XPO
XPO Logistics, Inc.
XPO's fundamentals are strong: free cash flow more than doubled and earnings per share grew 52%. At 45x earnings, it's trading right at its usual valuation. Analysts expect that strong growth to continue.
XPO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
XPO's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
XPO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 18x | $76.68 | -59% |
| Forward | 28x | $189 | — |
| Fair | 43x | $182 | -3.7% |
| Current | 45x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 97x | $412 | +119% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
XPO's PE is in its fair range at 45x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 28x next year's earnings.
XPO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for XPO, with profitability improving.
XPO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.65 | +57% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.23 | +52% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.38 | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.91 | -10% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.64 | -18% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.78 | -10% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.89 | -4% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.25 | +59% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.23 | +101% |
XPO's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.23 over the past year, against $7.62 in late 2022.
XPO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.4B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.1B | +7.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2B | +4.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.1B | +2.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.1B | 0% |
| Q1 2025 | $2B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.9B | -0.9% |
XPO's revenue is recovering but still below its 2021 peak: $2.4B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | +4.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.3% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.1% | -0.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.8% | -0.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9.5% | 0 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.7% | +0.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.8% | +1.6 points |
XPO's operating margin was 12% last quarter, up 4.4 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
XPO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $284M | +32% |
| Q2 2026 | $181M | +255% |
| Q1 2026 | $72M | +$129M |
| Q4 2025 | $120M | +422% |
| Q3 2025 | $215M | +57% |
| Q2 2025 | $51M | +155% |
| Q1 2025 | -$57M | +$104M |
| Q4 2024 | $23M | +$811M |
XPO generated $657M in free cash flow over the past year, up 183% from the year before.
XPO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | -1.7% | -2M shares |
| 3 years | -0.8% | -1M shares |
| 5 years | +1.7% | +2M shares |
| Available history | +11% | +12M shares |
XPO has 118M diluted shares, down 1.7% from a year ago, with $318M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $150M |
| Q2 2026 | $70M |
| Q1 2026 | $30M |
| Q4 2025 | $68M |
| Q3 2025 | $47M |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
XPO spent $318M buying back its own shares over the past year.
XPO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.7x | Moderate |
XPO's net debt is about 1.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.5 years a year ago.
XPO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 34.7 | Neutral |
XPO's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 35 (neutral).
XPO PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | XPO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 45x | 24x | 86% above |
| PE % | 52 | 58 | 6 pts below |
XPO is trading at 45x earnings, a 86% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
XPO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $183.5 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $193.0 | 2.3% below |
| 50 week MA | $189.5 | 0.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $157.3 | 20% above |
| 200 week MA | $122.6 | 54% above |
XPO's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 54% above its 200-week average.
XPO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $27.8 | $41.2 | +48% |
| 2021 | $41.2 | $44.8 | +8.6% |
| 2022 | $44.8 | $34.9 | -22% |
| 2023 | $34.9 | $87.6 | +151% |
| 2024 | $87.6 | $132.3 | +51% |
| 2025 | $132.3 | $141.3 | +6.9% |
| 2026 YTD | $141.3 | $188.6 | +33% |
XPO has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 33% so far in 2026.