MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has the edge over NVMI overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
NVMI
Nova Ltd.
NVMI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NVMI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
NVMI's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT has the edge over NVMI in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
NVMI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $328 | — |
| Cheap | 26x | $211 | -36% |
| Fair | 39x | $313 | -4.5% |
| Current | 41x | $328 | — |
| Expensive | 54x | $433 | +32% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVMI's PE is in its fair range at 41x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 25x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
NVMI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
NVMI has the edge over MSFT on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $19.15 over the past year, up 36% from the year before, and higher year over year for 14 quarters in a row.
NVMI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.34 | +66% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.05 | +9.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.99 | +21% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.01 | +40% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.65 | +43% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.35 | +53% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.61 | +53% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.73 | +34% |
| Q3 2024 | $5.34 | +27% |
NVMI has the edge over MSFT on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $92.3B last quarter, up 19% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over NVMI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NVMI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $255M | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $235.3M | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $222.6M | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | $224.6M | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $220M | +40% |
| Q1 2025 | $213.4M | +50% |
| Q4 2024 | $194.8M | +45% |
| Q3 2024 | $179M | +39% |
NVMI has the edge over MSFT on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 30% | 0 points |
| Q1 2026 | 30% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 27% | -1.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 28% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 30% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 30% | +3.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 28% | +3.4 points |
| Q3 2024 | 28% | +1 points |
NVMI's operating margin was 30% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
NVMI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $38.4M | -10% |
| Q1 2026 | $36M | -40% |
| Q4 2025 | $48.4M | -21% |
| Q3 2025 | $66.9M | +55% |
| Q2 2025 | $42.9M | -26% |
| Q1 2025 | $59.7M | +5.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $61M | +191% |
| Q3 2024 | $43.1M | -0.2% |
NVMI has the edge over MSFT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has the edge over NVMI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
NVMI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +11K shares |
| 1 year | +7.5% | +2.4M shares |
| 3 years | +7.9% | +2.5M shares |
| 5 years | +16% | +4.6M shares |
| Available history | +21% | +6M shares |
NVMI has 34M diluted shares, up 7.5% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $15M |
| Q3 2025 | $55M |
| Q2 2025 | $96,440 |
| Q1 2025 | $20M |
| Q4 2024 | $30M |
| Q3 2024 | — |
NVMI spent $70M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 40% from the year before.
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT has the edge over NVMI on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NVMI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.4x | Very low |
NVMI's net debt is about 2.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from less than a year a year ago.
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
NVMI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 39.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 21.0 | Neutral |
NVMI's weekly RSI is 39 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 21 (neutral).
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT has the edge over NVMI on valuation relative to its sector.
NVMI PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | NVMI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 41x | 28x | 46% above |
| PE % | 56 | 35 | 21 pts above |
NVMI is trading at 41x earnings, a 46% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT has the edge over NVMI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NVMI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $337.9 | 3% below |
| 20 week MA | $377.6 | 13% below |
| 50 week MA | $422.9 | 23% below |
| 100 week MA | $336.0 | 2.5% below |
| 200 week MA | $242.9 | 35% above |
NVMI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 35% above its 200-week average.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has the edge over NVMI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NVMI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $38.1 | $70.3 | +85% |
| 2021 | $70.3 | $137.0 | +95% |
| 2022 | $137.0 | $81.7 | -40% |
| 2023 | $81.7 | $137.4 | +68% |
| 2024 | $137.4 | $200.1 | +46% |
| 2025 | $200.1 | $330.9 | +65% |
| 2026 YTD | $330.9 | $327.6 | -1% |
NVMI has finished higher in five of the last six years, four of them by more than 50%. It's down 1% so far in 2026.