NIO
NIO Inc.
NIO has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
W
Wayfair Inc.
W has the edge over NIO overall, supported by stronger modeled upside.
NIO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Unavailable |
NIO's revenue is currently strong, and its profitability and cash flow are stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
W Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
W's cash flow is currently healthy, and its revenue, profitability and balance sheet are stable.
NIO PE Valuation
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
W PE Valuation
W has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NIO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect NIO's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
W Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for W, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NIO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$0.29 | +$1.45 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.60 | +$1.16 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.06 | +$0.60 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.59 | +$0.02 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.74 | -$0.10 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.76 | +$0.06 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.66 | +$0.21 |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.61 | +$0.32 |
NIO is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.29 per share over the past year, against $1.93 at its worst in late 2023.
W Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.81 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$1.26 | +$1.29 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.47 | -$0.08 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.35 | +$0.49 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.44 | +$1.57 |
| Q3 2025 | -$2.55 | +$1.89 |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.39 | +$2.85 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.84 | +$2.47 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.01 | +$2.46 |
W is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.26 per share over the past year, against $12.72 at its worst in early 2023.
NIO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.8B | +69% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8B | +112% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.2B | +76% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.3B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.9B | +9% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8B | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | +15% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.8B | -2.1% |
NIO's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $4.8B last quarter, up 69% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -2.1% | +24 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2% | +52 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3% | +33 points |
| Q3 2025 | -16% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | -26% | +4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -31% | +8.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | -28% | -2.6 points |
NIO's operating margin was −2.1% last quarter, up 24 points from the same quarter a year ago.
W Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.4B | +9.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.5B | +7.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.9B | +7.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.3B | +6.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | +8.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.3B | +5% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.7B | 0% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.1B | +0.2% |
W's revenue has grown year over year for eight quarters in a row: $3.4B last quarter, up 9.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.1% | +1.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3% | +2.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.4% | +4.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.5% | +6.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.2% | +3.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5% | +1.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | -4.5% | +4.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -3.8% | +1.8 points |
W has the edge over NIO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NIO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0 | +$2.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2025 | $0 | +$391.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.1B | +$73.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2024 | -$391.3M | -386% |
| Q2 2024 | -$2.2B | +$337.9M |
NIO's free cash flow was $0 over the past year, against −$2.5B the year before.
W Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $168M | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $334M | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | -$77M | +$24M |
| Q4 2025 | $177M | +25% |
| Q3 2025 | $128M | +300% |
| Q2 2025 | $260M | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | -$101M | +$51M |
| Q4 2024 | $142M | +28% |
W has the edge over NIO on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NIO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +15.6M shares |
| 1 year | +12% | +267M shares |
| 3 years | +51% | +844M shares |
| 5 years | +60% | +933M shares |
| Available history | +143% | +1.5B shares |
NIO has 2.5B diluted shares, up 12% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
NIO hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
W Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +4.5% | +6M shares |
| 1 year | +6.2% | +8M shares |
| 3 years | +19% | +22M shares |
| 5 years | +33% | +33.9M shares |
| Available history | +50% | +45.8M shares |
W has the edge over NIO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | $75M |
NIO Net Leverage
NIO's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
W Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 4.6x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 5.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 12.7x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 33.2x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 103.9x | High |
| Q4 2021 | 5.9x | High |
W's net debt is about 2.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 13 years a year ago.
NIO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.9 | Oversold |
NIO's weekly RSI is 31 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
W Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 67.1 | Neutral |
W's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 67 (neutral).
NIO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
W PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | W | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
W has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
NIO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.36 | 9.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.01 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.81 | 37% below |
| 100 week MA | $4.85 | 37% below |
| 200 week MA | $6.03 | 49% below |
NIO is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 49% below its 200-week average.
W Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $108.0 | 3.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $101.0 | 10% above |
| 50 week MA | $91.2 | 22% above |
| 100 week MA | $74.9 | 49% above |
| 200 week MA | $63.9 | 74% above |
W has the edge over NIO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NIO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.42 | $45.8 | +1791% |
| 2021 | $45.8 | $30.5 | -33% |
| 2022 | $30.5 | $11.0 | -64% |
| 2023 | $11.0 | $9.07 | -17% |
| 2024 | $9.07 | $4.48 | -51% |
| 2025 | $4.48 | $5.10 | +14% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.10 | $3.05 | -40% |
NIO's yearly returns have swung widely, from +1791% in 2020 to −64% in 2022. It's down 40% so far in 2026.
W Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $92.1 | $252.8 | +175% |
| 2021 | $252.8 | $204.4 | -19% |
| 2022 | $204.4 | $33.6 | -84% |
| 2023 | $33.6 | $61.7 | +84% |
| 2024 | $61.7 | $43.8 | -29% |
| 2025 | $43.8 | $102.2 | +134% |
| 2026 YTD | $102.2 | $111.5 | +9.1% |
W has the edge over NIO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.