RDW
Redwire Corporation
RDW's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
XPO
XPO Logistics, Inc.
XPO has the edge over RDW overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
RDW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
RDW's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
XPO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
XPO's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
RDW PE Valuation
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
XPO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 18x | $76.68 | -59% |
| Forward | 28x | $189 | — |
| Fair | 43x | $182 | -3.7% |
| Current | 45x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 97x | $412 | +119% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
XPO's PE is in its fair range at 45x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 28x next year's earnings.
RDW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect RDW's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
XPO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for XPO, with profitability improving.
RDW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.17 | +$2.01 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.37 | +$1.89 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.59 | -$0.32 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.28 | +$0.07 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.18 | -$1.97 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.26 | -$2.28 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.27 | -$1.55 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.35 | -$1.62 |
RDW is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.17 per share over the past year, against $3.26 at its worst in mid-2025.
XPO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.65 | +57% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.23 | +52% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.38 | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.91 | -10% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.64 | -18% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.78 | -10% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.89 | -4% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.25 | +59% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.23 | +101% |
XPO has the edge over RDW on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RDW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $109M | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $117.1M | +90% |
| Q1 2026 | $97M | +58% |
| Q4 2025 | $108.8M | +56% |
| Q3 2025 | $103.4M | +51% |
| Q2 2025 | $61.8M | -21% |
| Q1 2025 | $61.4M | -30% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6M | +9.6% |
RDW has the edge over XPO on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -24% | +16 points |
| Q2 2026 | -19% | +130 points |
| Q1 2026 | -72% | -49 points |
| Q4 2025 | -75% | -48 points |
| Q3 2025 | -40% | -22 points |
| Q2 2025 | -149% | -140 points |
| Q1 2025 | -23% | -19 points |
| Q4 2024 | -27% | -17 points |
RDW's operating margin was −24% last quarter, up 16 points from the same quarter a year ago.
XPO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.4B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.1B | +7.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2B | +4.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.1B | +2.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.1B | 0% |
| Q1 2025 | $2B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.9B | -0.9% |
XPO's revenue is recovering but still below its 2021 peak: $2.4B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | +4.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.3% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -0.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.8% | -0.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9.5% | 0 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.7% | +0.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.8% | +1.6 points |
XPO has the edge over RDW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RDW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$65.3M | -$38.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$33.5M | +$57.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.4M | +$35.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$26.5M | -659% |
| Q3 2025 | -$26.9M | -$7.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$90.6M | -$80.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$46.9M | -3996% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7M | -65% |
RDW has burned cash in most quarters: −$137M over the past year, against −$160M the year before.
XPO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $284M | +32% |
| Q2 2026 | $181M | +255% |
| Q1 2026 | $72M | +$129M |
| Q4 2025 | $120M | +422% |
| Q3 2025 | $215M | +57% |
| Q2 2025 | $51M | +155% |
| Q1 2025 | -$57M | +$104M |
| Q4 2024 | $23M | +$811M |
XPO has the edge over RDW on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RDW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +13% | +29.6M shares |
| 1 year | +179% | +160M shares |
| 3 years | +289% | +186M shares |
| 5 years | +319% | +190M shares |
RDW has 250M diluted shares, up 179% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
XPO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | -1.7% | -2M shares |
| 3 years | -0.8% | -1M shares |
| 5 years | +1.7% | +2M shares |
| Available history | +11% | +12M shares |
XPO has the edge over RDW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $150M |
| Q2 2026 | $70M |
| Q1 2026 | $30M |
| Q4 2025 | $68M |
| Q3 2025 | $47M |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
XPO spent $318M buying back its own shares over the past year.
RDW Net Leverage
RDW's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
XPO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.7x | Moderate |
XPO's net debt is about 1.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.5 years a year ago.
RDW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.1 | Oversold |
RDW's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
XPO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 34.7 | Neutral |
XPO's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 35 (neutral).
RDW PE vs Industrials Sector
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
XPO PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | XPO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 45x | 24x | 85% above |
| PE % | 52 | 58 | 6 pts below |
XPO is trading at 45x earnings, a 85% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
RDW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.06 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $10.1 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.6 | 24% below |
| 100 week MA | $11.6 | 31% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.07 | 0.5% below |
RDW is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 0.5% below its 200-week average.
XPO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $183.5 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $193.0 | 2.3% below |
| 50 week MA | $189.5 | 0.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $157.3 | 20% above |
| 200 week MA | $122.6 | 54% above |
XPO has the edge over RDW on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RDW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $10.2 | $7.34 | -28% |
| 2022 | $7.34 | $1.92 | -74% |
| 2023 | $1.92 | $2.85 | +48% |
| 2024 | $2.85 | $17.1 | +501% |
| 2025 | $17.1 | $7.15 | -58% |
| 2026 YTD | $7.15 | $8.03 | +12% |
RDW's yearly returns have swung widely, from +501% in 2024 to −74% in 2022. It's up 12% so far in 2026.
XPO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $27.8 | $41.2 | +48% |
| 2021 | $41.2 | $44.8 | +8.6% |
| 2022 | $44.8 | $34.9 | -22% |
| 2023 | $34.9 | $87.6 | +151% |
| 2024 | $87.6 | $132.3 | +51% |
| 2025 | $132.3 | $141.3 | +6.9% |
| 2026 YTD | $141.3 | $188.6 | +33% |
XPO has the edge over RDW on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.