RDW
Redwire Corporation
RDW has the edge over ULCC overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.
ULCC has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
RDW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
RDW's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
ULCC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Weak | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
ULCC's revenue and balance sheet are currently strong, and its cash flow is stable, but its profitability is weak.
RDW PE Valuation
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ULCC PE Valuation
ULCC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RDW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect RDW's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
ULCC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect ULCC's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RDW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.17 | +$2.01 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.37 | +$1.89 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.59 | -$0.32 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.28 | +$0.07 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.18 | -$1.97 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.26 | -$2.28 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.27 | -$1.55 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.35 | -$1.62 |
RDW is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.17 per share over the past year, against $3.26 at its worst in mid-2025.
ULCC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.78 | -$1.18 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.67 | -$1.52 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.59 | -630% |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.60 | -262% |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.60 | -$0.57 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.15 | +$0.13 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.30 | +$0.41 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.37 | +$0.42 |
ULCC lost $1.78 per share over the past year, and its loss has widened in each of the last three quarters.
RDW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $109M | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $117.1M | +90% |
| Q1 2026 | $97M | +58% |
| Q4 2025 | $108.8M | +56% |
| Q3 2025 | $103.4M | +51% |
| Q2 2025 | $61.8M | -21% |
| Q1 2025 | $61.4M | -30% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6M | +9.6% |
RDW has the edge over ULCC on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -24% | +16 points |
| Q2 2026 | -19% | +130 points |
| Q1 2026 | -72% | -49 points |
| Q4 2025 | -75% | -48 points |
| Q3 2025 | -40% | -22 points |
| Q2 2025 | -149% | -140 points |
| Q1 2025 | -23% | -19 points |
| Q4 2024 | -27% | -17 points |
RDW's operating margin was −24% last quarter, up 16 points from the same quarter a year ago.
ULCC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +53% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +38% |
| Q1 2026 | $992M | +8.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $997M | -0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $886M | -5.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $929M | -4.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $912M | +5.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $1B | +12% |
ULCC's revenue has picked up after two years of holding roughly level: $1.4B last quarter, up 53% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -8% | +0.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | -7.6% | +0.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | -29% | -24 points |
| Q4 2025 | 4.9% | +0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | -8.7% | -11 points |
| Q2 2025 | -8.1% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | -5% | -1.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 4.5% | +4.8 points |
ULCC has the edge over RDW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RDW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$65.3M | -$38.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$33.5M | +$57.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.4M | +$35.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$26.5M | -659% |
| Q3 2025 | -$26.9M | -$7.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$90.6M | -$80.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$46.9M | -3996% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7M | -65% |
RDW has burned cash in most quarters: −$137M over the past year, against −$160M the year before.
ULCC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$51M | +$166M |
| Q2 2026 | $138M | +$304M |
| Q1 2026 | $28M | +$132M |
| Q4 2025 | -$113M | -255% |
| Q3 2025 | -$217M | -$47M |
| Q2 2025 | -$166M | -$144M |
| Q1 2025 | -$104M | -$65M |
| Q4 2024 | $73M | +$141M |
ULCC has the edge over RDW on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RDW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +13% | +29.6M shares |
| 1 year | +179% | +160M shares |
| 3 years | +289% | +186M shares |
| 5 years | +319% | +190M shares |
RDW has 250M diluted shares, up 179% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
ULCC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +264K shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +2.1M shares |
| 3 years | +4.3% | +9.4M shares |
| 5 years | +5.5% | +12M shares |
| Available history | +15% | +30.6M shares |
ULCC has the edge over RDW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
| Q4 2019 | — |
RDW Net Leverage
RDW's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
ULCC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2023 | -3.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2023 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2023 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
ULCC has more cash than debt.
RDW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.1 | Oversold |
RDW's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
ULCC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 61.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 69.0 | Neutral |
ULCC's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 69 (neutral).
RDW PE vs Industrials Sector
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ULCC PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | ULCC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 24x | — |
ULCC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RDW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.06 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $10.1 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.6 | 24% below |
| 100 week MA | $11.6 | 31% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.07 | 0.5% below |
RDW is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 0.5% below its 200-week average.
ULCC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $6.19 | 24% above |
| 20 week MA | $6.30 | 22% above |
| 50 week MA | $5.50 | 40% above |
| 100 week MA | $5.28 | 46% above |
| 200 week MA | $6.00 | 28% above |
ULCC has the edge over RDW on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RDW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $10.2 | $7.34 | -28% |
| 2022 | $7.34 | $1.92 | -74% |
| 2023 | $1.92 | $2.85 | +48% |
| 2024 | $2.85 | $17.1 | +501% |
| 2025 | $17.1 | $7.15 | -58% |
| 2026 YTD | $7.15 | $8.03 | +12% |
RDW's yearly returns have swung widely, from +501% in 2024 to −74% in 2022. It's up 12% so far in 2026.
ULCC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $18.9 | $14.3 | -24% |
| 2022 | $14.3 | $10.5 | -27% |
| 2023 | $10.5 | $5.46 | -48% |
| 2024 | $5.46 | $7.17 | +31% |
| 2025 | $7.17 | $4.71 | -34% |
| 2026 YTD | $4.71 | $7.70 | +63% |
ULCC has the edge over RDW on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.