MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has the edge over VRRM overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
VRRM
Verra Mobility Corporation
VRRM offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
VRRM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Under pressure |
VRRM's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its revenue and balance sheet are under pressure.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT has the edge over VRRM in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
VRRM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 2.6x | $1.96 | — |
| Current | 8.2x | $1.96 | — |
| Cheap | 31x | $7.49 | +282% |
| Fair | 46x | $11.05 | +464% |
| Expensive | 111x | $26.65 | +1260% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
VRRM's PE is in its cheap range at 8.2x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 2.6x.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
MSFT has the edge over VRRM on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
VRRM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong decline | |
| Decline | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect VRRM's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over VRRM on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
VRRM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.75 | +214% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.24 | -29% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.26 | 0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.82 | +273% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.85 | +347% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.34 | -43% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.26 | -54% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.22 | -56% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.19 | -47% |
VRRM earned $0.24 per share over the past year, down 29% from the year before.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over VRRM on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT's operating margin was 50% last quarter, up 0.9 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
VRRM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $28.3M | -21% |
| Q2 2026 | $25.8M | -22% |
| Q1 2026 | $27.3M | -13% |
| Q4 2025 | $32.7M | +0.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $35.7M | +26% |
| Q2 2025 | $33.2M | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $31.4M | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $32.4M | +17% |
VRRM's revenue has slid since its 2022 peak: $28M last quarter, down 21% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 232% | +22 points |
| Q2 2026 | -127% | -318 points |
| Q1 2026 | 190% | +7.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 132% | +266 points |
| Q3 2025 | 210% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 191% | -21 points |
| Q1 2025 | 182% | -24 points |
| Q4 2024 | -134% | -218 points |
VRRM has the edge over MSFT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
VRRM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $89.4M | +83% |
| Q2 2026 | $32.6M | -19% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.6M | -77% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.7M | -73% |
| Q3 2025 | $49M | -42% |
| Q2 2025 | $40.3M | +55% |
| Q1 2025 | $41.7M | +108% |
| Q4 2024 | $21.6M | +12% |
VRRM has the edge over MSFT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has 7.4B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
VRRM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +175K shares |
| 1 year | -6% | -9.7M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -17.4M shares |
| 5 years | -8% | -13.3M shares |
| Available history | -7.5% | -12.3M shares |
VRRM has the edge over MSFT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $50.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $133.4M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $148.5M |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
VRRM spent $185M buying back its own shares over the past year.
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT has the edge over VRRM on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
VRRM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.9x | Elevated |
VRRM's net debt is about 3.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.1 years a year ago.
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
VRRM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 18.4 | Oversold |
| Stochastic | 2.7 | Oversold |
VRRM's weekly RSI is 18 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 3 (oversold).
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT is trading at 27x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
VRRM PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | VRRM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.2x | 28x | 71% below |
| PE % | 3 | 35 | 32 pts below |
VRRM has the edge over MSFT on valuation relative to its sector.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT has the edge over VRRM on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
VRRM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $2.74 | 28% below |
| 20 week MA | $3.67 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.8 | 82% below |
| 100 week MA | $17.3 | 89% below |
| 200 week MA | $19.7 | 90% below |
VRRM is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 90% below its 200-week average.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has the edge over VRRM on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
VRRM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $14.0 | $13.5 | -3.6% |
| 2021 | $13.5 | $15.2 | +12% |
| 2022 | $15.2 | $13.5 | -11% |
| 2023 | $13.5 | $23.0 | +71% |
| 2024 | $23.0 | $24.1 | +4.6% |
| 2025 | $24.1 | $22.5 | -6.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $22.5 | $1.96 | -91% |
VRRM has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 91% so far in 2026.