MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has the edge over STM overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
STM
STMicroelectronics N.V.
STM offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
STM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
STM's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT has the edge over STM in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
STM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.6x | $5.40 | -88% |
| Fair | 21x | $11.96 | -74% |
| Expensive | 40x | $22.34 | -52% |
| Current | 83x | $46.46 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
STM's PE is in its expensive range at 83x.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
STM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
STM has the edge over MSFT on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over STM on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
STM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $0.56 | -1.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.51 | -25% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.16 | -86% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.18 | -89% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.57 | -77% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.68 | -79% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.17 | -70% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.65 | -63% |
STM's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.56 over the past year, against $4.89 in early 2023.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over STM on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over STM on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
STM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.8B | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.5B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.1B | +23% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.3B | +0.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.2B | -2.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.8B | -13% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.5B | -27% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.3B | -22% |
STM's revenue is recovering but still below its 2023 peak: $3.8B last quarter, up 18% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | +5.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.3% | +7.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.1% | +4.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 6.2% | -4.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.1% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | -0.9% | -13 points |
| Q1 2025 | -1.5% | -17 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -13 points |
STM's operating margin was 11% last quarter, up 5.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
STM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$121.5M | +$139.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $155.5M | +$182.5M |
| Q4 2025 | -$62.5K | -100% |
| Q3 2025 | $182.4M | +9019% |
| Q2 2025 | -$261M | -2275% |
| Q1 2025 | -$27M | +$108M |
| Q4 2024 | $65M | -83% |
| Q3 2024 | $2M | -100% |
STM has the edge over MSFT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has the edge over STM on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
STM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +3.7M shares |
| 1 year | +1.4% | +12.8M shares |
| 3 years | -1.3% | -12.1M shares |
| 5 years | +1% | +8.9M shares |
| Available history | +2.4% | +21.7M shares |
STM has 932M diluted shares, up 1.4% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $184M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $92M |
| Q1 2025 | $92M |
| Q4 2024 | $92M |
| Q3 2024 | $92M |
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT has the edge over STM on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
STM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
STM's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
STM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 22.3 | Neutral |
STM's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 22 (neutral).
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT has the edge over STM on valuation relative to its sector.
STM PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | STM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 83x | 28x | 198% above |
| PE % | 90 | 35 | 55 pts above |
STM is trading at 83x earnings, a 198% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT has the edge over STM on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
STM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $48.2 | 3.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $52.8 | 12% below |
| 50 week MA | $46.8 | 0.6% below |
| 100 week MA | $36.2 | 28% above |
| 200 week MA | $39.0 | 19% above |
STM has slipped below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, though it's still 19% above its 200-week average.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 7.2% so far in 2026.
STM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $27.1 | $36.9 | +36% |
| 2021 | $36.9 | $48.6 | +32% |
| 2022 | $48.6 | $35.9 | -26% |
| 2023 | $35.9 | $50.1 | +40% |
| 2024 | $50.1 | $25.5 | -49% |
| 2025 | $25.5 | $26.2 | +3% |
| 2026 YTD | $26.2 | $46.5 | +77% |
STM has the edge over MSFT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.