RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
RIVN offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
TM
Toyota Motor Corporation
TM has the edge over RIVN overall, supported by lower modeled downside.
RIVN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
RIVN's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
TM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
TM's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
RIVN PE Valuation
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
TM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.9x | $175 | -16% |
| Current | 9.4x | $210 | — |
| Fair | 10x | $225 | +7.5% |
| Expensive | 13x | $290 | +38% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TM's PE is 9.4x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
RIVN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
RIVN has the edge over TM on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
TM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect TM's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
RIVN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.25 | +$0.83 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.58 | +$0.62 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.92 | +$0.77 |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.07 | +$1.62 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.08 | +$2.52 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.20 | +$2.76 |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.69 | +$2.08 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.69 | +$1.05 |
RIVN is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.25 per share over the past year, against $7.40 at its worst in late 2022.
TM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $22.31 | +9.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $18.69 | -17% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.86 | -26% |
| Q3 2025 | $22.19 | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $20.41 | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $22.57 | -1.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $24.03 | +15% |
| Q3 2024 | $19.86 | +11% |
TM has the edge over RIVN on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RIVN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +38% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | -26% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.6B | +78% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B | +32% |
RIVN's revenue is growing: $2.2B last quarter, up 38% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -41% | +22 points |
| Q2 2026 | -50% | +35 points |
| Q1 2026 | -64% | -11 points |
| Q4 2025 | -65% | -27 points |
| Q3 2025 | -63% | +71 points |
| Q2 2025 | -86% | +33 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +70 points |
| Q4 2024 | -38% | +82 points |
RIVN's operating margin was −41% last quarter, up 22 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2021.
TM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $85.9B | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $80.4B | +3.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $85.9B | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.6B | +8.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.8B | +3.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $77.5B | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $77.7B | +2.9% |
| Q3 2024 | $71.7B | +0.1% |
TM's revenue has grown year over year for 18 quarters in a row: $85.9B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.9% | -1.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.5% | -4.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8.8% | -1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6.8% | -3.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9.5% | -1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9% | -1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 9.8% | -4.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 10% | -2.5 points |
TM has the edge over RIVN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RIVN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.1B | -$703M |
| Q2 2026 | -$849M | -$451M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -$549M |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.1B | -234% |
| Q3 2025 | -$421M | +$732M |
| Q2 2025 | -$398M | +$639M |
| Q1 2025 | -$526M | +$997M |
| Q4 2024 | $856M | +$2.3B |
RIVN has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$4.2B over the past year, against −$489M the year before.
TM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$4.8B | -221% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.5B | +153% |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.1B | +$320.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.3B | +$610.4M |
| Q2 2025 | $4B | +$4B |
| Q1 2025 | $592.5M | +$592.7M |
| Q4 2024 | -$3.4B | +$1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.9B | -$637.3M |
TM has the edge over RIVN on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
RIVN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +9.1% | +121M shares |
| 1 year | +19% | +226M shares |
| 3 years | +52% | +494M shares |
RIVN has 1.4B diluted shares, up 19% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | $6M |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
TM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -6.1% | -79.5M shares |
| 1 year | -6.1% | -79.4M shares |
| 3 years | -9.7% | -132M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -174M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -202M shares |
TM has the edge over RIVN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $22.9B |
| Q1 2026 | $50,144 |
| Q4 2025 | $50,144 |
| Q3 2025 | $37,608 |
| Q2 2025 | $250.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $835.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $891.9M |
| Q3 2024 | $5.5B |
TM spent $22.9B buying back its own shares over the past year, about three times what it spent the year before.
RIVN Net Leverage
RIVN's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
TM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 4.5x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.1x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 4.7x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q3 2024 | 3.4x | Elevated |
TM's net debt is about 4.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.7 years a year ago.
RIVN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.6 | Neutral |
RIVN's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
TM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 60.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 77.3 | Neutral |
TM's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 77 (neutral).
RIVN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
TM PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | TM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.4x | 18x | 48% below |
| PE % | 35 | 47 | 12 pts below |
TM is trading at 9.4x earnings, a 48% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
RIVN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.3 | 3.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $15.9 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $14.7 | 13% below |
| 200 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
RIVN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 15% below its 200-week average.
TM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $196.3 | 6.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $191.3 | 9.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $201.5 | 4% above |
| 100 week MA | $194.5 | 7.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $187.8 | 12% above |
TM has the edge over RIVN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RIVN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $130.0 | $96.8 | -25% |
| 2022 | $96.8 | $19.1 | -80% |
| 2023 | $19.1 | $23.5 | +23% |
| 2024 | $23.5 | $13.7 | -42% |
| 2025 | $13.7 | $20.9 | +53% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.9 | $12.8 | -39% |
RIVN has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 39% so far in 2026.
TM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $141.3 | $150.5 | +6.5% |
| 2021 | $150.5 | $183.8 | +22% |
| 2022 | $183.8 | $137.1 | -25% |
| 2023 | $137.1 | $183.4 | +34% |
| 2024 | $183.4 | $199.5 | +8.8% |
| 2025 | $199.5 | $216.6 | +8.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $216.6 | $209.7 | -3.2% |
TM has the edge over RIVN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.