MTH

Meritage Homes Corporation

25
Fundamentals44/ 100
Valuation9/ 100
Upside potential30/ 100
Risk potential37/ 100

MTH trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.

TSLA

Tesla, Inc.

52
Fundamentals48/ 100
Valuation27/ 100
Upside potential47/ 100
Risk potential34/ 100

TSLA has the edge over MTH overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.

MTH Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Unavailable
Stable
Unavailable
Under pressure

MTH's profitability is currently stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its revenue and cash flow.

TSLA Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Stable
Under pressure
Strong

TSLA's revenue and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.

MTH PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE4.0x8.1x12x16x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE4.0x8.1x12x16x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap4.8x$21.55-67%
Fair7.7x$34.14-47%
Expensive11x$46.91-28%
Current15x$64.80—
Forward16x$64.80—

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

MTH has the edge over TSLA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.

TSLA PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE433x867x1300x1733x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE433x867x1300x1733x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap60x$54.70-86%
Fair174x$158-60%
Forward196x$397—
Expensive415x$378-4.9%
Current437x$397—

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

TSLA's PE is in its expensive range at 437x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 196x next year's earnings, in its fair range.

MTH Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Deteriorating
Strong decline
Decline
Weakening
Limited
Low

Analysts expect MTH's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

TSLA Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Growth
Growth
Stable
Limited
Low

TSLA has the edge over MTH on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.

MTH Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+15%$74.83
Downside-37%$41.04

Calculated from the latest close: $64.80 on Nov 12.

MTH trails TSLA on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside and more potential downside.

TSLA Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+30%$515.78
Downside-34%$263.05

Calculated from the latest close: $397.45 on Nov 12.

TSLA has a better modeled risk to reward balance than MTH, with more potential upside and less potential downside.

MTH Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $9.96Q1 2024: $10.72Q2 2024: $11.37Q3 2024: $11.05Q4 2024: $10.72Q1 2025: $9.88Q2 2025: $8.77Q3 2025: $7.49Q4 2025: $6.35Q1 2026: $5.48Q2 2026: $4.81Q3 2026: $4.46Forward: $3.93
Q4 2023: $9.96Q1 2024: $10.72Q2 2024: $11.37Q3 2024: $11.05Q4 2024: $10.72Q1 2025: $9.88Q2 2025: $8.77Q3 2025: $7.49Q4 2025: $6.35Q1 2026: $5.48Q2 2026: $4.81Q3 2026: $4.46Forward: $3.93
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$3.93-12%
Q3 2026$4.46-40%
Q2 2026$4.81-45%
Q1 2026$5.48-45%
Q4 2025$6.35-41%
Q3 2025$7.49-32%
Q2 2025$8.77-23%
Q1 2025$9.88-7.8%
Q4 2024$10.72+7.6%

MTH has the edge over TSLA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

TSLA Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $4.30Q1 2024: $3.91Q2 2024: $3.55Q3 2024: $3.64Q4 2024: $2.04Q1 2025: $1.82Q2 2025: $1.73Q3 2025: $1.50Q4 2025: $1.08Q1 2026: $1.09Q2 2026: $1.08Q3 2026: $0.91Forward: $2.03
Q4 2023: $4.30Q1 2024: $3.91Q2 2024: $3.55Q3 2024: $3.64Q4 2024: $2.04Q1 2025: $1.82Q2 2025: $1.73Q3 2025: $1.50Q4 2025: $1.08Q1 2026: $1.09Q2 2026: $1.08Q3 2026: $0.91Forward: $2.03
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$2.03+123%
Q3 2026$0.91-39%
Q2 2026$1.08-38%
Q1 2026$1.09-40%
Q4 2025$1.08-47%
Q3 2025$1.50-59%
Q2 2025$1.73-51%
Q1 2025$1.82-53%
Q4 2024$2.04-53%

TSLA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.91 over the past year, against $4.30 in late 2023.

MTH Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: --Q1 2024: --Q2 2024: --Q3 2024: --Q4 2024: --Q1 2025: --Q2 2025: --Q3 2025: --Q4 2025: --Q1 2026: --Q2 2026: --Q3 2026: --
Q4 2023: --Q1 2024: --Q2 2024: --Q3 2024: --Q4 2024: --Q1 2025: --Q2 2025: --Q3 2025: --Q4 2025: --Q1 2026: --Q2 2026: --Q3 2026: --

MTH and TSLA do not have enough comparable growth data to identify a winner.

