RDW
Redwire Corporation
RDW offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
SSD
Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.
SSD has a slight edge over RDW overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
RDW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
RDW's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
SSD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
SSD's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
RDW PE Valuation
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
SSD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 17x | $155 | -22% |
| Forward | 21x | $199 | — |
| Fair | 22x | $202 | +1.4% |
| Current | 22x | $199 | — |
| Expensive | 24x | $226 | +14% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SSD's PE is in its fair range at 22x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 21x.
RDW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
RDW has the edge over SSD on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
SSD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect SSD's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
RDW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.17 | +$2.01 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.37 | +$1.89 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.59 | -$0.32 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.28 | +$0.07 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.18 | -$1.97 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.26 | -$2.28 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.27 | -$1.55 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.35 | -$1.62 |
RDW is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.17 per share over the past year, against $3.26 at its worst in mid-2025.
SSD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.44 | +2.2% |
| Q3 2026 | $9.24 | +13% |
| Q2 2026 | $9.14 | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.52 | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.24 | +8.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.21 | +8.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.84 | +0.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.68 | -3.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.60 | -8% |
SSD has the edge over RDW on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RDW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $109M | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $117.1M | +90% |
| Q1 2026 | $97M | +58% |
| Q4 2025 | $108.8M | +56% |
| Q3 2025 | $103.4M | +51% |
| Q2 2025 | $61.8M | -21% |
| Q1 2025 | $61.4M | -30% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6M | +9.6% |
RDW's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $109M last quarter, up 5.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -24% | +16 points |
| Q2 2026 | -19% | +130 points |
| Q1 2026 | -72% | -49 points |
| Q4 2025 | -75% | -48 points |
| Q3 2025 | -40% | -22 points |
| Q2 2025 | -149% | -140 points |
| Q1 2025 | -23% | -19 points |
| Q4 2024 | -27% | -17 points |
RDW's operating margin was −24% last quarter, up 16 points from the same quarter a year ago.
SSD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $638.1M | +2.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $671.1M | +6.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $588M | +9.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $539.3M | +4.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $623.5M | +6.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $631.1M | +5.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $538.9M | +1.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $517.4M | +3.1% |
SSD's revenue has grown year over year for nine quarters in a row: $638M last quarter, up 2.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 22% | -0.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 25% | +3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 19% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 23% | +1.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 22% | +0.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 19% | +0.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +0.6 points |
SSD has the edge over RDW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RDW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$65.3M | -$38.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$33.5M | +$57.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.4M | +$35.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$26.5M | -659% |
| Q3 2025 | -$26.9M | -$7.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$90.6M | -$80.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$46.9M | -3996% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7M | -65% |
RDW has burned cash in most quarters: −$137M over the past year, against −$160M the year before.
SSD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $161.4M | +21% |
| Q2 2026 | $197.5M | +135% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.9M | +$60.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $119M | +97% |
| Q3 2025 | $133.8M | +130% |
| Q2 2025 | $84.2M | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | -$42.6M | -$11.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $60.3M | +$62.8M |
SSD has the edge over RDW on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RDW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +13% | +29.6M shares |
| 1 year | +179% | +160M shares |
| 3 years | +289% | +186M shares |
| 5 years | +319% | +190M shares |
RDW has 250M diluted shares, up 179% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
SSD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.8% | -333K shares |
| 1 year | -2.3% | -966K shares |
| 3 years | -5% | -2.1M shares |
| 5 years | -6.3% | -2.7M shares |
| Available history | -9.3% | -4.2M shares |
SSD has the edge over RDW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $66.3M |
| Q2 2026 | $48.7M |
| Q1 2026 | $50M |
| Q4 2025 | $30M |
| Q3 2025 | $30M |
| Q2 2025 | $35M |
| Q1 2025 | $25M |
| Q4 2024 | $50M |
SSD spent $195M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 39% from the year before.
RDW Net Leverage
RDW's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
SSD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.3x | Very low |
SSD has more cash than debt.
RDW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.1 | Oversold |
RDW's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
SSD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 69.0 | Neutral |
SSD's weekly RSI is 59 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 69 (neutral).
RDW PE vs Industrials Sector
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
SSD PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | SSD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22x | 24x | 11% below |
| PE % | 45 | 58 | 13 pts below |
SSD is trading at 22x earnings, a 11% discount to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
RDW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.06 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $10.1 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.6 | 24% below |
| 100 week MA | $11.6 | 31% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.07 | 0.5% below |
RDW is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 0.5% below its 200-week average.
SSD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $183.9 | 8.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $186.0 | 6.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $184.1 | 8% above |
| 100 week MA | $175.4 | 13% above |
| 200 week MA | $167.9 | 18% above |
SSD has the edge over RDW on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RDW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $10.2 | $7.34 | -28% |
| 2022 | $7.34 | $1.92 | -74% |
| 2023 | $1.92 | $2.85 | +48% |
| 2024 | $2.85 | $17.1 | +501% |
| 2025 | $17.1 | $7.15 | -58% |
| 2026 YTD | $7.15 | $8.03 | +12% |
RDW's yearly returns have swung widely, from +501% in 2024 to −74% in 2022. It's up 12% so far in 2026.
SSD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $80.5 | $92.9 | +15% |
| 2021 | $92.9 | $134.0 | +44% |
| 2022 | $134.0 | $89.2 | -33% |
| 2023 | $89.2 | $198.0 | +122% |
| 2024 | $198.0 | $166.8 | -16% |
| 2025 | $166.8 | $167.2 | +0.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $167.2 | $198.8 | +19% |
SSD has the edge over RDW on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.