MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over WU overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
WU
The Western Union Company
WU trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
WU Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
WU's revenue and profitability are currently stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like WU.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
WU PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 4.6x | $6.65 | — |
| Cheap | 4.8x | $5.02 | -25% |
| Current | 6.3x | $6.65 | — |
| Fair | 6.8x | $7.12 | +7.1% |
| Expensive | 11x | $11.13 | +67% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
WU has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over WU on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
WU Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Decline | |
| Stable | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect WU's earnings and profitability to decline, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over WU on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
WU Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.44 | +37% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.05 | -54% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.23 | -54% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.36 | -49% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.52 | -45% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.30 | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.65 | +63% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.69 | +59% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.74 | +63% |
WU's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.05 over the past year, against $2.74 in late 2024.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over WU on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over WU on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
WU Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1B | -2.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1B | -1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $982.7M | -0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | -4.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $1B | -0.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $1B | -3.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $983.6M | -6.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B | +0.6% |
WU's revenue fell from its 2019 peak and has held roughly level since: $1B last quarter, down 2.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 13% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | -5.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | -5.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 18% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 20% | +3.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 19% | +0.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 17% | +1.7 points |
WU's operating margin was 13% last quarter, down 6.6 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
WU Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $99.9M | -60% |
| Q2 2026 | $94.6M | +$102.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $102.6M | -29% |
| Q4 2025 | $115.5M | -3.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $252.7M | +23% |
| Q2 2025 | -$7.8M | +$31.1M |
| Q1 2025 | $144.8M | +74% |
| Q4 2024 | $119.7M | -54% |
WU has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
WU Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -100K shares |
| 1 year | -2.9% | -9.3M shares |
| 3 years | -16% | -61.5M shares |
| 5 years | -23% | -94.5M shares |
| Available history | -26% | -111M shares |
WU has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $11.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $52.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $26.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $52.3M |
| Q2 2025 | $79.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $76.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $3.7M |
WU spent $92M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 57% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
WU Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
WU has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
WU Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 44.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 38.7 | Neutral |
WU's weekly RSI is 44 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 39 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
WU PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | WU | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.3x | 13x | 51% below |
| PE % | 42 | 63 | 21 pts below |
WU has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over WU on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
WU Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $6.31 | 5.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $6.96 | 4.5% below |
| 50 week MA | $8.17 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $8.77 | 24% below |
| 200 week MA | $10.5 | 37% below |
WU has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 37% below its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over WU on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
WU Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $27.4 | $21.9 | -20% |
| 2021 | $21.9 | $17.8 | -19% |
| 2022 | $17.8 | $13.8 | -22% |
| 2023 | $13.8 | $11.9 | -14% |
| 2024 | $11.9 | $10.7 | -10% |
| 2025 | $10.7 | $9.40 | -12% |
| 2026 YTD | $9.40 | $6.65 | -29% |
WU has finished every year since 2020 lower, and it's down 29% so far in 2026.