MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
VLY
Valley National Bancorp
VLY has the edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
VLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
VLY's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like VLY.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
VLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 8.5x | $10.70 | -26% |
| Forward | 9.8x | $14.38 | — |
| Current | 11x | $14.38 | — |
| Fair | 12x | $14.81 | +3% |
| Expensive | 13x | $16.91 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
VLY has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
VLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for VLY, with profitability improving.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over VLY on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
VLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.46 | +16% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.26 | +43% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.18 | +51% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.11 | +61% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.01 | +46% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.88 | +42% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.78 | +9.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.69 | -19% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.69 | -27% |
VLY earned $1.26 per share over the past year, up 43% from the year before.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over VLY on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
VLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $584.2M | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $560.7M | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $540.4M | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $541.2M | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | $511.1M | +8.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $495M | +9.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $478.4M | +5.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $474.2M | +5.4% |
VLY's revenue has grown year over year for nine quarters in a row: $584M last quarter, up 14% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 42% | +0.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 39% | +4.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 39% | +9.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 41% | +22 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +14 points |
| Q2 2025 | 35% | +14 points |
| Q1 2025 | 29% | +0.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | -1 points |
VLY has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
VLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $378.4M | +16011% |
| Q2 2026 | $160.2M | +2.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $208.2M | +$228.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $187.5M | -51% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.3M | +$162.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $156M | -26% |
| Q1 2025 | -$20.2M | -121% |
| Q4 2024 | $385.8M | +$668.8M |
VLY has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over VLY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
VLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -691K shares |
| 1 year | -1.3% | -7.4M shares |
| 3 years | +9.2% | +47M shares |
| 5 years | +36% | +147M shares |
| Available history | +55% | +197M shares |
VLY has 556M diluted shares, down 1.3% from a year ago, with $153M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $34.6M |
| Q2 2026 | $20.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $51.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $46.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $12M |
| Q2 2025 | $2.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $2.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $390,000 |
VLY spent $153M buying back its own shares over the past year, about nine times what it spent the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
VLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
VLY has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
VLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 58.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 67.1 | Neutral |
VLY's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 67 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
VLY PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | VLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11x | 13x | 12% below |
| PE % | 44 | 63 | 19 pts below |
VLY has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
VLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.5 | 6.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $14.0 | 2.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $13.3 | 8.2% above |
| 100 week MA | $11.5 | 26% above |
| 200 week MA | $10.2 | 42% above |
VLY has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
VLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.4 | $9.71 | -15% |
| 2021 | $9.71 | $13.6 | +40% |
| 2022 | $13.6 | $11.5 | -15% |
| 2023 | $11.5 | $10.9 | -5.4% |
| 2024 | $10.9 | $9.12 | -16% |
| 2025 | $9.12 | $12.0 | +31% |
| 2026 YTD | $12.0 | $14.4 | +20% |
VLY has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.