MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has the edge over PEGA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
PEGA
Pegasystems Inc.
PEGA offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
PEGA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
PEGA's cash flow and balance sheet are currently strong, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT has the edge over PEGA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
PEGA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 14x | $32.04 | — |
| Cheap | 26x | $30.01 | -6.3% |
| Current | 28x | $32.04 | — |
| Fair | 46x | $53.25 | +66% |
| Expensive | 75x | $86.65 | +170% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PEGA's PE is in its cheap range at 28x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 14x.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
MSFT has the edge over PEGA on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
PEGA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect PEGA's earnings, revenue and profitability to hold roughly steady.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $19.15 over the past year, up 36% from the year before, and higher year over year for 14 quarters in a row.
PEGA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.34 | +103% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.15 | -25% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.31 | +7.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.40 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.67 | +198% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.54 | +123% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.22 | +67% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.08 | +157% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.56 | +56% |
PEGA earned $1.15 per share over the past year, down 25% from the year before.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over PEGA on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over PEGA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
PEGA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $393.4M | +3.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $420.7M | +9.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $430M | -9.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $504.3M | +2.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $381.4M | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $384.5M | +9.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $475.6M | +44% |
| Q4 2024 | $490.8M | +3.5% |
PEGA's revenue has held roughly level: $393M last quarter, up 3.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.8% | 0 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4% | -0.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.6% | -18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 21% | -8.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8% | +7.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.5% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | +33 points |
| Q4 2024 | 29% | -3.6 points |
PEGA's operating margin was 3.8% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
PEGA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.6M | -97% |
| Q2 2026 | $81.7M | -2.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $206.5M | +2.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $152.4M | +65% |
| Q3 2025 | $51.8M | +89% |
| Q2 2025 | $84.1M | +117% |
| Q1 2025 | $202.3M | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $92.4M | +19% |
PEGA has the edge over MSFT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has 7.4B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
PEGA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.8% | -3.1M shares |
| 1 year | -8.4% | -15.5M shares |
| 3 years | +1.2% | +2M shares |
| 5 years | +3.4% | +5.6M shares |
| Available history | +6.7% | +10.5M shares |
PEGA has the edge over MSFT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $65M |
| Q2 2026 | $200.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $167.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $105M |
| Q3 2025 | $143M |
| Q2 2025 | $134.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $117.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $56.8M |
PEGA spent $538M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 19% from the year before.
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
PEGA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 0.9x | Very low |
PEGA has the edge over MSFT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
PEGA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 32.6 | Neutral |
PEGA's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 33 (neutral).
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT has the edge over PEGA on valuation relative to its sector.
PEGA PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | PEGA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28x | 28x | Same PE |
| PE % | 22 | 35 | 13 pts below |
PEGA is trading at 28x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT has the edge over PEGA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
PEGA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $34.1 | 6% below |
| 20 week MA | $33.4 | 4.1% below |
| 50 week MA | $39.7 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $44.7 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.5 | 12% below |
PEGA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 12% below its 200-week average.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has the edge over PEGA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
PEGA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $39.7 | $69.3 | +75% |
| 2021 | $69.3 | $55.2 | -20% |
| 2022 | $55.2 | $17.1 | -69% |
| 2023 | $17.1 | $24.4 | +43% |
| 2024 | $24.4 | $47.2 | +93% |
| 2025 | $47.2 | $62.4 | +32% |
| 2026 YTD | $62.4 | $32.0 | -49% |
PEGA is down 49% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in four of the previous six years.