NKE
NIKE, Inc.
NKE has a slight edge over ULTA overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc.
ULTA offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
NKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
NKE's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
ULTA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
ULTA's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
NKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $37.76 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $47.70 | +26% |
| Forward | 30x | $37.76 | — |
| Fair | 33x | $68.16 | +80% |
| Expensive | 47x | $97.86 | +159% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NKE has the edge over ULTA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
ULTA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $448 | -31% |
| Fair | 20x | $561 | -14% |
| Forward | 21x | $651 | — |
| Current | 24x | $651 | — |
| Expensive | 29x | $809 | +24% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ULTA's PE is in its expensive range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 21x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
NKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NKE's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ULTA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
ULTA has the edge over NKE on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
NKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.09 | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.10 | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.51 | -50% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70 | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95 | -44% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.16 | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.01 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.24 | -5.3% |
NKE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.09 over the past year, against $3.82 in late 2021.
ULTA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $31.27 | +14% |
| Q3 2026 | $27.45 | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $26.68 | +4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $25.64 | +1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $26.05 | +4.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $26.05 | +4.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.57 | -0.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $25.34 | -2.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $24.97 | +1.3% |
ULTA has the edge over NKE on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.2B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $11B | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.4B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.7B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.3B | -9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.4B | -7.7% |
NKE's revenue fell from its 2023 peak and has held roughly level since: $11.2B last quarter, down 4.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.2% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +9.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | -3.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.9 points |
NKE's operating margin was 8.2% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
ULTA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3B | +8.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.2B | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.9B | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.9B | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.8B | +9.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.8B | +4.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.5B | -1.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.5B | +1.7% |
ULTA has the edge over NKE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 13% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 12% | -2.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | -1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 12% | -0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | -0.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 15% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 13% | -0.6 points |
ULTA has the edge over NKE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$64M | -527% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +313% |
| Q1 2026 | $284M | -83% |
| Q4 2025 | $386M | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $15M | -95% |
| Q2 2025 | $363M | -85% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $920M | -65% |
NKE usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$64M, but it generated $2.1B over the past year.
ULTA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $38.4M | +96% |
| Q2 2026 | $203.6M | +44% |
| Q1 2026 | $989M | +2.7% |
| Q4 2025 | -$81.6M | +$89.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $19.6M | -81% |
| Q2 2025 | $141M | +106% |
| Q1 2025 | $962.6M | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | -$171.1M | +$6M |
ULTA has the edge over NKE on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +3.2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -59.1M shares |
| 5 years | -8.4% | -135M shares |
| Available history | -6.9% | -110M shares |
NKE has 1.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $20M |
| Q3 2025 | $126M |
| Q2 2025 | $199M |
| Q1 2025 | $506M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
NKE has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
ULTA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.1% | -902K shares |
| 1 year | -4.5% | -2M shares |
| 3 years | -14% | -6.8M shares |
| 5 years | -22% | -12M shares |
| Available history | -25% | -14.7M shares |
ULTA has the edge over NKE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $247.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $545.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $197.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $224.7M |
| Q3 2025 | $109.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $369.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $237.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $263.6M |
ULTA spent $1.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 24% from the year before.
NKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.1x | Very low |
NKE's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
ULTA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 0.0x | Very low |
ULTA has the edge over NKE on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
NKE's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
ULTA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 86.9 | Overbought |
ULTA's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 87 (overbought).
NKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.3% above |
| PE % | 2 | 47 | 45 pts below |
NKE has the edge over ULTA on valuation relative to its sector.
ULTA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | ULTA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 18x | 32% above |
| PE % | 72 | 47 | 25 pts above |
ULTA is trading at 24x earnings, a 32% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
NKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $36.7 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $39.2 | 3.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.0 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $58.4 | 35% below |
| 200 week MA | $79.2 | 52% below |
NKE has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 52% below its 200-week average.
ULTA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $601.6 | 8.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $548.9 | 19% above |
| 50 week MA | $565.1 | 15% above |
| 100 week MA | $508.9 | 28% above |
| 200 week MA | $475.4 | 37% above |
ULTA has the edge over NKE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.6 | $141.6 | +39% |
| 2021 | $141.6 | $165.7 | +17% |
| 2022 | $165.7 | $116.3 | -30% |
| 2023 | $116.3 | $108.6 | -6.6% |
| 2024 | $108.6 | $76.4 | -30% |
| 2025 | $76.4 | $60.9 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.9 | $37.8 | -38% |
NKE has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 38% so far in 2026.
ULTA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $253.2 | $264.6 | +4.5% |
| 2021 | $264.6 | $392.4 | +48% |
| 2022 | $392.4 | $456.4 | +16% |
| 2023 | $456.4 | $490.0 | +7.4% |
| 2024 | $490.0 | $442.2 | -9.8% |
| 2025 | $442.2 | $607.5 | +37% |
| 2026 YTD | $607.5 | $651.0 | +7.2% |
ULTA has the edge over NKE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.