TSLA Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $25.2BQ1 2024: $21.3BQ2 2024: $25.5BQ3 2024: $25.2BQ4 2024: $25.7BQ1 2025: $19.3BQ2 2025: $22.5BQ3 2025: $28.1BQ4 2025: $24.9BQ1 2026: $22.4BQ2 2026: $28.2BQ3 2026: $28B
Q4 2023: $25.2BQ1 2024: $21.3BQ2 2024: $25.5BQ3 2024: $25.2BQ4 2024: $25.7BQ1 2025: $19.3BQ2 2025: $22.5BQ3 2025: $28.1BQ4 2025: $24.9BQ1 2026: $22.4BQ2 2026: $28.2BQ3 2026: $28B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$28B-0.2%
Q2 2026$28.2B+26%
Q1 2026$22.4B+16%
Q4 2025$24.9B-3.1%
Q3 2025$28.1B+12%
Q2 2025$22.5B-12%
Q1 2025$19.3B-9.2%
Q4 2024$25.7B+2.1%

TSLA's revenue has picked up after two years of holding roughly level: $28B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.

MTH Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$111MQ1 2024: $76MQ2 2024: −$125MQ3 2024: −$100MQ4 2024: −$107MQ1 2025: −$48MQ2 2025: $7MQ3 2025: −$104MQ4 2025: $238MQ1 2026: $97MQ2 2026: $184MQ3 2026: −$35M
Q4 2023: −$111MQ1 2024: $76MQ2 2024: −$125MQ3 2024: −$100MQ4 2024: −$107MQ1 2025: −$48MQ2 2025: $7MQ3 2025: −$104MQ4 2025: $238MQ1 2026: $97MQ2 2026: $184MQ3 2026: −$35M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$35.3M+$69M
Q2 2026$183.9M+2552%
Q1 2026$97M+$145.2M
Q4 2025$238.1M+$345.1M
Q3 2025-$104.3M-$4.3M
Q2 2025$6.9M+$131.8M
Q1 2025-$48.2M-164%
Q4 2024-$107M+$4.4M

MTH has the edge over TSLA on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

TSLA Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $2.1BQ1 2024: −$2.5BQ2 2024: $1.3BQ3 2024: $2.7BQ4 2024: $2BQ1 2025: $664MQ2 2025: $146MQ3 2025: $4BQ4 2025: $1.4BQ1 2026: $1.4BQ2 2026: −$1.1BQ3 2026: $1.5B
Q4 2023: $2.1BQ1 2024: −$2.5BQ2 2024: $1.3BQ3 2024: $2.7BQ4 2024: $2BQ1 2025: $664MQ2 2025: $146MQ3 2025: $4BQ4 2025: $1.4BQ1 2026: $1.4BQ2 2026: −$1.1BQ3 2026: $1.5B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$1.5B-62%
Q2 2026-$1.1B-848%
Q1 2026$1.4B+117%
Q4 2025$1.4B-30%
Q3 2025$4B+46%
Q2 2025$146M-89%
Q1 2025$664M+$3.2B
Q4 2024$2B-1.6%

TSLA still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2025 peak: $3.3B over the past year.

MTH Total Shares

Q4 2023: 74MQ1 2024: 74MQ2 2024: 73MQ3 2024: 73MQ4 2024: 73MQ1 2025: 73MQ2 2025: 72MQ3 2025: 71MQ4 2025: 71MQ1 2026: 68MQ2 2026: 66MQ3 2026: 65M
Q4 2023: 74MQ1 2024: 74MQ2 2024: 73MQ3 2024: 73MQ4 2024: 73MQ1 2025: 73MQ2 2025: 72MQ3 2025: 71MQ4 2025: 71MQ1 2026: 68MQ2 2026: 66MQ3 2026: 65M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-1.5%-1M shares
1 year-8.5%-6.1M shares
3 years-12%-9M shares
5 years-15%-11.3M shares
Available history-16%-12.7M shares

MTH has the edge over TSLA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

TSLA Total Shares

Q4 2023: 3.5BQ1 2024: 3.5BQ2 2024: 3.5BQ3 2024: 3.5BQ4 2024: 3.5BQ1 2025: 3.5BQ2 2025: 3.5BQ3 2025: 3.5BQ4 2025: 3.5BQ1 2026: 3.5BQ2 2026: 3.5BQ3 2026: 3.5B
Q4 2023: 3.5BQ1 2024: 3.5BQ2 2024: 3.5BQ3 2024: 3.5BQ4 2024: 3.5BQ1 2025: 3.5BQ2 2025: 3.5BQ3 2025: 3.5BQ4 2025: 3.5BQ1 2026: 3.5BQ2 2026: 3.5BQ3 2026: 3.5B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly0%+1M shares
1 year+0.4%+15M shares
3 years+1.4%+48M shares
5 years+5.1%+172M shares
Available history+33%+886M shares

TSLA has 3.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.

