| Q3 2025 | -63% | +71 points |
| Q2 2025 | -86% | +33 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +70 points |
| Q4 2024 | -38% | +82 points |
RIVN's operating margin was −41% last quarter, up 22 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2021.
ULTA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3B | +8.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.2B | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.9B | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.9B | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.8B | +9.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.8B | +4.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.5B | -1.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.5B | +1.7% |
ULTA's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $3B last quarter, up 8.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 13% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 12% | -2.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | -1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 12% | -0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 15% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 13% | -0.6 points |
ULTA has the edge over RIVN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RIVN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.1B | -$703M |
| Q2 2026 | -$849M | -$451M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -$549M |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.1B | -234% |
| Q3 2025 | -$421M | +$732M |
| Q2 2025 | -$398M | +$639M |
| Q1 2025 | -$526M | +$997M |
| Q4 2024 | $856M | +$2.3B |
RIVN has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$4.2B over the past year, against −$489M the year before.
ULTA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $38.4M | +96% |
| Q2 2026 | $203.6M | +44% |
| Q1 2026 | $989M | +2.7% |
| Q4 2025 | -$81.6M | +$89.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $19.6M | -81% |
| Q2 2025 | $141M | +106% |
| Q1 2025 | $962.6M | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | -$171.1M | +$6M |
ULTA has the edge over RIVN on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RIVN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +9.1% | +121M shares |
| 1 year | +19% | +226M shares |
| 3 years | +52% | +494M shares |
RIVN has 1.4B diluted shares, up 19% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | $6M |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
ULTA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.1% | -902K shares |
| 1 year | -4.5% | -2M shares |
| 3 years | -14% | -6.8M shares |
| 5 years | -22% | -12M shares |
| Available history | -25% | -14.7M shares |
ULTA has the edge over RIVN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $247.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $545.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $197.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $224.7M |
| Q3 2025 | $109.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $369.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $237.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $263.6M |
ULTA spent $1.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 24% from the year before.
RIVN Net Leverage
RIVN's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
ULTA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 0.0x | Very low |
ULTA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
RIVN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.6 | Neutral |
RIVN's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
ULTA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 86.9 | Overbought |
ULTA's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 87 (overbought).
RIVN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ULTA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | ULTA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 18x | 32% above |
| PE % | 72 | 47 | 25 pts above |
ULTA is trading at 24x earnings, a 32% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
RIVN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.3 | 3.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $15.9 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $14.7 | 13% below |
| 200 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
RIVN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 15% below its 200-week average.
ULTA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $601.6 | 8.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $548.9 | 19% above |
| 50 week MA | $565.1 | 15% above |
| 100 week MA | $508.9 | 28% above |
| 200 week MA | $475.4 | 37% above |
ULTA has the edge over RIVN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RIVN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $130.0 | $96.8 | -25% |
| 2022 | $96.8 | $19.1 | -80% |
| 2023 | $19.1 | $23.5 | +23% |
| 2024 | $23.5 | $13.7 | -42% |
| 2025 | $13.7 | $20.9 | +53% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.9 | $12.8 | -39% |
RIVN has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 39% so far in 2026.
ULTA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $253.2 | $264.6 | +4.5% |
| 2021 | $264.6 | $392.4 | +48% |
| 2022 | $392.4 | $456.4 | +16% |
| 2023 | $456.4 | $490.0 | +7.4% |
| 2024 | $490.0 | $442.2 | -9.8% |
| 2025 | $442.2 | $607.5 | +37% |
| 2026 YTD | $607.5 | $651.0 | +7.2% |
ULTA has the edge over RIVN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.