MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
PENG
Penguin Solutions, Inc.
PENG has a slight edge over MSFT overall, supported by stronger modeled upside.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
PENG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Weak | |
| Healthy |
PENG's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its cash flow is weak.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT's PE is in its cheap range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 25x next year's earnings.
PENG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 11x | $50.10 | — |
| Current | 19x | $50.10 | — |
| Cheap | 36x | $93.86 | +87% |
| Fair | 66x | $171 | +240% |
| Expensive | 83x | $215 | +330% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PENG has the edge over MSFT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
PENG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
PENG has the edge over MSFT on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $19.15 over the past year, up 36% from the year before, and higher year over year for 14 quarters in a row.
PENG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.56 | +76% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.59 | +793% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.41 | +$1.69 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.72 | +$0.89 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.23 | +$0.75 |
| Q3 2025 | $0.29 | +$1.29 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.28 | +$2.80 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.17 | +$3.51 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.52 | +$3.45 |
PENG's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $2.59 over the past year, about nine times what it earned the year before, and higher year over year for nine quarters in a row.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over PENG on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over PENG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
PENG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $566.7M | +68% |
| Q2 2026 | $478.7M | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $343M | -6.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $343.1M | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $337.9M | +8.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $324.3M | +7.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $365.5M | +28% |
| Q4 2024 | $341.1M | +24% |
PENG's revenue is growing: $567M last quarter, up 68% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | +8.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 11% | +7.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 7.5% | +2.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.7% | +0.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.7% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3% | -0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 5.1% | +6.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 5.1% | +4.6 points |
PENG's operating margin was 12% last quarter, up 8.6 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT has the edge over PENG on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
PENG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$167.4M | -$94.1M |
| Q2 2026 | -$77.6M | -185% |
| Q1 2026 | $53.3M | -24% |
| Q4 2025 | $28.2M | +135% |
| Q3 2025 | -$73.4M | -$55.4M |
| Q2 2025 | $90.9M | +20% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.5M | +$97.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $12M | -55% |
PENG's free cash flow has turned negative after years in the green: −$163M over the past year.
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has the edge over PENG on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
PENG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +16% | +9M shares |
| 1 year | +18% | +9.7M shares |
| 3 years | +15% | +8.5M shares |
| 5 years | +24% | +12.5M shares |
| Available history | +32% | +15.5M shares |
PENG has 64M diluted shares, up 18% from a year ago, despite $74M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.5M |
| Q2 2026 | $11.8M |
| Q1 2026 | $36.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $20.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $31.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $6.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $11.1M |
PENG spent $74M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 42% from the year before.
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT has the edge over PENG on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
PENG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 3.0x | Moderate |
PENG's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
PENG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 49.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 21.3 | Neutral |
PENG's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 21 (neutral).
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT is trading at 27x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
PENG PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | PENG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19x | 28x | 31% below |
| PE % | 2 | 35 | 33 pts below |
PENG has the edge over MSFT on valuation relative to its sector.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT has the edge over PENG on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
PENG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $56.0 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $56.8 | 12% below |
| 50 week MA | $41.0 | 22% above |
| 100 week MA | $30.9 | 62% above |
| 200 week MA | $25.6 | 96% above |
PENG has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8- and 20-week averages, but 96% above its 200-week average.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 7.2% so far in 2026.
PENG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $19.1 | $17.7 | -7.3% |
| 2021 | $17.7 | $33.4 | +89% |
| 2022 | $33.4 | $15.3 | -54% |
| 2023 | $15.3 | $18.9 | +24% |
| 2024 | $18.9 | $19.4 | +2.3% |
| 2025 | $19.4 | $20.3 | +4.7% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.3 | $50.1 | +147% |
PENG has the edge over MSFT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.