MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
TOST
Toast, Inc.
TOST has a slight edge over MSFT overall, supported by stronger fundamentals.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
TOST Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
TOST's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT's PE is in its cheap range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 25x next year's earnings.
TOST PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 20x | $33.52 | — |
| Current | 36x | $33.52 | — |
| Cheap | 40x | $37.16 | +11% |
| Fair | 72x | $67.15 | +100% |
| Expensive | 162x | $151 | +351% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TOST has the edge over MSFT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
TOST Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
TOST has the edge over MSFT on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $19.15 over the past year, up 36% from the year before, and higher year over year for 14 quarters in a row.
TOST Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.67 | +79% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.93 | +98% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.80 | +111% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.67 | +148% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.56 | +1767% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.47 | +$0.56 |
| Q2 2025 | $0.38 | +$0.63 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.27 | +$0.73 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.03 | +$0.50 |
TOST's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $0.93 over the past year, up 98% from the year before, and higher year over year for 12 quarters in a row.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $92.3B last quarter, up 19% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over TOST on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TOST Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2B | +21% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.9B | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.6B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.6B | +22% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.6B | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.6B | +25% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.3B | +24% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B | +29% |
TOST has the edge over MSFT on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.3% | +3.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 8% | +2.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 6.8% | +3.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.2% | +2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.1% | +2.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5.2% | +4.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3.2% | +8.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.4% | +7.8 points |
TOST's operating margin was 8.3% last quarter, up 3.2 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2020.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
TOST Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $181M | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $130M | -38% |
| Q1 2026 | $115M | +67% |
| Q4 2025 | $178M | +33% |
| Q3 2025 | $153M | +58% |
| Q2 2025 | $208M | +93% |
| Q1 2025 | $69M | +$102M |
| Q4 2024 | $134M | +148% |
TOST has the edge over MSFT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has 7.4B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
TOST Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +2M shares |
| 1 year | -2.8% | -17M shares |
| 3 years | +10% | +55.5M shares |
| 5 years | +147% | +353M shares |
| Available history | +28% | +131M shares |
TOST has the edge over MSFT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $163M |
| Q1 2026 | $323M |
| Q4 2025 | $53M |
| Q3 2025 | $23M |
| Q2 2025 | $14M |
| Q1 2025 | $17M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
TOST spent $539M buying back its own shares over the past year, about 10 times what it spent the year before.
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
TOST Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -3.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -4.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -4.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -6.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -14.8x | Net Cash |
TOST has the edge over MSFT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
TOST Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 54.0 | Neutral |
TOST's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 54 (neutral).
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT has the edge over TOST on valuation relative to its sector.
TOST PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | TOST | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 36x | 28x | 29% above |
| PE % | 2 | 45 | 43 pts below |
TOST is trading at 36x earnings, a 29% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT's trend is up, with a small recent dip: it's below only its 8-week average, and 27% above its 200-week average.
TOST Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $32.0 | 4.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $32.1 | 4.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $30.2 | 11% above |
| 100 week MA | $34.8 | 3.6% below |
| 200 week MA | $28.7 | 17% above |
TOST's trend is mixed: it's above four of its five weekly moving averages, and 17% above its 200-week average.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has the edge over TOST on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
TOST Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $55.8 | $39.6 | -29% |
| 2022 | $39.6 | $17.6 | -56% |
| 2023 | $17.6 | $18.3 | +3.6% |
| 2024 | $18.3 | $37.5 | +105% |
| 2025 | $37.5 | $36.4 | -2.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $36.4 | $33.5 | -8% |
TOST's yearly returns have swung widely, from +105% in 2024 to −56% in 2022. It's down 8% so far in 2026.