MSM
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.
MSM has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
VRT
Vertiv Holdings Co
VRT has the edge over MSM overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
MSM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
MSM's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
VRT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
VRT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.
MSM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 14x | $55.77 | -53% |
| Fair | 17x | $67.64 | -43% |
| Forward | 21x | $119 | — |
| Expensive | 25x | $98.52 | -18% |
| Current | 30x | $119 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSM's PE is in its expensive range at 30x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 21x next year's earnings.
VRT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 23x | $210 | — |
| Current | 39x | $210 | — |
| Cheap | 58x | $308 | +47% |
| Fair | 72x | $383 | +83% |
| Expensive | 88x | $472 | +125% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
VRT has the edge over MSM in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MSM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MSM, with profitability improving.
VRT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for VRT, with profitability improving.
MSM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.66 | +42% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.98 | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.15 | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.73 | -1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.67 | -12% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.57 | -22% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.54 | -31% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.79 | -32% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.19 | -29% |
MSM's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $3.98 over the past year, against $6.49 in early 2023.
VRT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.14 | +71% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.35 | +102% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.42 | +111% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.98 | +131% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.41 | +166% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.65 | +75% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.09 | +62% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.72 | +64% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.28 | +7.6% |
VRT has the edge over MSM on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | +10% |
| Q2 2026 | $1B | +7.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $917.8M | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $965.7M | +4% |
| Q3 2025 | $978.2M | +2.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $971.1M | -0.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $891.7M | -4.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $928.5M | -2.7% |
MSM's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $1.1B last quarter, up 10% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.8% | -1.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 10% | +1.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 7.1% | +0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.9% | +0.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 8.6% | -0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.5% | -2.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7% | -2.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.8% | -2.9 points |
MSM's operating margin was 6.8% last quarter, down 1.9 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
VRT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.3B | +61% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.3B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.6B | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.9B | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.7B | +29% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.6B | +35% |
| Q1 2025 | $2B | +24% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.3B | +26% |
VRT has the edge over MSM on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 23% | +3.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | +2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | +2.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 20% | +0.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 19% | +1.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | -0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 14% | +1.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | +4.2 points |
VRT has the edge over MSM on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MSM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $63.8M | +8.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $80.9M | +6.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $73.1M | +196% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4M | -91% |
| Q3 2025 | $58.5M | -28% |
| Q2 2025 | $76M | -33% |
| Q1 2025 | $24.7M | -54% |
| Q4 2024 | $81.7M | +30% |
MSM still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2023 peak: $225M over the past year.
VRT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $654.9M | +41% |
| Q2 2026 | $926.5M | +233% |
| Q1 2026 | $654.2M | +145% |
| Q4 2025 | $885.6M | +143% |
| Q3 2025 | $463.5M | +36% |
| Q2 2025 | $277.9M | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $266.8M | +162% |
| Q4 2024 | $364.5M | +18% |
VRT has the edge over MSM on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +96K shares |
| 3 years | -0.4% | -220K shares |
| 5 years | -0.2% | -103K shares |
| Available history | +1% | +546K shares |
MSM has the edge over VRT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $73,000 |
| Q2 2026 | $171,000 |
| Q1 2026 | $764,000 |
| Q4 2025 | $13M |
| Q3 2025 | $179,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $8.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $12.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $18.1M |
MSM spent $14M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 64% from the year before.
VRT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -64.9K shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +1.8M shares |
| 3 years | +1.1% | +4.4M shares |
| 5 years | +10% | +36M shares |
| Available history | +63% | +152M shares |
VRT has 393M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | $599.9M |
MSM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.0x | Healthy |
MSM's net debt is about a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
VRT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 1.0x | Healthy |
VRT has the edge over MSM on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MSM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 31.0 | Neutral |
MSM's weekly RSI is 52 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
VRT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 26.4 | Neutral |
VRT's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
MSM PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | MSM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30x | 24x | 25% above |
| PE % | 97 | 58 | 39 pts above |
MSM has the edge over VRT on valuation relative to its sector.
VRT PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | VRT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 39x | 24x | 63% above |
| PE % | 3 | 58 | 55 pts below |
VRT is trading at 39x earnings, a 63% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
MSM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $122.4 | 2.4% below |
| 20 week MA | $122.4 | 2.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $106.6 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $95.0 | 26% above |
| 200 week MA | $93.0 | 28% above |
MSM has the edge over VRT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
VRT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $221.8 | 5.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $254.4 | 18% below |
| 50 week MA | $253.9 | 17% below |
| 100 week MA | $189.1 | 11% above |
| 200 week MA | $123.5 | 70% above |
VRT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 70% above its 200-week average.
MSM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $79.0 | $85.9 | +8.7% |
| 2021 | $85.9 | $83.9 | -2.3% |
| 2022 | $83.9 | $83.3 | -0.8% |
| 2023 | $83.3 | $101.3 | +22% |
| 2024 | $101.3 | $74.8 | -26% |
| 2025 | $74.8 | $87.4 | +17% |
| 2026 YTD | $87.4 | $119.4 | +37% |
MSM has the edge over VRT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
VRT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $10.9 | $18.9 | +73% |
| 2021 | $18.9 | $24.9 | +31% |
| 2022 | $24.9 | $12.8 | -48% |
| 2023 | $12.8 | $48.0 | +275% |
| 2024 | $48.0 | $115.1 | +140% |
| 2025 | $115.1 | $167.6 | +46% |
| 2026 YTD | $167.6 | $209.6 | +25% |
VRT's yearly returns have swung widely, from +275% in 2023 to −48% in 2022. It's up 25% so far in 2026.