MTH Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 0.1xQ1 2024: 0.1xQ2 2024: 0.3xQ3 2024: 0.4xQ4 2024: 0.6xQ1 2025: 0.8xQ2 2025: 1.0xQ3 2025: 1.5xQ4 2025: 1.7xQ1 2026: 2.0xQ2 2026: 2.2xQ3 2026: 2.8x
Q4 2023: 0.1xQ1 2024: 0.1xQ2 2024: 0.3xQ3 2024: 0.4xQ4 2024: 0.6xQ1 2025: 0.8xQ2 2025: 1.0xQ3 2025: 1.5xQ4 2025: 1.7xQ1 2026: 2.0xQ2 2026: 2.2xQ3 2026: 2.8x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20262.8xModerate
Q2 20262.2xModerate
Q1 20262.0xHealthy
Q4 20251.7xHealthy
Q3 20251.5xHealthy
Q2 20251.0xHealthy
Q1 20250.8xVery low
Q4 20240.6xVery low

MTH's net debt is about 2.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.5 years a year ago.

TSLA Net Leverage

Q4 2023: -1.1xQ1 2024: -0.8xQ2 2024: -0.9xQ3 2024: -1.1xQ4 2024: -1.0xQ1 2025: -1.1xQ2 2025: -1.1xQ3 2025: -1.4xQ4 2025: -1.1xQ1 2026: -0.9xQ2 2026: -0.8xQ3 2026: -1.1x
Q4 2023: -1.1xQ1 2024: -0.8xQ2 2024: -0.9xQ3 2024: -1.1xQ4 2024: -1.0xQ1 2025: -1.1xQ2 2025: -1.1xQ3 2025: -1.4xQ4 2025: -1.1xQ1 2026: -0.9xQ2 2026: -0.8xQ3 2026: -1.1x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 2026-1.1xNet Cash
Q2 2026-0.8xNet Cash
Q1 2026-0.9xNet Cash
Q4 2025-1.1xNet Cash
Q3 2025-1.4xNet Cash
Q2 2025-1.1xNet Cash
Q1 2025-1.1xNet Cash
Q4 2024-1.0xNet Cash

TSLA has the edge over MTH on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.

MTH Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI46.5Neutral
Stochastic46.3Neutral

MTH's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 46 (neutral).

TSLA Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI54.3Neutral
Stochastic72.6Neutral

TSLA's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 73 (neutral).

MTH PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

MetricMTHSector medianRelative
PE15x18x19% below
PE %984751 pts above

MTH has the edge over TSLA on valuation relative to its sector.

TSLA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

MetricTSLASector medianRelative
PE437x18x2,324% above
PE %844737 pts above

TSLA is trading at 437x earnings, a 2324% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.

MTH Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$63.52% above
20 week MA$68.45.3% below
50 week MA$69.16.2% below
100 week MA$70.47.9% below
200 week MA$73.412% below

MTH has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 12% below its 200-week average.

TSLA Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$376.05.7% above
20 week MA$364.09.2% above
50 week MA$393.61% above
100 week MA$372.16.8% above
200 week MA$296.934% above

TSLA has the edge over MTH on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

MTH Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$30.7$44.2+44%
2021$44.2$58.5+32%
2022$58.5$46.1-21%
2023$46.1$87.1+89%
2024$87.1$77.1-12%
2025$77.1$66.8-13%
2026 YTD$66.8$64.8-3%

MTH has the edge over TSLA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

TSLA Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$28.7$220.6+669%
2021$220.6$355.7+61%
2022$355.7$123.2-65%
2023$123.2$248.5+102%
2024$248.5$431.7+74%
2025$431.7$475.2+10%
2026 YTD$475.2$397.5-16%

TSLA's yearly returns have swung widely, from +669% in 2020 to −65% in 2022. It's down 16% so far in 2026.

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