MSM
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.
MSM's fundamentals are mixed, but it looks expensive: trading at 30x earnings, above its usual 17x. Analysts expect strong earnings growth.
MSM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
MSM's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
MSM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 14x | $55.77 | -53% |
| Fair | 17x | $67.64 | -43% |
| Forward | 21x | $119 | — |
| Expensive | 25x | $98.52 | -18% |
| Current | 30x | $119 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSM's PE is in its expensive range at 30x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 21x next year's earnings.
MSM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MSM, with profitability improving.
MSM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.66 | +42% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.98 | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.15 | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.73 | -1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.67 | -12% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.57 | -22% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.54 | -31% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.79 | -32% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.19 | -29% |
MSM's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $3.98 over the past year, against $6.49 in early 2023.
MSM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | +10% |
| Q2 2026 | $1B | +7.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $917.8M | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $965.7M | +4% |
| Q3 2025 | $978.2M | +2.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $971.1M | -0.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $891.7M | -4.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $928.5M | -2.7% |
MSM's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $1.1B last quarter, up 10% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.8% | -1.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 10% | +1.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 7.1% | +0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.9% | +0.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 8.6% | -0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.5% | -2.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7% | -2.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.8% | -2.9 points |
MSM's operating margin was 6.8% last quarter, down 1.9 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
MSM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $63.8M | +8.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $80.9M | +6.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $73.1M | +196% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4M | -91% |
| Q3 2025 | $58.5M | -28% |
| Q2 2025 | $76M | -33% |
| Q1 2025 | $24.7M | -54% |
| Q4 2024 | $81.7M | +30% |
MSM still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2023 peak: $225M over the past year.
MSM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +96K shares |
| 3 years | -0.4% | -220K shares |
| 5 years | -0.2% | -103K shares |
| Available history | +1% | +546K shares |
MSM has 56M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $73,000 |
| Q2 2026 | $171,000 |
| Q1 2026 | $764,000 |
| Q4 2025 | $13M |
| Q3 2025 | $179,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $8.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $12.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $18.1M |
MSM spent $14M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 64% from the year before.
MSM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.0x | Healthy |
MSM's net debt is about a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
MSM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 31.0 | Neutral |
MSM's weekly RSI is 52 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
MSM PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | MSM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30x | 24x | 25% above |
| PE % | 97 | 58 | 39 pts above |
MSM is trading at 30x earnings, a 25% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
MSM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $122.4 | 2.4% below |
| 20 week MA | $122.4 | 2.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $106.6 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $95.0 | 26% above |
| 200 week MA | $93.0 | 28% above |
MSM has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8- and 20-week averages, but 28% above its 200-week average.
MSM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $79.0 | $85.9 | +8.7% |
| 2021 | $85.9 | $83.9 | -2.3% |
| 2022 | $83.9 | $83.3 | -0.8% |
| 2023 | $83.3 | $101.3 | +22% |
| 2024 | $101.3 | $74.8 | -26% |
| 2025 | $74.8 | $87.4 | +17% |
| 2026 YTD | $87.4 | $119.4 | +37% |
MSM is up 37% so far in 2026, after finishing lower in three of the previous six years.