MSM
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.
MSM has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
RDW
Redwire Corporation
RDW has the edge over MSM overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
MSM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
MSM's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
RDW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
RDW's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
MSM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 14x | $55.77 | -53% |
| Fair | 17x | $67.64 | -43% |
| Forward | 21x | $119 | — |
| Expensive | 25x | $98.52 | -18% |
| Current | 30x | $119 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSM's PE is in its expensive range at 30x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 21x next year's earnings.
RDW PE Valuation
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MSM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MSM, with profitability improving.
RDW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect RDW's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
MSM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.66 | +42% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.98 | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.15 | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.73 | -1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.67 | -12% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.57 | -22% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.54 | -31% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.79 | -32% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.19 | -29% |
MSM has the edge over RDW on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
RDW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.17 | +$2.01 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.37 | +$1.89 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.59 | -$0.32 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.28 | +$0.07 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.18 | -$1.97 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.26 | -$2.28 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.27 | -$1.55 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.35 | -$1.62 |
RDW is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.17 per share over the past year, against $3.26 at its worst in mid-2025.
MSM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | +10% |
| Q2 2026 | $1B | +7.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $917.8M | +2.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $965.7M | +4% |
| Q3 2025 | $978.2M | +2.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $971.1M | -0.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $891.7M | -4.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $928.5M | -2.7% |
MSM's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $1.1B last quarter, up 10% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.8% | -1.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 10% | +1.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 7.1% | +0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.9% | +0.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 8.6% | -0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.5% | -2.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7% | -2.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.8% | -2.9 points |
MSM has the edge over RDW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RDW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $109M | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $117.1M | +90% |
| Q1 2026 | $97M | +58% |
| Q4 2025 | $108.8M | +56% |
| Q3 2025 | $103.4M | +51% |
| Q2 2025 | $61.8M | -21% |
| Q1 2025 | $61.4M | -30% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6M | +9.6% |
RDW has the edge over MSM on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -24% | +16 points |
| Q2 2026 | -19% | +130 points |
| Q1 2026 | -72% | -49 points |
| Q4 2025 | -75% | -48 points |
| Q3 2025 | -40% | -22 points |
| Q2 2025 | -149% | -140 points |
| Q1 2025 | -23% | -19 points |
| Q4 2024 | -27% | -17 points |
RDW's operating margin was −24% last quarter, up 16 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MSM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $63.8M | +8.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $80.9M | +6.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $73.1M | +196% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4M | -91% |
| Q3 2025 | $58.5M | -28% |
| Q2 2025 | $76M | -33% |
| Q1 2025 | $24.7M | -54% |
| Q4 2024 | $81.7M | +30% |
MSM has the edge over RDW on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RDW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$65.3M | -$38.5M |
| Q2 2026 | -$33.5M | +$57.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.4M | +$35.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$26.5M | -659% |
| Q3 2025 | -$26.9M | -$7.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$90.6M | -$80.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$46.9M | -3996% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7M | -65% |
RDW has burned cash in most quarters: −$137M over the past year, against −$160M the year before.
MSM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +96K shares |
| 3 years | -0.4% | -220K shares |
| 5 years | -0.2% | -103K shares |
| Available history | +1% | +546K shares |
MSM has the edge over RDW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $73,000 |
| Q2 2026 | $171,000 |
| Q1 2026 | $764,000 |
| Q4 2025 | $13M |
| Q3 2025 | $179,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $8.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $12.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $18.1M |
MSM spent $14M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 64% from the year before.
RDW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +13% | +29.6M shares |
| 1 year | +179% | +160M shares |
| 3 years | +289% | +186M shares |
| 5 years | +319% | +190M shares |
RDW has 250M diluted shares, up 179% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
MSM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.0x | Healthy |
MSM's net debt is about a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
RDW Net Leverage
RDW's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
MSM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 31.0 | Neutral |
MSM's weekly RSI is 52 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
RDW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.1 | Oversold |
RDW's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
MSM PE vs Industrials Sector
| Metric | MSM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30x | 24x | 25% above |
| PE % | 97 | 58 | 39 pts above |
MSM is trading at 30x earnings, a 25% premium to the Industrials sector's median of 24x.
RDW PE vs Industrials Sector
RDW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MSM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $122.4 | 2.4% below |
| 20 week MA | $122.4 | 2.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $106.6 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $95.0 | 26% above |
| 200 week MA | $93.0 | 28% above |
MSM has the edge over RDW on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RDW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $9.06 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $10.1 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.6 | 24% below |
| 100 week MA | $11.6 | 31% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.07 | 0.5% below |
RDW is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 0.5% below its 200-week average.
MSM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $79.0 | $85.9 | +8.7% |
| 2021 | $85.9 | $83.9 | -2.3% |
| 2022 | $83.9 | $83.3 | -0.8% |
| 2023 | $83.3 | $101.3 | +22% |
| 2024 | $101.3 | $74.8 | -26% |
| 2025 | $74.8 | $87.4 | +17% |
| 2026 YTD | $87.4 | $119.4 | +37% |
MSM has the edge over RDW on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
RDW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $10.2 | $7.34 | -28% |
| 2022 | $7.34 | $1.92 | -74% |
| 2023 | $1.92 | $2.85 | +48% |
| 2024 | $2.85 | $17.1 | +501% |
| 2025 | $17.1 | $7.15 | -58% |
| 2026 YTD | $7.15 | $8.03 | +12% |
RDW's yearly returns have swung widely, from +501% in 2024 to −74% in 2022. It's up 12% so far in 2026.