MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has a slight edge over USB overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
USB
U.S. Bancorp
USB offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
USB Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
USB's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like USB.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
USB PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 10x | $51.43 | -15% |
| Forward | 11x | $60.47 | — |
| Fair | 12x | $60.09 | -0.6% |
| Current | 12x | $60.47 | — |
| Expensive | 14x | $71.44 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
USB has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
USB Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for USB, with profitability improving.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over USB on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
USB Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.70 | +11% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.13 | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.01 | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.77 | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.62 | +22% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.37 | +34% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.18 | +33% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.04 | +34% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.79 | +16% |
USB's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $5.13 over the past year, up 17% from the year before, and higher year over year for eight quarters in a row.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over USB on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
USB Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $7.9B | +8.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.7B | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.3B | +4.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.3B | +5.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.3B | +6.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $7B | +2% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.9B | +3.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $7B | +3.7% |
USB's revenue has grown year over year for eight quarters in a row: $7.9B last quarter, up 8.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 35% | +0.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 35% | +2.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 33% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 35% | +4.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 35% | +4.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 33% | +2.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +6.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +15 points |
USB has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
USB Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.8B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.8B | +137% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.3B | +$1.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $2.8B | -40% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.4B | +249% |
| Q2 2025 | $2B | -29% |
| Q1 2025 | -$285M | -111% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.8B | +1046% |
USB has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over USB on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
USB Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +4M shares |
| 1 year | +0.1% | +2M shares |
| 3 years | +0.6% | +10M shares |
| 5 years | +5.1% | +75M shares |
| Available history | -1.5% | -24M shares |
USB has 1.6B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1M |
| Q2 2026 | $201M |
| Q1 2026 | $276M |
| Q4 2025 | $122M |
| Q3 2025 | $101M |
| Q2 2025 | $106M |
| Q1 2025 | $160M |
| Q4 2024 | $122M |
USB spent $600M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 23% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
USB Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -2.9x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -5.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -4.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -3.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -4.6x | Net Cash |
USB has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
USB Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 39.8 | Neutral |
USB's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 40 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
USB PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | USB | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 13x | 9.4% below |
| PE % | 51 | 63 | 12 pts below |
USB has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
USB Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $59.0 | 2.6% above |
| 20 week MA | $61.3 | 1.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $57.6 | 4.9% above |
| 100 week MA | $51.7 | 17% above |
| 200 week MA | $46.1 | 31% above |
USB has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
USB Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $59.7 | $46.5 | -22% |
| 2021 | $46.5 | $56.3 | +21% |
| 2022 | $56.3 | $43.2 | -23% |
| 2023 | $43.2 | $43.3 | +0.2% |
| 2024 | $43.3 | $48.5 | +12% |
| 2025 | $48.5 | $55.0 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $55.0 | $60.5 | +10% |
USB has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.