NVS
Novartis AG
NVS's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
UNH has the edge over NVS overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
NVS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
NVS's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
UNH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
UNH's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
NVS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 13x | $67.63 | -58% |
| Fair | 19x | $98.78 | -38% |
| Expensive | 26x | $134 | -16% |
| Current | 31x | $160 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVS's PE is in its expensive range at 31x.
UNH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 18x | $405 | — |
| Cheap | 19x | $325 | -20% |
| Fair | 23x | $410 | +1.2% |
| Current | 23x | $405 | — |
| Expensive | 30x | $526 | +30% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UNH has the edge over NVS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
NVS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
NVS has the edge over UNH on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
UNH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect UNH's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NVS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.24 | -28% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.63 | -3.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.98 | +9.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.15 | +22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.31 | -15% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.86 | -13% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.39 | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.88 | -18% |
NVS's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $5.24 over the past year, against $10.73 in early 2022.
UNH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $22.65 | +29% |
| Q3 2026 | $17.55 | -8.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $15.58 | -33% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.28 | -44% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.23 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.17 | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $23.09 | +53% |
| Q1 2025 | $23.89 | +46% |
| Q4 2024 | $15.51 | -35% |
UNH has the edge over NVS on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NVS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $15B | +4.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $14.4B | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.5B | -0.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.3B | -1.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.4B | +9% |
| Q2 2025 | $14.8B | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $13.6B | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.6B | +15% |
NVS's revenue has held roughly level: $15B last quarter, up 4.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | -19 points |
| Q2 2026 | 33% | +0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 31% | -2.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 26% | +0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 31% | +3.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 33% | +1.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 34% | +6.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 26% | +4.1 points |
NVS has the edge over UNH on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
UNH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $112.7B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $112B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $111.7B | +2% |
| Q4 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $111.6B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $109.6B | +9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.8B | +6.8% |
UNH has the edge over NVS on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.8% | +2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.1% | +2.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.1% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3% | -7.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8% | -4.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.6% | -3.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.3% | +0.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.7% | -0.4 points |
UNH's operating margin was 5.8% last quarter, up 2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NVS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.8B | -17% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.6B | -8.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.9B | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.6B | -46% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B | +4.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.1B | +47% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.2B | +94% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.1B | +43% |
NVS's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $14.8B over the past year, down 13% from the year before.
UNH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.3B | -16% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.3B | +63% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.1B | +79% |
| Q4 2025 | $160M | -89% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.1B | -61% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.3B | +6.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.6B | +1037% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.5B | +$7.6B |
UNH still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2022 peak: $22.8B over the past year.
NVS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.5% | -9M shares |
| 1 year | -1.8% | -35M shares |
| 3 years | -8.2% | -170M shares |
| 5 years | -15% | -349M shares |
| Available history | -17% | -387M shares |
NVS has the edge over UNH on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.7B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q1 2026 | $1.9B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $2.3B |
| Q2 2025 | $2.7B |
| Q1 2025 | $2.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.8B |
NVS spent $6.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 40% from the year before.
UNH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -4M shares |
| 1 year | -0.7% | -6M shares |
| 3 years | -3.6% | -34M shares |
| 5 years | -5.5% | -53M shares |
| Available history | -6.6% | -64M shares |
UNH has 902M diluted shares, down 0.7% from a year ago, with $5B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $3B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
UNH spent $5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 52% from the year before.
NVS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.0x | Very low |
NVS's net debt is about 1.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from a year a year ago.
UNH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.4x | Healthy |
UNH has the edge over NVS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NVS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 85.0 | Overbought |
NVS's weekly RSI is 57 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 85 (overbought).
UNH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.0 | Neutral |
UNH's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
NVS PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31x | 26x | 18% above |
| PE % | 98 | 29 | 69 pts above |
NVS is trading at 31x earnings, a 18% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
UNH PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | UNH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 26x | 11% below |
| PE % | 47 | 29 | 18 pts above |
UNH has the edge over NVS on valuation relative to its sector.
NVS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $151.9 | 5.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $152.6 | 5% above |
| 50 week MA | $150.5 | 6.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $133.2 | 20% above |
| 200 week MA | $116.3 | 38% above |
NVS has the edge over UNH on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
UNH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $394.2 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $400.5 | 1.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $361.2 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $376.0 | 7.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $446.6 | 9.3% below |
UNH has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20-, 50- and 100-week averages, but 9.3% below its 200-week average.
NVS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $90.3 | $83.8 | -7.2% |
| 2021 | $83.8 | $82.0 | -2.1% |
| 2022 | $82.0 | $86.0 | +4.9% |
| 2023 | $86.0 | $101.0 | +17% |
| 2024 | $101.0 | $98.4 | -2.6% |
| 2025 | $98.4 | $139.2 | +41% |
| 2026 YTD | $139.2 | $160.3 | +15% |
NVS has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's up 15% so far in 2026.
UNH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $296.0 | $340.8 | +15% |
| 2021 | $340.8 | $495.4 | +45% |
| 2022 | $495.4 | $531.3 | +7.3% |
| 2023 | $531.3 | $526.5 | -0.9% |
| 2024 | $526.5 | $510.0 | -3.1% |
| 2025 | $510.0 | $331.8 | -35% |
| 2026 YTD | $331.8 | $405.1 | +22% |
UNH has the edge over NVS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.