NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA has the edge over TOST overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
TOST
Toast, Inc.
TOST's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
NVDA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
NVDA's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.
TOST Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
TOST's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NVDA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 12x | $166 | — |
| Current | 21x | $166 | — |
| Cheap | 44x | $345 | +108% |
| Fair | 65x | $511 | +207% |
| Expensive | 93x | $734 | +342% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVDA has the edge over TOST in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
TOST PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 20x | $33.52 | — |
| Current | 36x | $33.52 | — |
| Cheap | 40x | $37.16 | +11% |
| Fair | 72x | $67.15 | +100% |
| Expensive | 162x | $151 | +351% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TOST's PE is in its cheap range at 36x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings.
NVDA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Broad | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for NVDA, but weaker profitability.
TOST Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
TOST has the edge over NVDA on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
NVDA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.77 | +74% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.91 | +125% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.53 | +111% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.90 | +67% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.03 | +59% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.51 | +65% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.10 | +81% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.94 | +147% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.54 | +234% |
NVDA's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $7.91 over the past year, up 125% from the year before, and higher year over year for 13 quarters in a row.
TOST Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.67 | +79% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.93 | +98% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.80 | +111% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.67 | +148% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.56 | +1767% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.47 | +$0.56 |
| Q2 2025 | $0.38 | +$0.63 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.27 | +$0.73 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.03 | +$0.50 |
TOST's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $0.93 over the past year, up 98% from the year before, and higher year over year for 12 quarters in a row.
NVDA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $96.2B | +106% |
| Q2 2026 | $81.6B | +85% |
| Q1 2026 | $68.1B | +73% |
| Q4 2025 | $57B | +62% |
| Q3 2025 | $46.7B | +56% |
| Q2 2025 | $44.1B | +69% |
| Q1 2025 | $39.3B | +78% |
| Q4 2024 | $35.1B | +94% |
NVDA has the edge over TOST on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 66% | +5.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 66% | +17 points |
| Q1 2026 | 65% | +3.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 63% | +0.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 61% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 49% | -16 points |
| Q1 2025 | 61% | -0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 62% | +4.9 points |
NVDA has the edge over TOST on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TOST Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2B | +21% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.9B | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.6B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.6B | +22% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.6B | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.6B | +25% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.3B | +24% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B | +29% |
TOST's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2021: $2B last quarter, up 21% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.3% | +3.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 8% | +2.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 6.8% | +3.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.2% | +2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.1% | +2.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5.2% | +4.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3.2% | +8.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.4% | +7.8 points |
TOST's operating margin was 8.3% last quarter, up 3.2 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2020.
NVDA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $21.4B | +59% |
| Q2 2026 | $48.6B | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $34.9B | +124% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.1B | +32% |
| Q3 2025 | $13.5B | -0.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $26.2B | +75% |
| Q1 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q3 2024 | $13.5B | +113% |
NVDA's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for six years: $127B over the past year, up 76% from the year before.
TOST Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $181M | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $130M | -38% |
| Q1 2026 | $115M | +67% |
| Q4 2025 | $178M | +33% |
| Q3 2025 | $153M | +58% |
| Q2 2025 | $208M | +93% |
| Q1 2025 | $69M | +$102M |
| Q4 2024 | $134M | +148% |
TOST generated $604M in free cash flow over the past year, up 7.1% from the year before.
NVDA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -106M shares |
| 1 year | -1% | -247M shares |
| 3 years | -2.8% | -705M shares |
| 5 years | -4.1% | -1B shares |
| Available history | -1.8% | -435M shares |
NVDA has 24.3B diluted shares, down 1% from a year ago, with $55.3B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $19.7B |
| Q2 2026 | $19.3B |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8B |
| Q4 2025 | $12.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $9.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $14.1B |
| Q1 2025 | $7.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $11B |
NVDA spent $55.3B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 30% from the year before.
TOST Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +2M shares |
| 1 year | -2.8% | -17M shares |
| 3 years | +10% | +55.5M shares |
| 5 years | +147% | +353M shares |
| Available history | +28% | +131M shares |
TOST has the edge over NVDA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $163M |
| Q1 2026 | $323M |
| Q4 2025 | $53M |
| Q3 2025 | $23M |
| Q2 2025 | $14M |
| Q1 2025 | $17M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
TOST spent $539M buying back its own shares over the past year, about 10 times what it spent the year before.
NVDA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
NVDA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), after holding more cash than debt a year ago.
TOST Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -3.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -4.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -4.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -6.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -14.8x | Net Cash |
TOST has the edge over NVDA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NVDA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 33.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.1 | Oversold |
NVDA's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 18 (oversold).
TOST Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 54.0 | Neutral |
TOST's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 54 (neutral).
NVDA PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | NVDA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 28x | 25% below |
| PE % | 0 | 35 | 35 pts below |
NVDA has the edge over TOST on valuation relative to its sector.
TOST PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | TOST | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 36x | 28x | 29% above |
| PE % | 2 | 45 | 43 pts below |
TOST is trading at 36x earnings, a 29% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
NVDA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $208.9 | 20% below |
| 20 week MA | $212.0 | 22% below |
| 50 week MA | $199.9 | 17% below |
| 100 week MA | $175.1 | 5.1% below |
| 200 week MA | $123.6 | 34% above |
NVDA has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 34% above its 200-week average.
TOST Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $32.0 | 4.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $32.1 | 4.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $30.2 | 11% above |
| 100 week MA | $34.8 | 3.6% below |
| 200 week MA | $28.7 | 17% above |
TOST has the edge over NVDA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NVDA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $5.92 | $13.0 | +119% |
| 2021 | $13.0 | $29.6 | +128% |
| 2022 | $29.6 | $15.2 | -49% |
| 2023 | $15.2 | $49.5 | +226% |
| 2024 | $49.5 | $137.0 | +177% |
| 2025 | $137.0 | $190.5 | +39% |
| 2026 YTD | $190.5 | $166.2 | -13% |
NVDA's yearly returns have swung widely, from +226% in 2023 to −49% in 2022. It's down 13% so far in 2026.
TOST Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $55.8 | $39.6 | -29% |
| 2022 | $39.6 | $17.6 | -56% |
| 2023 | $17.6 | $18.3 | +3.6% |
| 2024 | $18.3 | $37.5 | +105% |
| 2025 | $37.5 | $36.4 | -2.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $36.4 | $33.5 | -8% |
TOST has the edge over NVDA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.