NIO
NIO Inc.
NIO offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
TM
Toyota Motor Corporation
TM has a slight edge over NIO overall, supported by lower modeled downside.
NIO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Unavailable |
NIO's revenue is currently strong, and its profitability and cash flow are stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
TM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
TM's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
NIO PE Valuation
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
TM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.9x | $175 | -16% |
| Current | 9.4x | $210 | — |
| Fair | 10x | $225 | +7.5% |
| Expensive | 13x | $290 | +38% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TM's PE is 9.4x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
NIO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
NIO has the edge over TM on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
TM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect TM's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
NIO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$0.29 | +$1.45 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.60 | +$1.16 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.06 | +$0.60 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.59 | +$0.02 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.74 | -$0.10 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.76 | +$0.06 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.66 | +$0.21 |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.61 | +$0.32 |
NIO is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.29 per share over the past year, against $1.93 at its worst in late 2023.
TM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $22.31 | +9.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $18.69 | -17% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.86 | -26% |
| Q3 2025 | $22.19 | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $20.41 | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $22.57 | -1.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $24.03 | +15% |
| Q3 2024 | $19.86 | +11% |
TM has the edge over NIO on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
NIO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.8B | +69% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8B | +112% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.2B | +76% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.3B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.9B | +9% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8B | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | +15% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.8B | -2.1% |
NIO's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $4.8B last quarter, up 69% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -2.1% | +24 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2% | +52 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3% | +33 points |
| Q3 2025 | -16% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | -26% | +4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -31% | +8.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | -28% | -2.6 points |
NIO's operating margin was −2.1% last quarter, up 24 points from the same quarter a year ago.
TM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $85.9B | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $80.4B | +3.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $85.9B | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.6B | +8.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.8B | +3.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $77.5B | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $77.7B | +2.9% |
| Q3 2024 | $71.7B | +0.1% |
TM's revenue has grown year over year for 18 quarters in a row: $85.9B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 7.9% | -1.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.5% | -4.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8.8% | -1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6.8% | -3.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9.5% | -1.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9% | -1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 9.8% | -4.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 10% | -2.5 points |
TM has the edge over NIO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NIO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0 | +$2.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2025 | $0 | +$391.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.1B | +$73.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2024 | -$391.3M | -386% |
| Q2 2024 | -$2.2B | +$337.9M |
NIO's free cash flow was $0 over the past year, against −$2.5B the year before.
TM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$4.8B | -221% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.5B | +153% |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.1B | +$320.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.3B | +$610.4M |
| Q2 2025 | $4B | +$4B |
| Q1 2025 | $592.5M | +$592.7M |
| Q4 2024 | -$3.4B | +$1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.9B | -$637.3M |
TM has the edge over NIO on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NIO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +15.6M shares |
| 1 year | +12% | +267M shares |
| 3 years | +51% | +844M shares |
| 5 years | +60% | +933M shares |
| Available history | +143% | +1.5B shares |
NIO has 2.5B diluted shares, up 12% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
NIO hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
TM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -6.1% | -79.5M shares |
| 1 year | -6.1% | -79.4M shares |
| 3 years | -9.7% | -132M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -174M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -202M shares |
TM has the edge over NIO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $22.9B |
| Q1 2026 | $50,144 |
| Q4 2025 | $50,144 |
| Q3 2025 | $37,608 |
| Q2 2025 | $250.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $835.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $891.9M |
| Q3 2024 | $5.5B |
TM spent $22.9B buying back its own shares over the past year, about three times what it spent the year before.
NIO Net Leverage
NIO's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
TM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 4.5x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.1x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 4.7x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q3 2024 | 3.4x | Elevated |
TM's net debt is about 4.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.7 years a year ago.
NIO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.9 | Oversold |
NIO's weekly RSI is 31 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
TM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 60.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 77.3 | Neutral |
TM's weekly RSI is 60 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 77 (neutral).
NIO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
TM PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | TM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.4x | 18x | 48% below |
| PE % | 35 | 47 | 12 pts below |
TM is trading at 9.4x earnings, a 48% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x, though its earnings don't support one.
NIO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.36 | 9.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.01 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.81 | 37% below |
| 100 week MA | $4.85 | 37% below |
| 200 week MA | $6.03 | 49% below |
NIO is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 49% below its 200-week average.
TM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $196.3 | 6.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $191.3 | 9.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $201.5 | 4% above |
| 100 week MA | $194.5 | 7.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $187.8 | 12% above |
TM has the edge over NIO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NIO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.42 | $45.8 | +1791% |
| 2021 | $45.8 | $30.5 | -33% |
| 2022 | $30.5 | $11.0 | -64% |
| 2023 | $11.0 | $9.07 | -17% |
| 2024 | $9.07 | $4.48 | -51% |
| 2025 | $4.48 | $5.10 | +14% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.10 | $3.05 | -40% |
NIO's yearly returns have swung widely, from +1791% in 2020 to −64% in 2022. It's down 40% so far in 2026.
TM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $141.3 | $150.5 | +6.5% |
| 2021 | $150.5 | $183.8 | +22% |
| 2022 | $183.8 | $137.1 | -25% |
| 2023 | $137.1 | $183.4 | +34% |
| 2024 | $183.4 | $199.5 | +8.8% |
| 2025 | $199.5 | $216.6 | +8.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $216.6 | $209.7 | -3.2% |
TM has the edge over NIO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.