RDW
Redwire Corporation
RDW has a slight edge over VATE overall, supported by lower modeled downside.
VATE
INNOVATE Corp.
VATE offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
RDW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
RDW's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
VATE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
VATE's revenue and cash flow are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
RDW PE Valuation
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
VATE PE Valuation
VATE has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RDW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect RDW's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
VATE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect VATE's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
RDW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.17 | +$2.01 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.37 | +$1.89 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.59 | -$0.32 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.28 | +$0.07 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.18 | -$1.97 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.26 | -$2.28 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.27 | -$1.55 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.35 | -$1.62 |
RDW is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.17 per share over the past year, against $3.26 at its worst in mid-2025.
VATE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.05 | +$6.00 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.86 | +$4.66 |
| Q1 2026 | -$4.24 | -$0.39 |
| Q4 2025 | -$4.84 | -$0.68 |
| Q3 2025 | -$6.05 | -$2.37 |
| Q2 2025 | -$6.52 | -$3.12 |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.85 | +$1.85 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.16 | +$0.64 |
VATE has the edge over RDW on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
RDW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $109M | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $117.1M | +90% |
| Q1 2026 | $97M | +58% |
| Q4 2025 | $108.8M | +56% |
| Q3 2025 | $103.4M | +51% |
| Q2 2025 | $61.8M | -21% |
| Q1 2025 | $61.4M | -30% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6M | +9.6% |
RDW's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $109M last quarter, up 5.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -24% | +16 points |
| Q2 2026 | -19% | +130 points |
| Q1 2026 | -72% | -49 points |
| Q4 2025 | -75% | -48 points |
| Q3 2025 | -40% | -22 points |
| Q2 2025 | -149% | -140 points |
| Q1 2025 | -23% | -19 points |
| Q4 2024 | -27% | -17 points |
RDW's operating margin was −24% last quarter, up 16 points from the same quarter a year ago.
VATE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $495.5M | +43% |
| Q2 2026 | $421.6M | +74% |
| Q1 2026 | $364.8M | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $382.7M | +62% |
| Q3 2025 | $347.1M | +43% |
| Q2 2025 | $242M | -23% |
| Q1 2025 | $274.2M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $236.6M | -34% |
VATE's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $496M last quarter, up 43% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6% | +4.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 8.2% | +6.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 2.7% | +1.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3.7% | +2.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.8% | -0.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2% | -7.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 1.2% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 1.1% | -2.8 points |
VATE has the edge over RDW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RDW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$65.3M | -$38.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$33.5M | +$57.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.4M | +$35.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$26.5M | -659% |
| Q3 2025 | -$26.9M | -$7.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$90.6M | -$80.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$46.9M | -3996% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7M | -65% |
RDW has burned cash in most quarters: −$137M over the past year, against −$160M the year before.
VATE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $34.8M | +83% |
| Q2 2026 | -$24.7M | -155% |
| Q1 2026 | $45.3M | +$64.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $101.1M | +196% |
| Q3 2025 | $19M | +$50.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $44.8M | +143% |
| Q1 2025 | -$18.8M | +$12.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $34.2M | -40% |
VATE has the edge over RDW on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RDW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +13% | +29.6M shares |
| 1 year | +179% | +160M shares |
| 3 years | +289% | +186M shares |
| 5 years | +319% | +190M shares |
RDW has 250M diluted shares, up 179% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
VATE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.9% | -264K shares |
| 1 year | +3.3% | +440K shares |
| 3 years | +75% | +5.9M shares |
| 5 years | +78% | +6M shares |
| Available history | +206% | +9.2M shares |
VATE has the edge over RDW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
RDW Net Leverage
RDW's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
VATE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.3x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 6.0x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 9.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 10.4x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 15.2x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 14.6x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 9.6x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 9.4x | High |
VATE's net debt is about 5.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 15 years a year ago.
RDW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.1 | Oversold |
RDW's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
VATE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 37.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 2.3 | Oversold |
VATE's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 2 (oversold).
RDW PE vs Industrials Sector
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
VATE PE vs Industrials Sector
VATE has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RDW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.06 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $10.1 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.6 | 24% below |
| 100 week MA | $11.6 | 31% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.07 | 0.5% below |
RDW is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 0.5% below its 200-week average.
VATE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $6.21 | 22% below |
| 20 week MA | $7.91 | 39% below |
| 50 week MA | $8.41 | 42% below |
| 100 week MA | $7.38 | 34% below |
| 200 week MA | $10.2 | 52% below |
VATE is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 52% below its 200-week average.
RDW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $10.2 | $7.34 | -28% |
| 2022 | $7.34 | $1.92 | -74% |
| 2023 | $1.92 | $2.85 | +48% |
| 2024 | $2.85 | $17.1 | +501% |
| 2025 | $17.1 | $7.15 | -58% |
| 2026 YTD | $7.15 | $8.03 | +12% |
RDW has the edge over VATE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
VATE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $21.1 | $36.8 | +74% |
| 2021 | $36.8 | $37.3 | +1.4% |
| 2022 | $37.3 | $14.2 | -62% |
| 2023 | $14.2 | $12.3 | -13% |
| 2024 | $12.3 | $5.33 | -57% |
| 2025 | $5.33 | $4.92 | -7.7% |
| 2026 YTD | $4.92 | $4.86 | -1.2% |
VATE has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 1.2% so far in 2026.