VRRM
Verra Mobility Corporation
VRRM's fundamentals are mixed, but it looks cheap: trading at 8.2x earnings, less than half its usual 46x. Its downside scenario is about four times its upside.
VRRM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Under pressure |
VRRM's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its revenue and balance sheet are under pressure.
VRRM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 2.6x | $1.96 | — |
| Current | 8.2x | $1.96 | — |
| Cheap | 31x | $7.49 | +282% |
| Fair | 46x | $11.05 | +464% |
| Expensive | 111x | $26.65 | +1260% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
VRRM's PE is in its cheap range at 8.2x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 2.6x.
VRRM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong decline | |
| Decline | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect VRRM's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
VRRM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.76 | +218% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.24 | -29% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.26 | 0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.82 | +273% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.85 | +347% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.34 | -43% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.26 | -54% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.22 | -56% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.19 | -47% |
VRRM earned $0.24 per share over the past year, down 29% from the year before.
VRRM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $28.3M | -21% |
| Q2 2026 | $25.8M | -22% |
| Q1 2026 | $27.3M | -13% |
| Q4 2025 | $32.7M | +0.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $35.7M | +26% |
| Q2 2025 | $33.2M | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $31.4M | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $32.4M | +17% |
VRRM's revenue has slid since its 2022 peak: $28M last quarter, down 21% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 232% | +22 points |
| Q2 2026 | -127% | -318 points |
| Q1 2026 | 190% | +7.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 132% | +266 points |
| Q3 2025 | 210% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 191% | -21 points |
| Q1 2025 | 182% | -24 points |
| Q4 2024 | -134% | -218 points |
VRRM's operating margin was 232% last quarter, up 22 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
VRRM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $89.4M | +83% |
| Q2 2026 | $32.6M | -19% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.6M | -77% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.7M | -73% |
| Q3 2025 | $49M | -42% |
| Q2 2025 | $40.3M | +55% |
| Q1 2025 | $41.7M | +108% |
| Q4 2024 | $21.6M | +12% |
VRRM still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $137M over the past year.
VRRM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +175K shares |
| 1 year | -6% | -9.7M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -17.4M shares |
| 5 years | -8% | -13.3M shares |
| Available history | -7.5% | -12.3M shares |
VRRM has 152M diluted shares, down 6% from a year ago, with $185M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $50.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $133.4M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $148.5M |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
VRRM spent $185M buying back its own shares over the past year.
VRRM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.9x | Elevated |
VRRM's net debt is about 3.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.1 years a year ago.
VRRM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 18.4 | Oversold |
| Stochastic | 2.7 | Oversold |
VRRM's weekly RSI is 18 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 3 (oversold).
VRRM PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | VRRM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.2x | 28x | 71% below |
| PE % | 3 | 35 | 32 pts below |
VRRM is trading at 8.2x earnings, a 71% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
VRRM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $2.74 | 28% below |
| 20 week MA | $3.67 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.8 | 82% below |
| 100 week MA | $17.3 | 89% below |
| 200 week MA | $19.7 | 90% below |
VRRM is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 90% below its 200-week average.
VRRM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $14.0 | $13.5 | -3.6% |
| 2021 | $13.5 | $15.2 | +12% |
| 2022 | $15.2 | $13.5 | -11% |
| 2023 | $13.5 | $23.0 | +71% |
| 2024 | $23.0 | $24.1 | +4.6% |
| 2025 | $24.1 | $22.5 | -6.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $22.5 | $1.96 | -91% |
VRRM has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's down 91% so far in 2026.