MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
UFCS
United Fire Group, Inc.
UFCS has a slight edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
UFCS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
UFCS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like UFCS.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
UFCS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 8.9x | $46.41 | -9.5% |
| Current | 9.8x | $51.30 | — |
| Fair | 11x | $59.07 | +15% |
| Forward | 11x | $51.30 | — |
| Expensive | 44x | $229 | +347% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UFCS has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over UFCS on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and profitability expectations.
UFCS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for UFCS, with profitability holding steady.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
UFCS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.63 | -11% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.23 | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.38 | +53% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.96 | +95% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.48 | +87% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.25 | +119% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.52 | +146% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.54 | +$3.23 |
| Q4 2024 | $2.39 | +$3.57 |
UFCS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $5.23 over the past year, up 23% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over UFCS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over UFCS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
UFCS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $391.6M | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $383.7M | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $369.4M | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $365.8M | +9.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $354M | +9.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $335.5M | +11% |
| Q1 2025 | $331.1M | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $333.2M | +16% |
UFCS's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $392M last quarter, up 11% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | -2.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 11% | +2.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 10% | +3.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 13% | +1.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | +6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7% | +9.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 6.6% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 12% | +3.5 points |
UFCS's operating margin was 11% last quarter, down 2.3 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
UFCS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $101.1M | +66% |
| Q2 2026 | $34.2M | -36% |
| Q1 2026 | $56.6M | +59% |
| Q4 2025 | $119.8M | -23% |
| Q3 2025 | $60.8M | +7.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $53.4M | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $35.7M | -1.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $156.4M | +603% |
UFCS has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over UFCS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
UFCS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1% | +271K shares |
| 1 year | -0.8% | -201K shares |
| 3 years | +2.3% | +587K shares |
| 5 years | +4.3% | +1.1M shares |
| Available history | +2.3% | +584K shares |
UFCS has 26M diluted shares, down 0.8% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | $1,000 |
| Q3 2021 | $1M |
| Q2 2021 | $1M |
| Q1 2021 | $7,000 |
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
UFCS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -2.3x | Net Cash |
UFCS has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
UFCS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 44.4 | Neutral |
UFCS's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 44 (neutral).
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
UFCS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | UFCS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.8x | 13x | 25% below |
| PE % | 31 | 63 | 32 pts below |
UFCS has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
UFCS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $54.1 | 5.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $53.7 | 4.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $45.5 | 13% above |
| 100 week MA | $37.3 | 38% above |
| 200 week MA | $30.1 | 71% above |
UFCS has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8- and 20-week averages, but 71% above its 200-week average.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.
UFCS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $43.2 | $24.5 | -43% |
| 2021 | $24.5 | $23.3 | -4.9% |
| 2022 | $23.3 | $28.4 | +22% |
| 2023 | $28.4 | $20.1 | -29% |
| 2024 | $20.1 | $28.5 | +42% |
| 2025 | $28.5 | $36.4 | +28% |
| 2026 YTD | $36.4 | $51.3 | +41% |
UFCS has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.