PEN
Penumbra, Inc.
PEN has the edge over UNH overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
UNH offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
PEN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
PEN's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
UNH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
UNH's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
PEN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 55x | $321 | — |
| Cheap | 76x | $300 | -6.4% |
| Current | 81x | $321 | — |
| Fair | 222x | $883 | +175% |
| Expensive | 648x | $2,574 | +702% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PEN has the edge over UNH in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
UNH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 18x | $405 | — |
| Cheap | 19x | $325 | -20% |
| Fair | 23x | $410 | +1.2% |
| Current | 23x | $405 | — |
| Expensive | 30x | $526 | +30% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UNH's PE is in its fair range at 23x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
PEN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
PEN has the edge over UNH on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
UNH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect UNH's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
PEN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.82 | +47% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.97 | -5.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.07 | +7.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.34 | +302% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.52 | +1156% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.20 | +388% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.78 | +1012% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.08 | -54% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.36 | -84% |
PEN has the edge over UNH on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
UNH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $22.65 | +29% |
| Q3 2026 | $17.55 | -8.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $15.58 | -33% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.28 | -44% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.23 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.17 | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $23.09 | +53% |
| Q1 2025 | $23.89 | +46% |
| Q4 2024 | $15.51 | -35% |
UNH's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $17.55 over the past year, against $23.89 in early 2025.
PEN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $410.1M | +16% |
| Q2 2026 | $390M | +15% |
| Q1 2026 | $374.8M | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $385.4M | +22% |
| Q3 2025 | $354.7M | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $339.5M | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $324.1M | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $315.5M | +11% |
PEN has the edge over UNH on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | -1.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 11% | -1.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 10% | -2.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 15% | +1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | +2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 12% | +39 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +8.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 14% | +1.3 points |
PEN has the edge over UNH on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
UNH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $112.7B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $112B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $111.7B | +2% |
| Q4 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $111.6B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $109.6B | +9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.8B | +6.8% |
UNH's revenue has held roughly level: $113B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.8% | +2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.1% | +2.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.1% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3% | -7.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8% | -4.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.6% | -3.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.3% | +0.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.7% | -0.4 points |
UNH's operating margin was 5.8% last quarter, up 2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
PEN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $26.4M | -37% |
| Q2 2026 | $32.5M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $73.3M | +106% |
| Q4 2025 | $68.1M | +49% |
| Q3 2025 | $42M | -18% |
| Q2 2025 | $29.4M | +62% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.5M | +9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $45.7M | +40% |
PEN has the edge over UNH on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
UNH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.3B | -16% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.3B | +63% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.1B | +79% |
| Q4 2025 | $160M | -89% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.1B | -61% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.3B | +6.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.6B | +1037% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.5B | +$7.6B |
UNH still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2022 peak: $22.8B over the past year.
PEN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +48.2K shares |
| 1 year | +0.8% | +318K shares |
| 3 years | +1% | +400K shares |
| 5 years | +5.3% | +2M shares |
| Available history | +9.1% | +3.3M shares |
PEN has 40M diluted shares, up 0.8% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $1,000 |
UNH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -4M shares |
| 1 year | -0.7% | -6M shares |
| 3 years | -3.6% | -34M shares |
| 5 years | -5.5% | -53M shares |
| Available history | -6.6% | -64M shares |
UNH has the edge over PEN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $3B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
UNH spent $5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 52% from the year before.
PEN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -6.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -9.8x | Net Cash |
PEN has the edge over UNH on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
UNH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.4x | Healthy |
UNH's net debt is about 1.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
PEN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.1 | Neutral |
PEN's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
UNH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.0 | Neutral |
UNH's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
PEN PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | PEN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 81x | 26x | 213% above |
| PE % | 26 | 29 | 3 pts below |
PEN is trading at 81x earnings, a 213% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
UNH PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | UNH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 26x | 11% below |
| PE % | 47 | 29 | 18 pts above |
UNH has the edge over PEN on valuation relative to its sector.
PEN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $320.0 | 0.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $320.6 | 0.1% above |
| 50 week MA | $325.6 | 1.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $294.7 | 8.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $267.7 | 20% above |
PEN's trend is mixed: it's above four of its five weekly moving averages, and 20% above its 200-week average.
UNH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $394.2 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $400.5 | 1.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $361.2 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $376.0 | 7.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $446.6 | 9.3% below |
UNH has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20-, 50- and 100-week averages, but 9.3% below its 200-week average.
PEN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $164.1 | $187.4 | +14% |
| 2021 | $187.4 | $275.6 | +47% |
| 2022 | $275.6 | $219.6 | -20% |
| 2023 | $219.6 | $251.5 | +15% |
| 2024 | $251.5 | $239.9 | -4.6% |
| 2025 | $239.9 | $317.0 | +32% |
| 2026 YTD | $317.0 | $320.8 | +1.2% |
PEN has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 1.2% so far in 2026.
UNH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $296.0 | $340.8 | +15% |
| 2021 | $340.8 | $495.4 | +45% |
| 2022 | $495.4 | $531.3 | +7.3% |
| 2023 | $531.3 | $526.5 | -0.9% |
| 2024 | $526.5 | $510.0 | -3.1% |
| 2025 | $510.0 | $331.8 | -35% |
| 2026 YTD | $331.8 | $405.1 | +22% |
UNH has the edge over PEN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.