NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
SERA
Sera Prognostics, Inc.
SERA has the edge over NVO overall, supported by stronger modeled upside.
NVO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
NVO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
SERA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
SERA's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
NVO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $40.65 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $53.56 | +32% |
| Fair | 27x | $103 | +154% |
| Expensive | 39x | $152 | +273% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVO's PE is 10x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
SERA PE Valuation
SERA has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NVO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NVO's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
SERA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses steady | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect SERA's revenue to grow, with its earnings and profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NVO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.42 | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.47 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.71 | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.49 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.36 | +21% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.15 | +27% |
NVO has the edge over SERA on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
SERA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.66 | +$0.11 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.66 | +$0.19 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.64 | +$0.30 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.67 | +$0.32 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.77 | +$0.22 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.85 | +$0.13 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.94 | +$0.13 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.99 | +$0.17 |
SERA is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.66 per share over the past year, against $1.43 at its worst in late 2022.
NVO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11.7B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.8B | -7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.1B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.7B | +30% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.6B | +21% |
NVO has the edge over SERA on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 62% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 50% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 47% | +1.6 points |
NVO has the edge over SERA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SERA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $42K | +163% |
| Q2 2026 | $30K | +76% |
| Q1 2026 | $14K | -63% |
| Q4 2025 | $10K | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $16K | -45% |
| Q2 2025 | $17K | -29% |
| Q4 2024 | $24K | -41% |
| Q3 2024 | $29K | -31% |
SERA's revenue is recovering but still below its 2023 peak: $42,000 last quarter, up 163% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -21160% | +34966 points |
| Q2 2026 | -33347% | +21477 points |
| Q1 2026 | -66857% | -42515 points |
| Q4 2025 | -89540% | -50278 points |
| Q3 2025 | -56125% | -25566 points |
| Q2 2025 | -54824% | -16269 points |
| Q1 2025 | -24342% | N/A |
| Q4 2024 | -39263% | -17682 points |
SERA's operating margin was −21160% last quarter, up 34965 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NVO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3B | +73% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.4B | -$4.7B |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | -2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.6B | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | -$632.6M | +$390.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.7B | +3.3% |
NVO has the edge over SERA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
SERA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$7.4M | -$843K |
| Q2 2026 | -$6.3M | -$573K |
| Q1 2026 | -$8.8M | -$1.2M |
| Q4 2025 | -$6.5M | -$182K |
| Q3 2025 | -$6.6M | +$432K |
| Q2 2025 | -$5.8M | +$181K |
| Q1 2025 | -$7.6M | -252% |
| Q4 2024 | -$6.3M | +$513K |
SERA has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$29M over the past year, against −$26M the year before.
NVO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -12.9M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -66.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.8% | -177M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -311M shares |
NVO has the edge over SERA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $520M |
| Q1 2026 | $356.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $206.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | $357.4M |
NVO spent $877M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
SERA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +313K shares |
| 1 year | +2.6% | +1.3M shares |
| 3 years | +62% | +19.5M shares |
| 5 years | +66% | +20.3M shares |
| Available history | +180% | +32.7M shares |
SERA has 51M diluted shares, up 2.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
NVO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
NVO's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
SERA Net Leverage
SERA's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
NVO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.0 | Neutral |
NVO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
SERA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.3 | Neutral |
SERA's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 57 (neutral).
NVO PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 26x | 60% below |
| PE % | 6 | 29 | 23 pts below |
NVO is trading at 10x earnings, a 60% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x, though its earnings don't support one.
SERA PE vs Healthcare Sector
SERA has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NVO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.2 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 7.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $45.3 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $80.7 | 50% below |
NVO has the edge over SERA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
SERA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $2.06 | 3.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $2.05 | 3.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $2.29 | 14% below |
| 100 week MA | $2.97 | 33% below |
| 200 week MA | $4.19 | 53% below |
SERA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 53% below its 200-week average.
NVO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.1 | $34.7 | +19% |
| 2021 | $34.7 | $54.2 | +56% |
| 2022 | $54.2 | $67.0 | +24% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $103.5 | +54% |
| 2024 | $103.5 | $87.4 | -16% |
| 2025 | $87.4 | $52.4 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.4 | $40.7 | -22% |
NVO has the edge over SERA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
SERA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $11.0 | $8.00 | -27% |
| 2022 | $8.00 | $1.60 | -80% |
| 2023 | $1.60 | $5.98 | +274% |
| 2024 | $5.98 | $8.00 | +34% |
| 2025 | $8.00 | $3.52 | -56% |
| 2026 YTD | $3.52 | $1.98 | -44% |
SERA's yearly returns have swung widely, from +274% in 2023 to −80% in 2022. It's down 44% so far in 2026.