ORLY
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.
ORLY has the edge over RIVN overall, supported by lower modeled downside.
RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
RIVN offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
ORLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Unavailable | |
| Healthy |
ORLY's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. There isn't enough data to rate its cash flow.
RIVN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
RIVN's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
ORLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 22x | $70.95 | -23% |
| Fair | 26x | $83.95 | -8.3% |
| Forward | 26x | $91.56 | — |
| Current | 28x | $91.56 | — |
| Expensive | 31x | $102 | +12% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ORLY's PE is in its expensive range at 28x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 26x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
RIVN PE Valuation
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ORLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ORLY, with profitability improving.
RIVN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect RIVN's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ORLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.57 | +9.2% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.27 | +13% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.15 | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.07 | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.97 | +9.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.89 | +7.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.80 | +5.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.72 | +3.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.71 | +5.4% |
ORLY has the edge over RIVN on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RIVN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.25 | +$0.83 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.58 | +$0.62 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.92 | +$0.77 |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.07 | +$1.62 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.08 | +$2.52 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.20 | +$2.76 |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.69 | +$2.08 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.69 | +$1.05 |
RIVN is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.25 per share over the past year, against $7.40 at its worst in late 2022.
ORLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.7B | +7.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B | +5.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.1B | +4% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.1B | +6.9% |
| Q3 2024 | $4.4B | +3.8% |
| Q2 2024 | $4.3B | +5% |
| Q1 2024 | $4B | +7.2% |
| Q4 2023 | $3.8B | +5.1% |
RIVN has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is up 7.8% for ORLY versus up 38% for RIVN.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 21% | +0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 20% | 0 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.7 points |
| Q3 2024 | 21% | -0.8 points |
| Q2 2024 | 20% | -0.8 points |
| Q1 2024 | 19% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2023 | 19% | 0 points |
ORLY's operating margin was 21% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
RIVN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +38% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | -26% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.6B | +78% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B | +32% |
RIVN's revenue is growing: $2.2B last quarter, up 38% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -41% | +22 points |
| Q2 2026 | -50% | +35 points |
| Q1 2026 | -64% | -11 points |
| Q4 2025 | -65% | -27 points |
| Q3 2025 | -63% | +71 points |
| Q2 2025 | -86% | +33 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +70 points |
| Q4 2024 | -38% | +82 points |
RIVN's operating margin was −41% last quarter, up 22 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2021.
ORLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $250.5M | -18% |
| Q2 2026 | $698.9M | +53% |
| Q1 2026 | $788.5M | +68% |
| Q4 2025 | $364.5M | +9.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $304.4M | -41% |
| Q2 2025 | $456.1M | -37% |
| Q1 2025 | $468.2M | +2.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $334M | +26% |
ORLY has the edge over RIVN on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RIVN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.1B | -$703M |
| Q2 2026 | -$849M | -$451M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -$549M |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.1B | -234% |
| Q3 2025 | -$421M | +$732M |
| Q2 2025 | -$398M | +$639M |
| Q1 2025 | -$526M | +$997M |
| Q4 2024 | $856M | +$2.3B |
RIVN has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$4.2B over the past year, against −$489M the year before.
ORLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2% | -16.7M shares |
| 1 year | -4.7% | -40.5M shares |
| 3 years | -11% | -96.6M shares |
| 5 years | -22% | -226M shares |
| Available history | -30% | -355M shares |
ORLY has the edge over RIVN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $922.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $500.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $420M |
| Q2 2025 | $617.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $559.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $472M |
ORLY spent $4B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 92% from the year before.
RIVN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +9.1% | +121M shares |
| 1 year | +19% | +226M shares |
| 3 years | +52% | +494M shares |
RIVN has 1.4B diluted shares, up 19% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | $6M |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
ORLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.5x | Healthy |
ORLY's net debt is about 1.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.5 years a year ago.
RIVN Net Leverage
RIVN's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
ORLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 62.9 | Neutral |
ORLY's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 63 (neutral).
RIVN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.6 | Neutral |
RIVN's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
ORLY PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | ORLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28x | 18x | 56% above |
| PE % | 67 | 47 | 20 pts above |
ORLY is trading at 28x earnings, a 56% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
RIVN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ORLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $88.3 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $88.3 | 3.7% above |
| 50 week MA | $90.9 | 0.7% above |
| 100 week MA | $92.2 | 0.7% below |
| 200 week MA | $79.6 | 15% above |
ORLY has the edge over RIVN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RIVN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.3 | 3.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $15.9 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $14.7 | 13% below |
| 200 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
RIVN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 15% below its 200-week average.
ORLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.2 | $30.8 | +5.6% |
| 2021 | $30.8 | $45.3 | +47% |
| 2022 | $45.3 | $55.6 | +23% |
| 2023 | $55.6 | $63.3 | +14% |
| 2024 | $63.3 | $79.8 | +26% |
| 2025 | $79.8 | $92.3 | +16% |
| 2026 YTD | $92.3 | $91.6 | -0.7% |
ORLY has the edge over RIVN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
RIVN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $130.0 | $96.8 | -25% |
| 2022 | $96.8 | $19.1 | -80% |
| 2023 | $19.1 | $23.5 | +23% |
| 2024 | $23.5 | $13.7 | -42% |
| 2025 | $13.7 | $20.9 | +53% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.9 | $12.8 | -39% |
RIVN has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 39% so far in 2026.