MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over VCTR overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
VCTR
Victory Capital Holdings, Inc.
VCTR offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
VCTR Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
VCTR's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like VCTR.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over VCTR in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
VCTR PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.9x | $43.06 | -65% |
| Fair | 11x | $59.64 | -52% |
| Forward | 15x | $124 | — |
| Expensive | 17x | $92.20 | -26% |
| Current | 23x | $124 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
VCTR's PE is in its expensive range at 23x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 15x next year's earnings.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
VCTR Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for VCTR, with profitability improving.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over VCTR on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
VCTR Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $8.47 | +55% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.45 | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.45 | +34% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.45 | -1.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.08 | -6.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.93 | -2% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.06 | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.50 | +38% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.38 | +40% |
VCTR earned $5.45 per share over the past year, up 39% from the year before.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
VCTR Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $396.6M | +9.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $435.4M | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $388M | +77% |
| Q4 2025 | $374.1M | +61% |
| Q3 2025 | $361.2M | +60% |
| Q2 2025 | $351.2M | +60% |
| Q1 2025 | $219.6M | +1.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $232.4M | +13% |
VCTR has the edge over MS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 35% | -3.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q1 2026 | 41% | -1.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 41% | -7.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 38% | -15 points |
| Q2 2025 | 27% | -24 points |
| Q1 2025 | 42% | +3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 48% | +6.2 points |
VCTR has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
VCTR Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $222.4M | +35% |
| Q2 2026 | $134.2M | +$141.7M |
| Q1 2026 | $120.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $144.5M | +58% |
| Q3 2025 | $164.8M | +66% |
| Q2 2025 | -$7.5M | -109% |
| Q1 2025 | $79.5M | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $91.7M | -4.8% |
VCTR has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
VCTR Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.5% | -311K shares |
| 1 year | -6.7% | -4.5M shares |
| 3 years | -7.7% | -5.2M shares |
| 5 years | -16% | -11.6M shares |
| Available history | -15% | -11M shares |
VCTR has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $6.5M |
| Q2 2026 | $91.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $127.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $50.7M |
| Q3 2025 | $118.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $26M |
| Q1 2025 | $451,000 |
| Q4 2024 | $96.9M |
VCTR spent $276M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 14% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
VCTR Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.8x | Healthy |
VCTR has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
VCTR Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 71.9 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 72.5 | Neutral |
VCTR's weekly RSI is 72 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 72 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over VCTR on valuation relative to its sector.
VCTR PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | VCTR | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 13x | 75% above |
| PE % | 99 | 63 | 36 pts above |
VCTR is trading at 23x earnings, a 75% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
VCTR Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $113.1 | 10% above |
| 20 week MA | $108.5 | 15% above |
| 50 week MA | $87.3 | 43% above |
| 100 week MA | $75.7 | 64% above |
| 200 week MA | $58.3 | 114% above |
VCTR has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
VCTR Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $20.9 | $23.8 | +14% |
| 2021 | $23.8 | $36.7 | +54% |
| 2022 | $36.7 | $27.2 | -26% |
| 2023 | $27.2 | $34.4 | +27% |
| 2024 | $34.4 | $66.3 | +92% |
| 2025 | $66.3 | $64.3 | -3% |
| 2026 YTD | $64.3 | $124.4 | +94% |
VCTR has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.