MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over WTW overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
WTW
Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company
WTW offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
WTW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
WTW's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like WTW.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over WTW in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
WTW PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 13x | $208 | -37% |
| Forward | 15x | $329 | — |
| Current | 20x | $329 | — |
| Fair | 23x | $368 | +12% |
| Expensive | 27x | $441 | +34% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
WTW's PE is in its fair range at 20x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 15x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
WTW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for WTW, with profitability improving.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over WTW on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
WTW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $21.62 | +33% |
| Q3 2026 | $16.27 | -23% |
| Q2 2026 | $16.14 | +976% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.03 | +$17.49 |
| Q4 2025 | $16.26 | +$17.22 |
| Q3 2025 | $21.05 | +$28.40 |
| Q2 2025 | $1.50 | -86% |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.46 | -105% |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.96 | -110% |
WTW's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $16.27 over the past year, against $32.78 in late 2021.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over WTW on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over WTW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
WTW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.5B | +7.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.5B | +9.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B | +8.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.9B | -3.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.3B | 0% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.3B | -0.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.2B | -5% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | +4.2% |
WTW's revenue is recovering but still below its 2024 peak: $2.5B last quarter, up 7.5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 17% | -0.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 15% | -1.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 19% | -0.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 35% | +4.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 18% | +52 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 19% | +7.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +3 points |
WTW's operating margin was 17% last quarter, down 0.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
WTW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $675M | +8.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $425M | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | -$65M | +$21M |
| Q4 2025 | $708M | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $621M | +29% |
| Q2 2025 | $303M | -26% |
| Q1 2025 | -$86M | -458% |
| Q4 2024 | $599M | +15% |
WTW has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
WTW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | -4.1% | -4M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -11M shares |
| 5 years | -27% | -35M shares |
| Available history | -28% | -36M shares |
WTW has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $220M |
| Q2 2026 | $450M |
| Q1 2026 | $300M |
| Q4 2025 | $350M |
| Q3 2025 | $600M |
| Q2 2025 | $500M |
| Q1 2025 | $200M |
| Q4 2024 | $395M |
WTW spent $1.3B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 22% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
WTW Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.2x | Elevated |
WTW has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
WTW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 58.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 64.5 | Neutral |
WTW's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 65 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over WTW on valuation relative to its sector.
WTW PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | WTW | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20x | 13x | 55% above |
| PE % | 38 | 63 | 25 pts below |
WTW is trading at 20x earnings, a 55% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
WTW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $312.7 | 5.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $316.2 | 4% above |
| 50 week MA | $302.5 | 8.7% above |
| 100 week MA | $311.7 | 5.5% above |
| 200 week MA | $282.0 | 17% above |
WTW has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over WTW on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
WTW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $201.8 | $211.8 | +5% |
| 2021 | $211.8 | $236.5 | +12% |
| 2022 | $236.5 | $244.4 | +3.4% |
| 2023 | $244.4 | $241.2 | -1.3% |
| 2024 | $241.2 | $316.3 | +31% |
| 2025 | $316.3 | $334.6 | +5.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $334.6 | $328.8 | -1.7% |
WTW has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 1.7% so far in 2026.