MS
Morgan Stanley
MS offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
UMBF
UMB Financial Corporation
UMBF has the edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
UMBF Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
UMBF's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like UMBF.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
UMBF PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 9.7x | $133 | — |
| Cheap | 10x | $135 | +0.9% |
| Current | 10x | $133 | — |
| Fair | 12x | $160 | +20% |
| Expensive | 14x | $188 | +41% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UMBF has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over UMBF on the outlook, with more favorable valuation expectations.
UMBF Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for UMBF, with profitability improving.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over UMBF on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
UMBF Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.71 | +2.5% |
| Q3 2026 | $13.37 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.17 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.43 | +44% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.29 | +3.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.83 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.70 | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.95 | +5.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.99 | +25% |
UMBF's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $13.37 over the past year, up 51% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
UMBF Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $772.4M | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $778M | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $739.2M | +31% |
| Q4 2025 | $720.9M | +66% |
| Q3 2025 | $678.3M | +67% |
| Q2 2025 | $689.2M | +77% |
| Q1 2025 | $563.8M | +41% |
| Q4 2024 | $434.2M | +17% |
UMBF has the edge over MS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 44% | +9.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +5.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +28 points |
| Q4 2025 | 38% | +4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 35% | +1.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 40% | +7.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 17% | -17 points |
| Q4 2024 | 33% | +12 points |
UMBF has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
UMBF Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $358.9M | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $330.8M | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | $356.8M | +0.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $95.3M | +$172.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $257.8M | +119% |
| Q2 2025 | $270.8M | +154% |
| Q1 2025 | $354.2M | +559% |
| Q4 2024 | -$77.1M | -195% |
UMBF has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over UMBF on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
UMBF Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +112K shares |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +137K shares |
| 3 years | +57% | +27.8M shares |
| 5 years | +57% | +27.8M shares |
| Available history | +56% | +27.4M shares |
UMBF has 77M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $5.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $32.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $79,000 |
| Q3 2025 | $1.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $290,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $15.4M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
UMBF spent $38M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 116% from the year before.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
UMBF Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -3.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -3.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -4.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -7.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -9.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -13.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -17.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -13.6x | Net Cash |
UMBF has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
UMBF Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 48.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 30.0 | Neutral |
UMBF's weekly RSI is 48 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 30 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
UMBF PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | UMBF | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 13x | 23% below |
| PE % | 15 | 63 | 48 pts below |
UMBF has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
UMBF Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $133.2 | 0.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $139.6 | 4.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $129.9 | 2.8% above |
| 100 week MA | $119.4 | 12% above |
| 200 week MA | $100.2 | 33% above |
UMBF has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
UMBF Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $68.8 | $69.2 | +0.5% |
| 2021 | $69.2 | $105.2 | +52% |
| 2022 | $105.2 | $82.2 | -22% |
| 2023 | $82.2 | $83.6 | +1.7% |
| 2024 | $83.6 | $113.7 | +36% |
| 2025 | $113.7 | $118.9 | +4.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $118.9 | $133.5 | +12% |
UMBF has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.