RDW
Redwire Corporation
RDW has the edge over UPS overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc.
UPS has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
RDW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
RDW's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
UPS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
UPS's cash flow is currently healthy, and its revenue, profitability and balance sheet are stable.
RDW PE Valuation
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
UPS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 14x | $73.78 | -33% |
| Forward | 14x | $110 | — |
| Fair | 18x | $92.54 | -16% |
| Current | 21x | $110 | — |
| Expensive | 29x | $148 | +34% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UPS's PE is in its expensive range at 21x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
RDW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect RDW's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
UPS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for UPS, with profitability improving.
RDW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.17 | +$2.01 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.37 | +$1.89 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.59 | -$0.32 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.28 | +$0.07 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.18 | -$1.97 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.26 | -$2.28 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.27 | -$1.55 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.35 | -$1.62 |
RDW is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.17 per share over the past year, against $3.26 at its worst in mid-2025.
UPS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.96 | +53% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.20 | -20% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.38 | -20% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.18 | -9.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.56 | -2.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.46 | -2.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.71 | +9.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.85 | -0.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.75 | -13% |
UPS has the edge over RDW on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RDW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $109M | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $117.1M | +90% |
| Q1 2026 | $97M | +58% |
| Q4 2025 | $108.8M | +56% |
| Q3 2025 | $103.4M | +51% |
| Q2 2025 | $61.8M | -21% |
| Q1 2025 | $61.4M | -30% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6M | +9.6% |
RDW has the edge over UPS on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -24% | +16 points |
| Q2 2026 | -19% | +130 points |
| Q1 2026 | -72% | -49 points |
| Q4 2025 | -75% | -48 points |
| Q3 2025 | -40% | -22 points |
| Q2 2025 | -149% | -140 points |
| Q1 2025 | -23% | -19 points |
| Q4 2024 | -27% | -17 points |
RDW's operating margin was −24% last quarter, up 16 points from the same quarter a year ago.
UPS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $22.9B | +6.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $22.8B | +7.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $21.2B | -1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $24.5B | -3.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $21.4B | -3.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $21.2B | -2.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $21.5B | -0.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $25.3B | +1.5% |
UPS's revenue is recovering but still below its 2021 peak: $22.9B last quarter, up 6.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.6% | -0.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4.1% | -4.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 6% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | -1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4% | -0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.6% | -0.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.7% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 12% | +1.6 points |
UPS has the edge over RDW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RDW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$65.3M | -$38.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$33.5M | +$57.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.4M | +$35.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$26.5M | -659% |
| Q3 2025 | -$26.9M | -$7.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$90.6M | -$80.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$46.9M | -3996% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7M | -65% |
RDW has burned cash in most quarters: −$137M over the past year, against −$160M the year before.
UPS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.4B | +59% |
| Q2 2026 | $166M | +$941M |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | -17% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.6B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.5B | +131% |
| Q2 2025 | -$775M | -173% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.4B | -37% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.2B | +512% |
UPS has the edge over RDW on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RDW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +13% | +29.6M shares |
| 1 year | +179% | +160M shares |
| 3 years | +289% | +186M shares |
| 5 years | +319% | +190M shares |
RDW has 250M diluted shares, up 179% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
UPS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +1M shares |
| 1 year | +0.5% | +4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6M shares |
| 5 years | -3.1% | -27M shares |
| Available history | -2% | -17M shares |
UPS has the edge over RDW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $1B |
| Q4 2024 | — |
UPS hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
RDW Net Leverage
RDW's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
UPS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.3x | Healthy |
UPS's net debt is about 1.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.5 years a year ago.
RDW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.1 | Oversold |
RDW's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
UPS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 74.5 | Neutral |
UPS's weekly RSI is 59 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 75 (neutral).
RDW PE vs Industrials Sector
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
UPS PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | UPS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 24x | 12% below |
| PE % | 73 | 58 | 15 pts above |
UPS is trading at 21x earnings, a 12% discount to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
RDW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.06 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $10.1 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.6 | 24% below |
| 100 week MA | $11.6 | 31% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.07 | 0.5% below |
RDW is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 0.5% below its 200-week average.
UPS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $100.9 | 9.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $104.2 | 5.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $104.6 | 5.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $103.1 | 7% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.4 | 15% below |
UPS has the edge over RDW on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RDW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $10.2 | $7.34 | -28% |
| 2022 | $7.34 | $1.92 | -74% |
| 2023 | $1.92 | $2.85 | +48% |
| 2024 | $2.85 | $17.1 | +501% |
| 2025 | $17.1 | $7.15 | -58% |
| 2026 YTD | $7.15 | $8.03 | +12% |
RDW has the edge over UPS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
UPS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $118.9 | $172.2 | +45% |
| 2021 | $172.2 | $212.2 | +23% |
| 2022 | $212.2 | $177.0 | -17% |
| 2023 | $177.0 | $157.2 | -11% |
| 2024 | $157.2 | $126.1 | -20% |
| 2025 | $126.1 | $100.5 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $100.5 | $110.4 | +9.8% |
UPS has finished four years in a row lower, and it's up 9.8% so far in 2026.