MTH
Meritage Homes Corporation
MTH's fundamentals are mixed, but it looks expensive: trading at 15x earnings, about twice its usual 7.7x. Analysts expect earnings to fall sharply, though they disagree widely on how much.
MTH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Unavailable | |
| Stable | |
| Unavailable | |
| Under pressure |
MTH's profitability is currently stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its revenue and cash flow.
MTH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 4.8x | $21.55 | -67% |
| Fair | 7.7x | $34.14 | -47% |
| Expensive | 11x | $46.91 | -28% |
| Current | 15x | $64.80 | — |
| Forward | 16x | $64.80 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MTH's PE is in its expensive range at 15x. Analysts expect earnings to fall, which would put today's price at 16x next year's earnings.
MTH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Strong decline | |
| Decline | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect MTH's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MTH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.93 | -12% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.46 | -40% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.81 | -45% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.48 | -45% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.35 | -41% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.49 | -32% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.77 | -23% |
| Q1 2025 | $9.88 | -7.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.72 | +7.6% |
MTH's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.46 over the past year, against $13.37 in late 2022.
MTH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | 23% | N/A |
MTH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$35.3M | +$69M |
| Q2 2026 | $183.9M | +2552% |
| Q1 2026 | $97M | +$145.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $238.1M | +$345.1M |
| Q3 2025 | -$104.3M | -$4.3M |
| Q2 2025 | $6.9M | +$131.8M |
| Q1 2025 | -$48.2M | -164% |
| Q4 2024 | -$107M | +$4.4M |
MTH's free cash flow has turned positive after two years mostly in the red: $484M over the past year.
MTH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.5% | -1M shares |
| 1 year | -8.5% | -6.1M shares |
| 3 years | -12% | -9M shares |
| 5 years | -15% | -11.3M shares |
| Available history | -16% | -12.7M shares |
MTH has 65M diluted shares, down 8.5% from a year ago, with $435M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $55M |
| Q2 2026 | $100M |
| Q1 2026 | $130M |
| Q4 2025 | $150M |
| Q3 2025 | $55M |
| Q2 2025 | $45M |
| Q1 2025 | $45M |
| Q4 2024 | $40M |
MTH spent $435M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 135% from the year before.
MTH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
MTH's net debt is about 2.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.5 years a year ago.
MTH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 46.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 46.3 | Neutral |
MTH's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 46 (neutral).
MTH PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | MTH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 18x | 19% below |
| PE % | 98 | 47 | 51 pts above |
MTH is trading at 15x earnings, a 19% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
MTH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $63.5 | 2% above |
| 20 week MA | $68.4 | 5.3% below |
| 50 week MA | $69.1 | 6.2% below |
| 100 week MA | $70.4 | 7.9% below |
| 200 week MA | $73.4 | 12% below |
MTH has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 12% below its 200-week average.
MTH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $30.7 | $44.2 | +44% |
| 2021 | $44.2 | $58.5 | +32% |
| 2022 | $58.5 | $46.1 | -21% |
| 2023 | $46.1 | $87.1 | +89% |
| 2024 | $87.1 | $77.1 | -12% |
| 2025 | $77.1 | $66.8 | -13% |
| 2026 YTD | $66.8 | $64.8 | -3% |
MTH has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 3% so far in 2026.