RDW
Redwire Corporation
RDW has the edge over RSG overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
RSG has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
RDW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
RDW's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
RSG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
RSG's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
RDW PE Valuation
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RSG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 28x | $206 | -19% |
| Fair | 32x | $230 | -9.3% |
| Forward | 33x | $253 | — |
| Expensive | 35x | $252 | -0.6% |
| Current | 35x | $253 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
RSG's PE is in its expensive range at 35x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 33x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
RDW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect RDW's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
RSG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for RSG, with profitability improving.
RDW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.17 | +$2.01 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.37 | +$1.89 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.59 | -$0.32 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.28 | +$0.07 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.18 | -$1.97 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.26 | -$2.28 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.27 | -$1.55 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.35 | -$1.62 |
RDW is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.17 per share over the past year, against $3.26 at its worst in mid-2025.
RSG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.75 | +7.2% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.23 | +7.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.06 | +4.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.97 | +5.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.85 | +5.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.72 | +7.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.76 | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.63 | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.49 | +19% |
RSG has the edge over RDW on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RDW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $109M | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $117.1M | +90% |
| Q1 2026 | $97M | +58% |
| Q4 2025 | $108.8M | +56% |
| Q3 2025 | $103.4M | +51% |
| Q2 2025 | $61.8M | -21% |
| Q1 2025 | $61.4M | -30% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6M | +9.6% |
RDW's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $109M last quarter, up 5.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -24% | +16 points |
| Q2 2026 | -19% | +130 points |
| Q1 2026 | -72% | -49 points |
| Q4 2025 | -75% | -48 points |
| Q3 2025 | -40% | -22 points |
| Q2 2025 | -149% | -140 points |
| Q1 2025 | -23% | -19 points |
| Q4 2024 | -27% | -17 points |
RDW's operating margin was −24% last quarter, up 16 points from the same quarter a year ago.
RSG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.2B | +7.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.1B | +4% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.7B | +2.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.7B | +2% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.8B | +3.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.9B | +4.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.6B | +3.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.6B | +5.4% |
RSG's revenue has grown year over year for 23 quarters in a row: $5.2B last quarter, up 7.8% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 18% | +0.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 18% | +0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 17% | -0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -0.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 17% | +1.4 points |
RSG has the edge over RDW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RDW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$65.3M | -$38.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$33.5M | +$57.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.4M | +$35.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$26.5M | -659% |
| Q3 2025 | -$26.9M | -$7.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$90.6M | -$80.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$46.9M | -3996% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7M | -65% |
RDW has burned cash in most quarters: −$137M over the past year, against −$160M the year before.
RSG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $644M | -13% |
| Q2 2026 | $761M | +8.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $751M | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $404M | -23% |
| Q3 2025 | $737M | +34% |
| Q2 2025 | $702M | +0.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $566M | +91% |
| Q4 2024 | $524.4M | +50% |
RSG has the edge over RDW on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RDW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +13% | +29.6M shares |
| 1 year | +179% | +160M shares |
| 3 years | +289% | +186M shares |
| 5 years | +319% | +190M shares |
RDW has 250M diluted shares, up 179% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
RSG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -1.1M shares |
| 1 year | -1.8% | -5.5M shares |
| 3 years | -3.2% | -10.1M shares |
| 5 years | -4% | -12.9M shares |
| Available history | -4.8% | -15.5M shares |
RSG has the edge over RDW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $197M |
| Q2 2026 | $367M |
| Q1 2026 | $292M |
| Q4 2025 | $271M |
| Q3 2025 | $540M |
| Q2 2025 | $4M |
| Q1 2025 | $55M |
| Q4 2024 | $161.3M |
RSG spent $1.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 48% from the year before.
RDW Net Leverage
RDW's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
RSG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.6x | Moderate |
RSG's net debt is about 2.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
RDW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.1 | Oversold |
RDW's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
RSG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 71.9 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 90.0 | Overbought |
RSG's weekly RSI is 72 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 90 (overbought).
RDW PE vs Industrials Sector
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RSG PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | RSG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 35x | 24x | 45% above |
| PE % | 85 | 58 | 27 pts above |
RSG is trading at 35x earnings, a 45% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
RDW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.06 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $10.1 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.6 | 24% below |
| 100 week MA | $11.6 | 31% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.07 | 0.5% below |
RDW is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 0.5% below its 200-week average.
RSG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $231.8 | 9.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $223.8 | 13% above |
| 50 week MA | $218.0 | 16% above |
| 100 week MA | $224.4 | 13% above |
| 200 week MA | $196.8 | 29% above |
RSG has the edge over RDW on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RDW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $10.2 | $7.34 | -28% |
| 2022 | $7.34 | $1.92 | -74% |
| 2023 | $1.92 | $2.85 | +48% |
| 2024 | $2.85 | $17.1 | +501% |
| 2025 | $17.1 | $7.15 | -58% |
| 2026 YTD | $7.15 | $8.03 | +12% |
RDW's yearly returns have swung widely, from +501% in 2024 to −74% in 2022. It's up 12% so far in 2026.
RSG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $90.2 | $95.6 | +6% |
| 2021 | $95.6 | $135.4 | +42% |
| 2022 | $135.4 | $130.8 | -3.4% |
| 2023 | $130.8 | $164.9 | +26% |
| 2024 | $164.9 | $202.9 | +23% |
| 2025 | $202.9 | $213.4 | +5.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $213.4 | $253.0 | +19% |
RSG has the edge over RDW on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.