NVS
Novartis AG
NVS's fundamentals are mixed, but it looks expensive: trading at 31x earnings, above its usual 19x. Its downside scenario is about four times its upside.
NVS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
NVS's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
NVS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 13x | $67.63 | -58% |
| Fair | 19x | $98.78 | -38% |
| Expensive | 26x | $134 | -16% |
| Current | 31x | $160 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVS's PE is in its expensive range at 31x.
NVS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for NVS, with profitability improving.
NVS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.24 | -28% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.63 | -3.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.98 | +9.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.15 | +22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.31 | -15% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.86 | -13% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.39 | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.88 | -18% |
NVS's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $5.24 over the past year, against $10.73 in early 2022.
NVS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $15B | +4.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $14.4B | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.5B | -0.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.3B | -1.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.4B | +9% |
| Q2 2025 | $14.8B | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $13.6B | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.6B | +15% |
NVS's revenue has held roughly level: $15B last quarter, up 4.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | -19 points |
| Q2 2026 | 33% | +0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 31% | -2.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 26% | +0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 31% | +3.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 33% | +1.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 34% | +6.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 26% | +4.1 points |
NVS's operating margin was 12% last quarter, down 19 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
NVS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.8B | -17% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.6B | -8.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.9B | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.6B | -46% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B | +4.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.1B | +47% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.2B | +94% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.1B | +43% |
NVS's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $14.8B over the past year, down 13% from the year before.
NVS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.5% | -9M shares |
| 1 year | -1.8% | -35M shares |
| 3 years | -8.2% | -170M shares |
| 5 years | -15% | -349M shares |
| Available history | -17% | -387M shares |
NVS has 1.9B diluted shares, down 1.8% from a year ago, with $6.2B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.7B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q1 2026 | $1.9B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $2.3B |
| Q2 2025 | $2.7B |
| Q1 2025 | $2.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.8B |
NVS spent $6.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 40% from the year before.
NVS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.0x | Very low |
NVS's net debt is about 1.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from a year a year ago.
NVS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 85.0 | Overbought |
NVS's weekly RSI is 57 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 85 (overbought).
NVS PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31x | 26x | 18% above |
| PE % | 98 | 29 | 69 pts above |
NVS is trading at 31x earnings, a 18% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
NVS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $151.9 | 5.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $152.6 | 5% above |
| 50 week MA | $150.5 | 6.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $133.2 | 20% above |
| 200 week MA | $116.3 | 38% above |
NVS is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 38% above its 200-week average.
NVS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $90.3 | $83.8 | -7.2% |
| 2021 | $83.8 | $82.0 | -2.1% |
| 2022 | $82.0 | $86.0 | +4.9% |
| 2023 | $86.0 | $101.0 | +17% |
| 2024 | $101.0 | $98.4 | -2.6% |
| 2025 | $98.4 | $139.2 | +41% |
| 2026 YTD | $139.2 | $160.3 | +15% |
NVS has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's up 15% so far in 2026.