MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
NTCT
NetScout Systems, Inc.
NTCT has a slight edge over MSFT overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NTCT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
NTCT's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently strong, and its revenue is stable.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT's PE is in its cheap range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 25x next year's earnings.
NTCT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 12x | $32.55 | — |
| Current | 18x | $32.55 | — |
| Cheap | 24x | $42.31 | +30% |
| Fair | 43x | $75.24 | +131% |
| Expensive | 111x | $196 | +501% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NTCT has the edge over MSFT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
NTCT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
NTCT has the edge over MSFT on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over NTCT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NTCT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.76 | +57% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.76 | +41% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.64 | +59% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.30 | +$6.42 |
| Q4 2025 | $1.33 | +$7.16 |
| Q3 2025 | $1.25 | +$9.62 |
| Q2 2025 | $1.03 | +$9.24 |
| Q1 2025 | -$5.12 | -$3.05 |
| Q4 2024 | -$5.83 | -$4.15 |
NTCT earned $1.76 per share over the past year, up 41% from the year before.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over NTCT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over NTCT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NTCT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $222.2M | +1.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $210.4M | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $203M | -1% |
| Q4 2025 | $250.7M | -0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $219M | +15% |
| Q2 2025 | $186.7M | +7% |
| Q1 2025 | $205M | +0.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $252M | +16% |
NTCT's revenue fell from its 2022 peak and has held roughly level since: $222M last quarter, up 1.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 17% | +2.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.9% | +10 points |
| Q1 2026 | 9.7% | 0 points |
| Q4 2025 | 26% | +1.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 15% | +7.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | -3.5% | +262 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9.7% | +28 points |
| Q4 2024 | 24% | +86 points |
NTCT's operating margin was 17% last quarter, up 2.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
NTCT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$15.8M | -457% |
| Q2 2026 | $47.3M | -34% |
| Q1 2026 | $150.1M | +7.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $59.3M | +50% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.4M | +$9M |
| Q2 2025 | $71.7M | +93% |
| Q1 2025 | $140.1M | +52% |
| Q4 2024 | $39.6M | +211% |
NTCT has the edge over MSFT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has the edge over NTCT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
NTCT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -660K shares |
| 1 year | +1.4% | +1M shares |
| 3 years | +1.6% | +1.1M shares |
| 5 years | -1.5% | -1.2M shares |
| Available history | -1% | -763K shares |
NTCT has 74M diluted shares, up 1.4% from a year ago, despite $106M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $77M |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $29.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $1,000 |
| Q3 2025 | $16.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $15M |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
NTCT spent $106M buying back its own shares over the past year, about three times what it spent the year before.
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
NTCT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -3.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -3.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -3.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -3.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2023 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2023 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
NTCT has the edge over MSFT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
NTCT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.1 | Oversold |
NTCT's weekly RSI is 39 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 18 (oversold).
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT is trading at 27x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
NTCT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | NTCT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 28x | 34% below |
| PE % | 0 | 35 | 35 pts below |
NTCT has the edge over MSFT on valuation relative to its sector.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT has the edge over NTCT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NTCT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $37.7 | 14% below |
| 20 week MA | $38.9 | 16% below |
| 50 week MA | $35.0 | 7% below |
| 100 week MA | $29.2 | 11% above |
| 200 week MA | $26.6 | 22% above |
NTCT has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 22% above its 200-week average.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 7.2% so far in 2026.
NTCT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $24.0 | $27.7 | +15% |
| 2021 | $27.7 | $33.2 | +20% |
| 2022 | $33.2 | $32.6 | -1.8% |
| 2023 | $32.6 | $22.0 | -33% |
| 2024 | $22.0 | $21.7 | -1.4% |
| 2025 | $21.7 | $27.9 | +29% |
| 2026 YTD | $27.9 | $32.6 | +17% |
NTCT has the edge over MSFT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.