NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
NVS
Novartis AG
NVS has a slight edge over NVO overall on the model score.
NVO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
NVO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
NVS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
NVS's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
NVO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $40.65 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $53.56 | +32% |
| Fair | 27x | $103 | +154% |
| Expensive | 39x | $152 | +273% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVO has the edge over NVS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
NVS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 13x | $67.63 | -58% |
| Fair | 19x | $98.78 | -38% |
| Expensive | 26x | $134 | -16% |
| Current | 31x | $160 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVS's PE is in its expensive range at 31x.
NVO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NVO's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NVS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
NVS has the edge over NVO on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
NVO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.42 | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.47 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.71 | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.49 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.36 | +21% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.15 | +27% |
NVO has the edge over NVS on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NVS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.24 | -28% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.63 | -3.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.98 | +9.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.15 | +22% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.31 | -15% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.86 | -13% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.39 | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.88 | -18% |
NVS's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $5.24 over the past year, against $10.73 in early 2022.
NVO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11.7B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.8B | -7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.1B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.7B | +30% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.6B | +21% |
NVO has the edge over NVS on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 62% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 50% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 47% | +1.6 points |
NVO has the edge over NVS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NVS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $15B | +4.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $14.4B | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.5B | -0.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.3B | -1.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.4B | +9% |
| Q2 2025 | $14.8B | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $13.6B | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.6B | +15% |
NVS's revenue has held roughly level: $15B last quarter, up 4.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | -19 points |
| Q2 2026 | 33% | +0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 31% | -2.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 26% | +0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 31% | +3.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 33% | +1.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 34% | +6.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 26% | +4.1 points |
NVS's operating margin was 12% last quarter, down 19 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
NVO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3B | +73% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.4B | -$4.7B |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | -2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.6B | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | -$632.6M | +$390.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.7B | +3.3% |
NVO still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $7.3B over the past year.
NVS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.8B | -17% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.6B | -8.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.9B | +33% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.6B | -46% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B | +4.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.1B | +47% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.2B | +94% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.1B | +43% |
NVS's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $14.8B over the past year, down 13% from the year before.
NVO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -12.9M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -66.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.8% | -177M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -311M shares |
NVO has 4.4B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $520M |
| Q1 2026 | $356.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $206.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | $357.4M |
NVO spent $877M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
NVS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.5% | -9M shares |
| 1 year | -1.8% | -35M shares |
| 3 years | -8.2% | -170M shares |
| 5 years | -15% | -349M shares |
| Available history | -17% | -387M shares |
NVS has the edge over NVO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.7B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q1 2026 | $1.9B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $2.3B |
| Q2 2025 | $2.7B |
| Q1 2025 | $2.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.8B |
NVS spent $6.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 40% from the year before.
NVO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
NVO has the edge over NVS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NVS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.0x | Very low |
NVS's net debt is about 1.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from a year a year ago.
NVO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.0 | Neutral |
NVO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
NVS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 85.0 | Overbought |
NVS's weekly RSI is 57 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 85 (overbought).
NVO PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 26x | 60% below |
| PE % | 6 | 29 | 23 pts below |
NVO has the edge over NVS on valuation relative to its sector.
NVS PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31x | 26x | 18% above |
| PE % | 98 | 29 | 69 pts above |
NVS is trading at 31x earnings, a 18% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
NVO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.2 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 7.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $45.3 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $80.7 | 50% below |
NVO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 50% below its 200-week average.
NVS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $151.9 | 5.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $152.6 | 5% above |
| 50 week MA | $150.5 | 6.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $133.2 | 20% above |
| 200 week MA | $116.3 | 38% above |
NVS has the edge over NVO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NVO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.1 | $34.7 | +19% |
| 2021 | $34.7 | $54.2 | +56% |
| 2022 | $54.2 | $67.0 | +24% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $103.5 | +54% |
| 2024 | $103.5 | $87.4 | -16% |
| 2025 | $87.4 | $52.4 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.4 | $40.7 | -22% |
NVO has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 22% so far in 2026.
NVS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $90.3 | $83.8 | -7.2% |
| 2021 | $83.8 | $82.0 | -2.1% |
| 2022 | $82.0 | $86.0 | +4.9% |
| 2023 | $86.0 | $101.0 | +17% |
| 2024 | $101.0 | $98.4 | -2.6% |
| 2025 | $98.4 | $139.2 | +41% |
| 2026 YTD | $139.2 | $160.3 | +15% |
NVS has the edge over NVO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.