MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
UVE
Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc.
UVE has a slight edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
UVE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
UVE's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like UVE.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
UVE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 6.1x | $48.57 | — |
| Cheap | 7x | $55.89 | +15% |
| Fair | 10x | $82.24 | +69% |
| Forward | 13x | $48.57 | — |
| Expensive | 24x | $195 | +302% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UVE has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over UVE on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
UVE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong decline | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect UVE's earnings and profitability to decline, with its revenue holding steady.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
UVE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.88 | -51% |
| Q3 2026 | $8.00 | +89% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.58 | +231% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.75 | +195% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.31 | +217% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.24 | +72% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.29 | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.29 | -10% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.99 | -9.5% |
UVE earned $8.00 per share over the past year, up 89% from the year before.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over UVE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over UVE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
UVE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $439.3M | +9.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $427M | +6.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $393.6M | -0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $407.9M | +6% |
| Q3 2025 | $401M | +3.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $400.1M | +5.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $394.9M | +7.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $384.8M | +2.5% |
UVE's revenue is growing: $439M last quarter, up 9.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 16% | +2.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | +7.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | +4.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 22% | +20 points |
| Q3 2025 | 13% | +18 points |
| Q2 2025 | 12% | -1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 14% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 1.9% | -5 points |
UVE's operating margin was 16% last quarter, up 2.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
UVE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $82M | +34% |
| Q2 2026 | $100.2M | -4.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $153.2M | -17% |
| Q4 2025 | $25M | +$127.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $61.3M | -24% |
| Q2 2025 | $105.2M | +47% |
| Q1 2025 | $185.5M | +133% |
| Q4 2024 | -$102.2M | -$101.4M |
UVE has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over UVE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
UVE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +142K shares |
| 1 year | +1.3% | +377K shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -432K shares |
| 5 years | -6.9% | -2.2M shares |
| Available history | -15% | -5M shares |
UVE has 29M diluted shares, up 1.3% from a year ago, despite $26M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $7.5M |
| Q2 2026 | $4.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $7.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $6.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $8.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $7.4M |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $7.7M |
UVE spent $26M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 12% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
UVE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -3.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
UVE has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
UVE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 66.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 69.2 | Neutral |
UVE's weekly RSI is 66 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 69 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
UVE PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | UVE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.1x | 13x | 53% below |
| PE % | 10 | 63 | 53 pts below |
UVE has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
UVE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $46.5 | 4.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $44.3 | 9.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $38.5 | 26% above |
| 100 week MA | $31.7 | 53% above |
| 200 week MA | $24.6 | 98% above |
UVE has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
UVE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $28.0 | $14.8 | -47% |
| 2021 | $14.8 | $16.8 | +14% |
| 2022 | $16.8 | $11.0 | -35% |
| 2023 | $11.0 | $16.0 | +46% |
| 2024 | $16.0 | $20.6 | +29% |
| 2025 | $20.6 | $33.8 | +64% |
| 2026 YTD | $33.8 | $48.6 | +44% |
UVE has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.