MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has a slight edge over VEL overall, supported by stronger fundamentals.
VEL
Velocity Financial, Inc.
VEL has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
VEL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Unavailable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
VEL's profitability is currently strong. There isn't enough data to rate its revenue. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like VEL.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
VEL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 5.4x | $16.11 | — |
| Current | 5.8x | $16.11 | — |
| Cheap | 7.8x | $21.75 | +35% |
| Fair | 10x | $28.86 | +79% |
| Expensive | 12x | $33.92 | +111% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
VEL has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over VEL on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
VEL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for VEL, but weaker profitability.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over VEL on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
VEL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.00 | +7.9% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.78 | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.76 | +25% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.81 | +46% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.75 | +44% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.41 | +30% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.20 | +25% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.93 | +14% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.91 | +26% |
VEL's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $2.78 over the past year, up 15% from the year before, and higher year over year for 16 quarters in a row.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
VEL Quarterly Revenue
VEL and MS do not have enough comparable growth data to identify a winner.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2020 | 22% | N/A |
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS has the edge over VEL on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
VEL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$12.3M | -208% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.6M | -52% |
| Q1 2026 | $12M | +248% |
| Q4 2025 | -$4.5M | -114% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.4M | +$29M |
| Q2 2025 | $7.6M | -33% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.5M | -67% |
| Q4 2024 | $33.2M | +27% |
VEL's free cash flow was −$1M over the past year, against $56M the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like VEL.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over VEL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
VEL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +155K shares |
| 1 year | +1.7% | +659K shares |
| 3 years | +14% | +4.7M shares |
| 5 years | +15% | +5.2M shares |
| Available history | +96% | +19.4M shares |
VEL has 39M diluted shares, up 1.7% from a year ago, despite $8M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $361,000 |
| Q2 2026 | $2.7M |
| Q1 2026 | $4.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $1,000 |
| Q3 2025 | $179,000 |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | $266,000 |
| Q1 2024 | $1.3M |
VEL spent $8M buying back its own shares over the past year.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
VEL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
VEL has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
VEL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 46.0 | Neutral |
VEL's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 46 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
VEL PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | VEL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.8x | 13x | 56% below |
| PE % | 2 | 64 | 62 pts below |
VEL has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over VEL on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
VEL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $15.5 | 3.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $16.9 | 4.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $18.0 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $18.1 | 11% below |
| 200 week MA | $16.5 | 2.1% below |
VEL has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 2.1% below its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over VEL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
VEL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $13.5 | $6.28 | -54% |
| 2021 | $6.28 | $13.3 | +112% |
| 2022 | $13.3 | $9.55 | -28% |
| 2023 | $9.55 | $17.2 | +80% |
| 2024 | $17.2 | $19.7 | +14% |
| 2025 | $19.7 | $19.5 | -0.9% |
| 2026 YTD | $19.5 | $16.1 | -17% |
VEL's yearly returns have swung widely, from +112% in 2021 to −54% in 2020. It's down 17% so far in 2026.