MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over UWMC overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
UWMC
UWM Holdings Corporation
UWMC trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
UWMC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
UWMC's revenue is currently healthy, and its profitability is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like UWMC.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over UWMC in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
UWMC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 0.5x | $0.04 | -97% |
| Fair | 1.2x | $0.10 | -92% |
| Forward | 9.3x | $1.27 | — |
| Current | 16x | $1.27 | — |
| Expensive | 59x | $4.69 | +269% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UWMC's PE is in its fair range at 16x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 9.3x.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over UWMC on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
UWMC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong decline | |
| Decline | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect UWMC's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
UWMC Earnings Per Share
UWMC and MS do not have enough comparable growth data to identify a winner.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over UWMC on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
UWMC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $811.1M | -3.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $888M | +17% |
| Q1 2026 | $901.4M | +47% |
| Q4 2025 | $945.2M | +69% |
| Q3 2025 | $843.3M | +60% |
| Q2 2025 | $758.7M | +50% |
| Q1 2025 | $613.4M | +7.6% |
| Q3 2024 | $526.4M | -22% |
UWMC's revenue is growing: $811M last quarter, down 3.8% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 28% | +26 points |
| Q2 2026 | -53% | -97 points |
| Q1 2026 | 20% | +62 points |
| Q4 2025 | 18% | +10 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.5% | -4.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 43% | +28 points |
| Q1 2025 | -43% | -75 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.6% | N/A |
UWMC's operating margin was 28% last quarter, up 26 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
UWMC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $14.2M | +$3.1B |
| Q2 2026 | $334.6M | +$624.6M |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.2B | -490% |
| Q4 2025 | $82M | +$633.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.1B | -$899.1M |
| Q2 2025 | -$290.1M | +$1B |
| Q1 2025 | $576.1M | +$2.8B |
| Q3 2024 | -$2.2B | -745% |
UWMC has the edge over MS on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over UWMC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
UWMC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.7% | +5.8M shares |
| 1 year | +70% | +141M shares |
UWMC has 343M diluted shares, up 70% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | $60.6M |
| Q3 2021 | $15.3M |
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS has the edge over UWMC on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
UWMC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 16.2x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 8.2x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 16.8x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 12.0x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.9x | High |
| Q3 2023 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q2 2023 | 3.4x | Elevated |
UWMC's net debt is about 16 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 12 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like UWMC.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
UWMC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 34.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 47.8 | Neutral |
UWMC's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 48 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over UWMC on valuation relative to its sector.
UWMC PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | UWMC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 13x | 22% above |
| PE % | 54 | 64 | 10 pts below |
UWMC is trading at 16x earnings, a 22% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over UWMC on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
UWMC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1.30 | 2.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $1.51 | 16% below |
| 50 week MA | $3.02 | 58% below |
| 100 week MA | $4.17 | 70% below |
| 200 week MA | $5.24 | 76% below |
UWMC is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 76% below its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over UWMC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
UWMC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.30 | $12.8 | +37% |
| 2021 | $12.8 | $6.38 | -50% |
| 2022 | $6.38 | $3.56 | -44% |
| 2023 | $3.56 | $7.15 | +101% |
| 2024 | $7.15 | $5.78 | -19% |
| 2025 | $5.78 | $4.59 | -21% |
| 2026 YTD | $4.59 | $1.27 | -72% |
UWMC's yearly returns have swung widely, from +101% in 2023 to −50% in 2021. It's down 72% so far in 2026.