RDW
Redwire Corporation
RDW has the edge over TKR overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
TKR
The Timken Company
TKR has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
RDW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
RDW's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
TKR Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
TKR's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
RDW PE Valuation
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
TKR PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 13x | $50.52 | -54% |
| Fair | 15x | $62.02 | -44% |
| Forward | 16x | $110 | — |
| Expensive | 20x | $82.47 | -25% |
| Current | 27x | $110 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TKR's PE is in its expensive range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 16x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
RDW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect RDW's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
TKR Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for TKR, with profitability improving.
RDW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.17 | +$2.01 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.37 | +$1.89 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.59 | -$0.32 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.28 | +$0.07 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.18 | -$1.97 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.26 | -$2.28 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.27 | -$1.55 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.35 | -$1.62 |
RDW is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.17 per share over the past year, against $3.26 at its worst in mid-2025.
TKR Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.09 | +75% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.04 | -4.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.69 | -16% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.40 | -5.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.11 | -18% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.23 | -12% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.40 | -9.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.64 | -12% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.99 | -8.6% |
TKR has the edge over RDW on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RDW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $109M | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $117.1M | +90% |
| Q1 2026 | $97M | +58% |
| Q4 2025 | $108.8M | +56% |
| Q3 2025 | $103.4M | +51% |
| Q2 2025 | $61.8M | -21% |
| Q1 2025 | $61.4M | -30% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6M | +9.6% |
RDW has the edge over TKR on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -24% | +16 points |
| Q2 2026 | -19% | +130 points |
| Q1 2026 | -72% | -49 points |
| Q4 2025 | -75% | -48 points |
| Q3 2025 | -40% | -22 points |
| Q2 2025 | -149% | -140 points |
| Q1 2025 | -23% | -19 points |
| Q4 2024 | -27% | -17 points |
RDW's operating margin was −24% last quarter, up 16 points from the same quarter a year ago.
TKR Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.2B | +4.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +7.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | +8% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | +3.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2B | +2.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2B | -0.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1B | -4.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B | -1.6% |
TKR's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $1.2B last quarter, up 4.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | +1.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.7% | -5.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 14% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 9.8% | -0.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 12% | -0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | -1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 13% | -2.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -0.4 points |
TKR has the edge over RDW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RDW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$65.3M | -$38.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$33.5M | +$57.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.4M | +$35.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$26.5M | -659% |
| Q3 2025 | -$26.9M | -$7.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$90.6M | -$80.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$46.9M | -3996% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7M | -65% |
RDW has burned cash in most quarters: −$137M over the past year, against −$160M the year before.
TKR Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $221.4M | +35% |
| Q2 2026 | $80.5M | +2.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $500K | -98% |
| Q4 2025 | $140.7M | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $163.8M | +86% |
| Q2 2025 | $78.2M | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | $23.4M | +350% |
| Q4 2024 | $125M | +66% |
TKR has the edge over RDW on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RDW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +13% | +29.6M shares |
| 1 year | +179% | +160M shares |
| 3 years | +289% | +186M shares |
| 5 years | +319% | +190M shares |
RDW has 250M diluted shares, up 179% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
TKR Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -261K shares |
| 1 year | -0.4% | -277K shares |
| 3 years | -2.4% | -1.7M shares |
| 5 years | -9.3% | -7.2M shares |
| Available history | -9.2% | -7.1M shares |
TKR has the edge over RDW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $63.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $20M |
| Q1 2026 | $28M |
| Q4 2025 | $11.7M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $22.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $23.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $9.1M |
TKR spent $124M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 125% from the year before.
RDW Net Leverage
RDW's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
TKR Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.0x | Moderate |
TKR's net debt is about 2.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.2 years a year ago.
RDW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.1 | Oversold |
RDW's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
TKR Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 17.4 | Oversold |
TKR's weekly RSI is 44 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 17 (oversold).
RDW PE vs Industrials Sector
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
TKR PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | TKR | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 24x | 14% above |
| PE % | 94 | 58 | 36 pts above |
TKR is trading at 27x earnings, a 14% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
RDW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.06 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $10.1 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.6 | 24% below |
| 100 week MA | $11.6 | 31% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.07 | 0.5% below |
RDW is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 0.5% below its 200-week average.
TKR Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $112.6 | 2% below |
| 20 week MA | $123.2 | 10% below |
| 50 week MA | $112.9 | 2.2% below |
| 100 week MA | $93.7 | 18% above |
| 200 week MA | $87.3 | 27% above |
TKR has the edge over RDW on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RDW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $10.2 | $7.34 | -28% |
| 2022 | $7.34 | $1.92 | -74% |
| 2023 | $1.92 | $2.85 | +48% |
| 2024 | $2.85 | $17.1 | +501% |
| 2025 | $17.1 | $7.15 | -58% |
| 2026 YTD | $7.15 | $8.03 | +12% |
RDW's yearly returns have swung widely, from +501% in 2024 to −74% in 2022. It's up 12% so far in 2026.
TKR Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $56.6 | $77.4 | +37% |
| 2021 | $77.4 | $67.4 | -13% |
| 2022 | $67.4 | $70.7 | +4.9% |
| 2023 | $70.7 | $80.2 | +13% |
| 2024 | $80.2 | $71.5 | -11% |
| 2025 | $71.5 | $86.5 | +21% |
| 2026 YTD | $86.5 | $110.4 | +28% |
TKR has the edge over RDW on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.