MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has the edge over UPBD overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
UPBD
Upbound Group, Inc.
UPBD trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
UPBD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
UPBD's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT has the edge over UPBD in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
UPBD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 5.3x | $23.88 | — |
| Cheap | 11x | $21.16 | -11% |
| Current | 13x | $23.88 | — |
| Fair | 15x | $28.18 | +18% |
| Expensive | 31x | $59.71 | +150% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UPBD's PE is in its fair range at 13x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 5.3x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
MSFT has the edge over UPBD on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
UPBD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect UPBD's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over UPBD on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
UPBD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.52 | +136% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.91 | +32% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.55 | -13% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.44 | -32% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.25 | -43% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.45 | -2% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.78 | +76% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.13 | +$2.56 |
| Q4 2024 | $2.21 | +$2.30 |
UPBD's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.91 over the past year, against $3.86 in early 2020.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over UPBD on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over UPBD on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
UPBD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | -1.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | +0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2B | +3.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2B | +9% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2B | +7.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +7.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B | +6% |
UPBD's revenue has held roughly level: $1.1B last quarter, down 1.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.2% | +1.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4.7% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 6.3% | +1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 4.8% | -2.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 4.5% | -2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.4% | -3.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 5.3% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.3% | +1.8 points |
UPBD's operating margin was 6.2% last quarter, up 1.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
UPBD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $147M | +50% |
| Q2 2026 | $107.8M | +$118.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $154.7M | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $24M | +$98.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $97.9M | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | -$10.4M | -1802% |
| Q1 2025 | $127.2M | +278% |
| Q4 2024 | -$74M | -$37.1M |
UPBD has the edge over MSFT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has the edge over UPBD on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
UPBD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +59K shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -123K shares |
| 3 years | +3.4% | +1.9M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -9.4M shares |
| Available history | +5% | +2.8M shares |
UPBD has 59M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | $26M |
| Q4 2022 | $45.3M |
| Q4 2021 | $370.1M |
| Q3 2021 | $20M |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
UPBD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
UPBD has the edge over MSFT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
UPBD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 65.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 86.5 | Overbought |
UPBD's weekly RSI is 66 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 86 (overbought).
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT is trading at 27x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
UPBD PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | UPBD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13x | 28x | 55% below |
| PE % | 33 | 35 | 2 pts below |
UPBD has the edge over MSFT on valuation relative to its sector.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT's trend is up, with a small recent dip: it's below only its 8-week average, and 27% above its 200-week average.
UPBD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $18.7 | 28% above |
| 20 week MA | $19.2 | 24% above |
| 50 week MA | $19.1 | 25% above |
| 100 week MA | $21.7 | 10% above |
| 200 week MA | $26.2 | 8.9% below |
UPBD has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20-, 50- and 100-week averages, but 8.9% below its 200-week average.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 7.2% so far in 2026.
UPBD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $28.5 | $38.2 | +34% |
| 2021 | $38.2 | $48.1 | +26% |
| 2022 | $48.1 | $22.6 | -53% |
| 2023 | $22.6 | $34.0 | +50% |
| 2024 | $34.0 | $29.2 | -14% |
| 2025 | $29.2 | $17.6 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $17.6 | $23.9 | +36% |
UPBD has the edge over MSFT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.